2009 Red Sox DiamondView

Back when the DiamondView was created over at Beyond the Boxscore, I was intrigued by the visual application of statistics. The Hardball Times is doing something similar in attempting to bring visuals to statistics. Essentially, DiamondView uses a ballpark to visually show people just how good (or bad) a player was at the four major aspects of the game: hitting, power, defense and baserunning. It can be a great point of comparison method for sabermetricians and a great way for non-sabermetricians to glean value from advanced statistics. Today, the Red Sox's DiamondView was released. I'm not putting any pictures in here, so you'll have to click to see them. But a couple thoughts:

• Wow, I didn't realize how amazing Kevin Youkilis was.
• Poor Mike Lowell really is a liability at this point, eh?
• And the cult bandwagon of actually appreciating J.D. Drew gets fuller.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade SP1: Pedro Martinez

Unsurprisingly, Pedro Martinez is the ace of the All-Aughts Team of the Decade. His 1999 and 2000 season were something to behold, and he is widely considered to be one of the top three Red Sox of all time. When Petey became a free agent following the World Series in 2004, I wrote an "Ode to Pedro" that I feel is an appropriate expression of what Pedro meant to myself and to Red Sox fans as a whole (although my writing could use a lot more polish). Rather then try to hack off a decent article on Pedro, I figured I would reprint part of the article -- the part that matters. After that, I'll wrap things up now that we have more perspective on Pedro. It is difficult to truly do Pedro justice in an article -- I don't think anyone will quite be able to capture how much he meant to the Red Sox Nation and how dominant he was on the field. It wasn't just his statistics. It was watching his pitches befuddle hitters. It was his strong attitude that batters took exception to. Pedro owned the park every time he took the mound. One might argue he still owns it: even if his stuff has disappeared, people still sit up and take notice when it's his turn to pitch.

Snapshots Around the AL East

Though the Boston rumor mill may be idling at the moment, the rest of the AL East is gaining momentum. Here’s a summary of the recent rumors and additions from around the division – minus Curtis Granderson: - According to MLBTradeRumors, the Yankees are planning on adding an additional starting pitcher “by the New Year.” Including the names tied to New York are Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. - Yankee’s centerfielders Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera have drawn some interest from the Cubs, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (about ¼ of the way down the page). - The Yankees signed Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson to a reported one-year, $5.5 million deal. He would likely slide in as DH for New York. Though Johnson delivered little power last season for Washington, the Yankee’s right field stands and Johnson’s OBP should play well in the Bronx. - The Orioles made some noise signing former Atlanta Braves reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12 million deal. Gonzalez tore through the National League last season, striking out 90 in 74.1 innings on his way to a 2.42 ERA. - Baltimore also added Garrett Atkins to a one-year deal for $4.5 million, with an $8.5 million club option for 2011. Atkins, who hit .226/.308/.342 over 354 at-bats last season, was linked to the Red Sox around the trade deadline. - To finalize the Cleveland-Tampa Bay deal for Kelly Shoppach, the Indians received right-hander Mitch Talbot. Talbot threw 54.1 innings in AAA last season, totaling 40 strikeouts and 18 walks. Shoppach is a very interesting name for the Rays. An ex-Red Sox farmhand who appeared in nine games for Boston in 2005, the catcher hit .214/.335/.399 in 2009. - Last week, the (Devil) Rays signed quad-A vets Ryan Shealy and Joe Dillon. Shealy, 30, finally produced at the major league level last season, slugging 7 home runs in 73 at-bats on his way to a .301/.354/.603 line. Dillon, 34, last had a productive season in 2007 at AAA, where he hit .317/.405/.610 with 20 home runs in 315 at-bats.

Can Pitch FX track the Okie Dokie?

Reader Bill in FLA asked about a few pitcher profiles we could run in Pitch FX, and the first player I thought would be an excellent example of Pitch FX's capabilities and limitations is Hideki Okajima. Part of the limitations of Pitch FX, is that until the technology has a way to verify the exact pitch the pitcher intended to throw, the classification is an approximation of the overall speed, movement, and release points the pitches have. This is also why some pitchers have their pitches classified incorrectly, or in Oki's case, a severe change in classification that was most likely caused by a change in one of those above factors.

Mike Lowell fails physical in Texas

According to Peter Abraham at Boston.com a major league source has said that Mike Lowell has failed his physical to finalize the trade to the Texas Rangers.

According to a major league source, the third baseman needs surgery on the radial collateral ligament in his right thumb and the trade to Texas that was agreed upon 11 days ago is off.

Reviving Michael Bowden’s prospect status

Bowden has lost a bit of his "prospect" status, but he was ranked very high on lists just last year. He continues this year at Minor League Ball being ranked fifth on the Red Sox with a B Grade. He has a comparison of Jeff Suppan, but that is still very valuable. I think his ceiling is higher and PECOTA has his top comp as Kevin Slowey.

Is Casey Kotchman our best bet at first?

As comprised today, Boston has two choices when it comes to filling it's first/third hole: Slide Youkilis over to third and commit to Nick Johnson as first-baseman... or leave the window open for Beltre with the expectation that Kotchman ends up at first. The question is: Is Nick Johnson appreciably better than Casey Kotchman based on actual value? To me, it's a rather simple answer: No. Casey Kotchman is the better option than Nick Johnson.

Evaluating the 2010 team so far

After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it's possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn't very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I'm going to look at the roster without any third baseman. *Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it's an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them. Better than 2009 Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.

Sox Fans Grab Mallets While Theo Prepares to Be The Whack-a-Mole

This will certainly be a defining offseason when Red Sox historians look back on Theo Epstein’s legacy as Boston GM. If the acquisitions work, fans and media alike will sing high praise – and the untouchable GM will become all the more invincible. If the moves fail, he will be chastised and become vulnerable for the first time in his career. It’s difficult to give a grade to Theo at this point of the offseason - much less begin to rip him in the media. For one, there’s still so much work to be done that any analysis is incomplete, especially with Mike Lowell hanging in limbo. On the other hand, the fact that there’s been so much contention over every signing thus far means that there's likely not a single person left in New England that is happy with our GM - and any failure for the free agents in the upcoming season will be overmagnified. Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron. There is no concensus – lots of very intelligent people have advocated on both sides for all three acquisitions. Marco Scutaro is the best of a poor class of free agent shortstops. He’ll end up costing the Red Sox a 2nd round pick and is signed to a very favorable 3-year (or some would say 2-year) deal. He’s a late bloomer who some argue is a one-year wonder. Scutaro will have to be every bit as good as his breakout in 2009 for both sides to be satisfied. A good personnel move? Yes. But, it will be hard for Theo to win this one in the media...

John Lackey joins Boston in curious move

By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services. Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don't attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names. The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein's first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract -- so really, only two free agent years were bought out. That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can't really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn't seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he's been very good on the pitching ledger, so he's stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.