All-Aughts Team of the Decade Manager: Terry Francona

In 2004, Boston hired Terry Francona as manager, who had a nasty experience managing the Phillies in their down years, but also had experience managing superstars, such as Michael Jordan in the White Sox's farm system. He had been training in Oakland, learning from Billy Beane and others. His reputation was one of a balanced background: using statistics to shape his decisions, but leaving plenty of room for the human element. The going was a bit tough early on for Francona, although largely exacerbated by the awful choice of having Dale Sveum as the third-base coach. Where was Wavin' Wendell when you needed him? Of course, he made far more right decisions than wrong, steering the club to a World Series title and should receive massive credit for his handling of the situation the Sox found themselves in during the playoffs, down three games to none in the best-of-seven ALCS. Francona was at times -- and still is, to this day -- called Francoma for some questionable decisions he makes that is rooted in both the human element of the game and his ability to remain steady and even-keeled day in and day out, understanding the bigger picture.

PECOTA confirms our thoughts on 2010 and Clay Buchholz

This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place. Of course the big surprise is who is in first. PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card. So where are the Yankees? Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs. OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along. The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.

Tim Wakefield to be full-time member of the rotation?

In several pieces (here's the ESPN Boston one) over the last couple days, it has been made clear by Tim Wakefield that he expects to serve as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. Coming off of back surgery in October, he expects to enter spring training healthy. This is a situation that is going to have to be resolved one way or the other. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey aren't going anywhere and it's difficult to imagine Daisuke Matsuzaka not being in the rotation. All indications are that the club is moving forward with Clay Buchholz as a long-term, permanent member of the rotation as well. So... where's the give? Where's the solution. Something's gotta happen.I don't see any way that Wakefield doesn't open the season in the bullpen (barring injury). Anyone have any thoughts?

All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP3: Hideki Okajima

Lost in all the hubbub back when Daisuke Matsuzaka was being posted was Boston's inking of left-handed reliever Hideki Okajima to a two-year deal with a club option. The signing flew rather under the radar given Okajima was a run-of-the-mill reliever in Japan and many felt the signing was to give Matsuzaka a caddy in Boston. (Fire Brand archive: What About Our Hideki? 2/20/07)

When Okajima came in Opening Day and gave up a home run to Royals catcher John Buck on his first pitch, things looked like they were taking a drastic turn for the worse. 19 scoreless appearances later, he finished with a 0.83 ERA in the first half. (Fire Brand archive: Okajima: Ability or Fortuity? 4/12/07.) He developed a changeup that took on a name called the Oki-Doki. (Fire Brand archive: Can Pitch FX track the Okie Dokie? 12/20/09.)

The state of the bullpen

This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez. The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let's assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we'll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option. Sure Things Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn't quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade DH: David Ortiz

The beginning of the 2000s saw saw such names as Dante Bichette, Brian Daubach and Carlos Baerga man the designated hitter position. Beginning in 2003, a new name was added to these ranks: David Ortiz. Once Shea Hillenbrand was ousted to Arizona in May, Ortiz took over the full-time DH job and carved his place in Red Sox lore as the greatest clutch hitter in Boston history (commemorated with a plaque given by John Henry in 2004) and a major reason why Boston won two titles.

Ortiz finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2003, topping 100 RBI for the first time in his career. He had a quiet ALDS against the Athletics save for his rousing double in Game 4, but gave us a hint of what was to come in the ALCS against New York, cranking two home runs. Ortiz then avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal worth $4.5875 million a year after earning $1.25 million. Such cheap production for such valuable output, much to George Steinbrenner's anger as he reportedly encouraged GM Brian Cashman to ink Ortiz as a free agent, which Cashman nixed.

Contingency Planning for an Ortiz on the Ropes

As Buster Olney stated in a recent piece, “the Red Sox may look to replace David Ortiz if he struggles again in the first half like he did last year.” Certainly, the struggles of Big Papi have a lot to say about the success of the team. Like we profiled earlier, David Ortiz is undeniably on the downswing of his career. In what should be the last year of his contract, Ortiz will likely have difficulty living up to his $12.5 million price tag. The plan outlined by Olney involves a specific scenario under which Ortiz repeats his 2009 first-half struggles, leading to a trade of Ortiz, acquiring a catcher and moving Victor Martinez to DH. Quite the series of moves. The first obstacle to any such move involves Ortiz underperforming to such a degree that he repeats his putrid April and May, in which he hit just one home run in 178 at-bats on his way to a .185/.289/.286 overall line...

Don’t Make Carlton Fisk Angry

The Chicago Tribune caught up with Carlton Fisk this week amid the new steroid drama circling Mark McGwire. Our old fireplug catcher responded as we would have expected, lambasting McGwire and the other confessers who continue to try and downplay the effects steroids had on them. Like most people, I think I'm slowly getting more sick of steroids as each new poster-boy for "not talking about the past" comes forward. Between the fake tears, the finger pointing, and uncanny ability to forget the English language, the fans of baseball have been treated to a fiasco much like dirty politics. Baseball "saviors" come up dirty, and players continue to abuse the system without any remorse or regret.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade bench UTIL: Eric Hinske

Hinske was acquired by Boston during the fateful year of 2006 to provide much-needed depth at first base, the outfield corners and third base (although he never once appeared in a game at third for Boston).

Hinske was similar to Doug Mirabelli during his time in Boston that he had a low batting average (.229 in Boston) but a fair amount of pop. He also had strong plate discipline and was considered a valuable asset to the team, serving as the utilityman in each 2007 postseason series roster.

Papelbon gets his money

Just before the deadline the Red Sox signed Jonathan Papelbon for the 2010 season at $9.35 million dollars. With a contract value like that it's highly unlikely Papelbon is trade material. He has 2011 still under arbitration and with another raise I can't see him going anywhere. His contract this year looks like a solid deal. He has been worth 3.2, 2.2, 3.0 and 1.9 WAR over the past four years. Those values have resulted in values of $12, $9.1, $13.5 and $8.8 million in value to the team. That all makes $9.3 million seem like a very good deal. This doesn't leave any expected value over his contract though. In other words he is being paid his value and makes trading him a difficult proposition. The next step is looking ahead to his next arbitration case. As long as he maintains his health he can expect a raise again in 2011. Likely to the $12-14 million dollar range. That number makes his value a bit tougher to take. This fact also makes his trade value right now even less. Not many teams can afford to take a $9.3 million dollar closer let alone one due $12-14 in another year. This is why the Papelbon trade rumors have gone away and never had much interest from the beginning. There are plenty of teams interested in adding a proven closer, but when you have to pay full value and give up players it's not likely to get much interest.