Earlier today I heard a bit of an interview with Peter Gammons on WEEI and he discussed some interesting topics, but the one that really caught my attention was the discussion on Jacoby Ellsbury. Gammons believed the Red Sox should and are contemplating a move for Ellsbury to left field. I have done some research into this before, but there was a new argument for doing this.
Gammons believes that stealing 70 bases is beating up Ellsbury and making him less effective defensively. His reasoning is a comment he attributed to Rickey Henderson that I have been unable to locate. Henderson claims that his extensive number of steals was beating up his body and effecting his ability to man center field.
Perhaps this is real and should be something we should look into as Rickey did not play center field until he was 26 years old in 1985 when he joined the Yankees. His defense was very good, but did fall steadily for the next few years until 1988 when he again returned to full time left field. Interestingly he had his worst TZ rating that year in NY, but still a plus 6.
When he left New York though he is return to double digit positive TZ ratings in left field until his defense became average around 1991 at the age of 32. This seams reasonable enough, but would this beating he took amassing all the steals also effect his hitting?
When Rickey moved back to left field in 1987 he suffered through a injury plagued season and only played 95 games. This could be partially due to the position change. Will Carroll found that changing positions raises injury risk by 30%. This is a risk we would have to account for with Ellsbury as well.
If we look past the injury though there is not much evidence the move helped him offensively. Before his return to left he had an OPS of .878 in 1985-86 and was at .867 after the injury year in 1988-90. There really was no difference except for the injury he incurred in 1987.
It doesn’t seem like wear and tear is effecting the offensive output of Ellsbury either. His month by month numbers were fairly solid last year. His worst month was April before he stole 10 bases. In fact his OPS was higher in the second half of 2009.
So far this effect doesn’t seem to be something we can easily see if it’s true at all. Does the effect only hurt his defense if he’s in center field as Rickey was fine in Oakland in left field? Once again we can’t be sure and Ellsbury has much less mileage on his legs when you start comparing him to Rickey Henderson.
Some good news is while everyone has spent the last year beating Ellsbury with the UZR stick we have TZ to sedate them a bit. Now that it has been updated to include 2009 he has a career TZ number of 21 with a excellent 2008 at 23 and an average 2009 at -5. That bodes well for him in center field, but could be even better in left field.
Before we discuss moving Ellsbury we should talk about his replacement in center field. Mike Cameron has played a total of 3 defensive games in left field in his entire career. That is 77 less than Ellsbury. Then looking at his UZR numbers outside of the years in New York that included the horrific crash with Carlos Beltran he is a stellar center fielder.
All this leads me to believe that based on the current team makeup the best outfield would be Ellsbury in left, Cameron in center and J.D. Drew in right. Based on CHONE defensive projections you would have a 15 Total Zone rating, which would be much better than last year. This projection is also based on Ellsbury in center field and could be even better.
In conclusion I don’t think the wear and tear of stealing 70+ bases is enough to cause the poor defense we saw in 2009, but that isn’t to say Ellsbury wouldn’t be better in left field for all of 2010. It’s a close call with positional adjustments since center field is a +2.5 and left field is a -7.5. That is a ten run shift or one win difference meaning he need to be ten runs better defensively in left field to make up for the shift.
The same occurs to Cameron so who plays there isn’t so much a matter of the position adjustment, but more of who can play the best defense in each position. I think this is why the Red Sox are slow to name a position for either of them yet. Heading into spring training they could continue to wath the players in each spot and see who responds best.
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With the current team makeup, of course it makes sense to slide Ellsbury to LF. Unless Jeremy Hermida slugs his way into Jason Bay territory, the Sox's best offensive and defensive alignment is Ellsbury-Cameron-Drew.
I guess what I'd like to do is ask Peter Gammons how stealing so many bases affected Michael Bourn. His 61 steals didn't drag down his UZR/150 of 8.7 in CF. Nyjer Morgan's 42 SBs (in only 469 ABs) didn't negatively affect is 40.5 UZR/150 (in 56 games) in centerfield. BJ Upton, while he struggled offensively, still managed to swipe 42 bases full time in centerfield, and posted an 11.8 UZR/150
So, 3 players, no real trend yet. It's a nice hometown excuse to buffer the criticisms of his defense, nothing more. It's possible Rickey had the same problem Ellsbury does, and that his ability to analyzy flies and make decisions in centerfield is just not part of his skillset, and he's better defensively as a corner outfielder. The most simple explanation is usually the correct one. The only problem for Ellsbury, is that unless his OBP starts hitting Chone Figgins territory, his bat is clearly not cut out for a corner outfield spot.
Speed can only take you so far.
"I guess what I'd like to do is ask Peter Gammons how stealing so many bases affected Michael Bourn. His 61 steals didn't drag down his UZR/150 of 8.7 in CF. Nyjer Morgan's 42 SBs (in only 469 ABs) didn't negatively affect is 40.5 UZR/150 (in 56 games) in centerfield. BJ Upton, while he struggled offensively, still managed to swipe 42 bases full time in centerfield, and posted an 11.8 UZR/150
So, 3 players, no real trend yet. It's a nice hometown excuse to buffer the criticisms of his defense, nothing more."
Just because you dont find a trend in three players you cherry-picked doesnt mean Gammons' point is nothing more than an excuse.
I dont know if he's right about stealing bases taking its toll on CFs, but I'd imagine it would be more of a cumulative thing that happens over years of wear and tear..
Id like to see how the defense of base-stealing CFs develops in years 1-4 of MLB full time service
any stats guys want to take this on?
All I'm doing is showing a counter point to Gammons' claim. Jacoby's steals went up, his defense goes down, so the steals suddenly become the problem? I've took the next 3 high steals outfielders and their UZR/150s didn't take a sharp hit, if a hit at all.
As you surmise, any amount of wear and tear could be a detriment to a player's defense, normally because physical limitation should affect their speed, thus limiting their range. Shouldn't a base stealer, especially a young one in impeccable shape, be the opposite of this claim as an increase in steals shows sustainable speed?
We could easily pick the starting centerfielders and try and prove/disprove Gammons' response, but to just assume his defense takes a huge hit based solely on his steal count just seems too convenient, especially surrounding the criticism of his defense the general public seems to not want to accept.
i remember reading somewhere a few years back about how Coco Crisp was preparing for the next year by shagging endless flyballs on/in the sand to improve his reaction time and agility. Coco was phenomenal that next year. Now i do not know the protocols and who sets them up – whether it is up to each individual athlete to prescribe and achieve certain goals over the offseason, but if i were Ells i would be having drills to help me see those fly balls coming right at me. We seem to hear about Dice-K and his work in Arizona. When Dustin Pedroia and Youk went there they ramped up their game the next year.
Ellsbury seems to be a rare type of athlete who has innate speed. i love the effect he has whenever he is on the field, and not only because he is good looking – but because he looks great doing it! I love baseball BECAUSE i find it to be a highly emotional experience. i will never forget his steal of home against MFY. i will love it if gets to play regularly for us whatever his position. Sure, it would be great to have a big bat in LF, but if Ells discipline at the plate continues to improve i would rather see no one else leading off for us. Mostly, too, i love the idea of bringing up players from within the farm system and keeping them around if they fit. Youk, Pedey, Ells, and hopefully Lowrie (who i am thinking might be able to take over 3rd eventually), along with Papelbon and Lester + our "found" tigers like Beckett and Lackey …these guys are to me the core of the team, the heart and soul. I am excited about next year. i can't wait to see these guys who play with passion and guts pour it on.
Put Ells in LF, put him anywhere except another team's uniform. Let Theo work some magic to pull off a trade ala Cashman if he can to get Adrian, but please don't trade the heart, soul, speed and swagger away.
Amen to all of that, Donna.
I haven't read anywhere what kind of arm strength Mike Cameron has but assuming it's better than Ellsbury's it would make more sense to me to have Ellsbury in CF, Cameron in RF, and Drew in LF.
Put your two fastest outfielders in the biggest parts of the field and let them run down the balls.
No, no, no. J.D. Drew was far and away the best defensive right fielder in the majors last year, and in his tenure with Boston. That's amazing given how difficult right field can be (and center, which Drew has to back up on). I do not want to mess with this.
This may be a moot point as it looks like there is still a reasonable chance of bringing back Bay, which gives us a bit of a log jam for 2010, although I think we could make it work and have an outfield of Bay, Drew, Ellsbury, and Cameron. We could just sort of rotate through similar to 2008 when we had Crisp. After 2010, we could potentially shift Bay to DH in 2011 and have an outfield of Ellsbury (in left!), Cameron, and Drew. Just an idea, because personally I don't think that unloading Ellsbury in any kind of trade makes much sense. He'll be arbitration eligible in a year and I don't think the Padres would be interested in that, unless we can lock him up with a team friendly contract and then ship him. Considering who his agent is, that's not likely to happen, nor is it all that ethical to begin with
I agree, Kurt. If the Sox can move some payroll, Bay coudl be in the mix if he understands he's a DH start 2011. I wouldn't be surprised if Theo drops the offer down to 3/35-3/40. He won't go 4 years now knowing he has leverage.
Personally, I always felt the acquisition of Cameron was the first sign of shipping out Ellsbury.
With 4 players in the minors (Reddick, Kalish, Fuentes, Lin) with extremely similar skill sets, it seems quite odd to continue to stack the same type of player that may or may not ever have a real spot of being a difference maker, or even rosterable.
I was pleased when Jacoby improved on his OBP again this year, but still unnerved how his speed couldn't help resolve his defensive inefficiency. There are a multitude of teams in the past that have inquired about him (not just the SD possibility), and I think it's not out of the realm of possibilities that he's more valuable to the team as a tradeable commodity considering the light power/decent speed/good defense centerfielders in the system.
Granted, I'm probably sound little biased because I was an early detractor of his defense, and I tend to not put a high value on players with steals but no ISO(unless they are like Chone Figgins and can crack a 400 OBP). It's not like he's Carl Crawford and could legitimately hit 15 homeruns, or a Matt Kemp type of centerfielder that has actual out-of-position power. Also, I'd much rather hang onto young pitching (Clay) than him.
Maybe if the farm system depth was different I'd change my tune. Maybe if Reddick and Kalish were 30HR type hitters with good OBP–prototypical LFs, I'd feel more reluctant to part with Ellsbury. But I also still don't see the hype.
I need one more year to really decide if he's boom or bust. If his wOBA pops this year the way Grady's did after 2005, maybe he's something more than just another Juan Pierre clone.
To Wit:
Sizemore's wOBAs, first 3 years
.328 (159 PAs), .359(706 PAs), .386(701 PAs)
Granderson's wOBA, first 3 years
.344(174 PAs), .333(679 PAs), .395(676 PAs)
Ellsbury's wOBA first 3 years
.407(127 PAs), .333(609 PAs), .354(673 PAs)
A jump in ISO is what will do it. With all the information I have, I'm not sure that's possible. And the only reason behind his ridiculous 2007 "ZOMG HE'S FRED LYNN" talk was due to a .388 BABIP.
Color me skeptical.
I just don't see this happening. Even if they moved Lowell for Bay, they're still on the hook for Lowell. Where is money they can move? I appreciate the sentiment, but this just doesn't make sense, unless the team hocks Ellsburyt o San Diego and I just don't see that happening. I think a rotation would be a disaster.
The rotation would be a disaster, but the contract to Bay would not break the team. If he wanted back it would be on the Red Sox terms and they would have the ability to backload the deal. They could make 2010 for something like $10 million and then escalate from their. That way the big years are paid out after the contracts of Lugo, Lowell, Ortiz and Beckett are all up. Then he would be your primary DH as of 2011, but this does require moving Ellsbury, which couldn't be done unless they got equal return.
Evan, I do see your point. Possibly they could get Bay to take a heavily back-loaded deal? Also, I think I see now that shipping Ellsbury out may be for the best. I doubt San Diego would be interested in him, but maybe we could get some prospects from another team for him that we could then use midseason in an Adrian Gonzalez acquisition?
I'm not convinced that Ellsbury has the bat to play LF. On top of that LF in Fenway is so tiny that you can hide a terrible glove there without affecting the overall defense (Manny, Bay). With Reddick and Kalish knocking on the door, I think that it might be time to move Ellsbury if we can get value for him. Reddick and Kalish are as good defensively and both profile as better hitters, they won't steal nearly as many bases, but when you consider the overall package (glove, arm, bat) they look like much better players. That's not even mentioning Westmoreland who has the potential to be the best of the whole bunchConsidering that Ellsbury will turn 27 next September, I don't know that there's that much projection left in his bat.
I'd personally much rather see Hermida (who is a year younger) out there since he's 2 years removed from a season that was better than anything Ellsbury has ever put up and it seems like the park in Florida probably depressed his offensive output some. I know it's unlikely that he starts the season as the starting LF but I could easily see him outhitting Ellsbury and forcing his way in. Theo should trade Ellsbury before something like that happens and completely kills his value.
Ellsbury sealed his fate with the Red Sox when he chose Boras to represent him.
That's all fine and good. But if you had Ripkin at SS, Kent at 2B, Piazza behind the plate, Andruw Jones in CF, all in their prime, you would have tremendous offense from non-traditional positions without sacrificing defense. You could get away with lighter hitting, defensive-types at the corner positions and not care one bit.
Take the ballpark your building your team for into consideration also. Why would anybody waste J.D. Drew's defensive ability by having him play LF at Fenway or RF at Yankee stadium? Yankee stadium was called the house that Ruth built for more than one reason. Yes he contributed to the Yankee lore and mystique and brought millions to the NY fanbase by his great achievments on the field. But the field itself was built to maximize his production. Why do you think it has the smallest right field in the game? Some teams let their infield grass grow to help infielders with limited range. Some teams water down the base paths when a team that likes to run comes to town.
My whole point is there's more than 1 way to skin a cat. Tradition is fine if it's practical. But never follow it blindly. It's the total package and the bottom line that matter. Not the individual pieces vs. tradition
In addition to all that, there's the fact that the AL has the advantage of the DH. A strong bat there makes up for a weaker bat somewhere else. It doesn't really matter position it makes up for. Only the Yankees have the salad to trot out all-stars at every position. Sucks for us they're in our division. At least we have the wild card to get us in.
I like the Sox chances as they stand right now. They're already a better team than last year. There is no doubt adding Gonzalez would be huge. But I would be just as happy if Theo could land Beltre at 3 yrs <= $30million. With Cameron in CF and Ellsbury in LF, it may be one of the best overall defensive teams of all time factoring in the pitching staff. The Sox would still have all of our prospects for trade or development.
if they can't get Gonzalez, maybe they package Ellsbury and Buch in an early season deal for Miggy Cabrera (assuming the Tigers start the season worse than they finished last). that said i'd look to have Cabrera DH long term hoping to acquire a solid glove at corner INF opposite Youk.
you mean, Miggy and his mug shot? i would rather the Sox not go there – besides, he would be a salary dump on us and for these and other reasons…no…
Packing Ellsbury and Buchholz will carry a lot of weight, and that package could get Gonzales. However, the problem with that deal is simply that Hoyer probably has the same reservations(terrible pun) about Ellsbury's defense that the sabermetric community does.
I think the team's made it clear. Retaining Clay seems to be the higher priority than retaining Ellsbury. If the team believed Ellsbury was truly a long term solution, a left fielder like Holliday would have been brought in instead of Cameron.
After all the talk the previous offseason of how much the Brewers loved Jacoby, I'm still holding out hope they'll realize they can't sign Prince. The Sox would give up a much smaller amount to acquire him in comparison to Gonzales, and the difference in production between him and Gonzales may not even be significantly noticeable in Fenway.
/it won't happen, though :(
If the Sox did land Beltre at a reasonable cost, it would probably put Gonzalez out of the picture. He wouldn't have a position with Youk at 1B.
I'm not too high on Cabrera's future. I'm worried he's heading down the Andruw Jones trail.
I'm thinking best bet is go all out on the defensive side for 2010. Then with Papi, Lowell, Lugo, Tek and maybe Beckett coming off the books, you have $45million coming off the books with all your prospects. J.D. Drew and Wakefield come off in 2011 at another $18 million. Victor Martinez would look great as the new DH / back up C with Joe Mauer behind the plate if the Twins can't resign him. Then maybe you make a trade for another top of the rotation arm.
I'd aslo like to see Aroldis Chapman. Just not sure if the money is there for him and Beltre. I'd rather see the Sox spend the money on those two guys rather than Bay.
2011 – 2012 is when we should start seeing Lars Anderson, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Jose Iglesius, Reymond Fuentes, Luis Exposito, Ryan Kalish and other top prospects start to push onto the Sox roster. That should allow massive payroll flexibility, trade options, and competitiveness for years to come.
"The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades."
agree, B_isback… i agree — and, also with your comments about tradition and fielding/batting "positional expectations"! on the whole this team is already better than last year and we had some major slumps last year and still made wild card.
i drove behind a car today all decked out in Yankee swagger and smiled to myself that for all that payroll over the past 10 years…
i enjoy the rivalry and i have to admit, i am so glad i am a RS fan because for some reason i cannot fathom how i could live in such smugness as a yankee fan. yuck
Merry Christmas.
Just need to get something out. One of the greatest myths and misnomers that has perpetually surrounded baseball by everyone and his brother is positional production. People it just doesn't mean a damn where a teams production comes from as long as it's present. Statements like bob's – "I'm not convinced that Ellsbury has the bat to play LF." – tend to chafe my jewell bag. I truly mean no offense to Bob. But when is the last time a fielder had to catch a ball with his bat, or a hitter had to swing with his glove?
The prototypical team set up is strong defense up the middle – C, SS, 2B, CF. Historically this is the best foundation for solid team defense. You further enhance this with good pithcing. Historically the guys with strong defensive skills who've manned these positions haven't been great offensive forces. The corner positions – 1B, 3B, LF, RF – have been historically considered of lesser defensive priority. Teams have generally manned these positions with better offensive players.