Ask anyone about the playoff prospects of the 2010 Red Sox and they are sure to tell you that a large part of them are riding on the bat of a resurgent David Ortiz.
Papi has been one of the biggest cogs in the Red Sox machine for the better part of the past decade. Pushing the team to the brink of a World Series appearance in 2003, he lit worlds on fire bringing the club to two world championships in 2004 and 2007.
Then 2008 struck. Downed by an injury to his left wrist, Papi missed 45 games in June and July recovering from his subsequent surgery. Since then, Ortiz hasn’t the same.
Wrist injuries are death on power hitters. They decrease bat control and bat speed – two of the most important components of power hitting.
But, the wrist is just one development in the evolution of David Ortiz as a hitter. He turned 34 this past November, showing signs of aging in his last few seasons. There were PED allegations. And, it wasn’t long before the injury that Ortiz was struggling at the plate, leading to suspicions that Ortiz has become somewhat of a second-half hitter.
Still, what seems to have happened to Ortiz is that his wrist has combined with some of the drawbacks of aging – suggesting that Ortiz’s bat speed has slowed. For many who watched Ortiz hit in 2009 – especially in the early months of the season – he had lots of trouble making solid contact, especially when attempting to catch up with fastballs. Though his bat came around later in the year, particularly after the all-star break – where he posted a .258/.340/.516 line, with 16 home runs in 248 at-bats – it doesn’t mean that he’s out of the woods. There are a lot of signs that this extended run is more than just a slump or injury that can be recovered from asOrtiz is beginning to follow many of the classic signs of aging for a big, left-handed slugger.
The first point of concern is his dropping contact rate. After highs of 80.1 percent and 79.5 percent in ’07 and ’08, his rates dropped considerably to 76.7 percent in ’09. The sudden drop from ’08 to ’09 is the truly concerning point, as it suggests exactly what we’ve seen with our eyes and what would be indicated by problems with a wrist – decreased bat speed and bat control. Still, the ’09 number is not far below his rates in ’03 (77.4 percent) and ’06 (77.9 percent), so there is some hope that it was just a bad year. But, given the rest of the body of evidence, don’t bet on any significant recovery.
Keeping with the theme of Ortiz’s swinging habits, his increased O-Swing percentage is another worrisome indicator of his batting skills. An even clearer trend that his declining contact percentage is the rate at which he has been swinging outside of the zone. In every season since 2004, Ortiz has steadily increased the percentage of pitches he offers at outside the zone.
While hacking at bad pitches is always a bad thing, the fact that it has risen so abruptly in the last two seasons (18.5 percent O-Swing in 2007 versus 22.1 percent in 2009) is particularly troubling. When hitters are suffering from decreased bat speed and struggling with fastballs, they must begin their swing sooner in order to catch up with these pitches. While this helps them catch up to fastballs, it can have the negative effect of hurting their ability to correctly diagnose pitches. This can affect their ability to hit off-speed offerings, especially those that follow a similar plane as the fastball they are gearing up for.
To visualize this, think of Barry Zito’s loopy curveball versus Francisco Rodriguez’s hard curve. Zito sacrifices some of the deception in his pitch for increased movement. With a large difference in the trajectory of his curveball versus his fastball, it can be diagnosed early by hitters. On the other hand, K-Rod throws a hard curve with less movement, but a closer trajectory to the fastball – and thus more deception as it takes longer for this difference in trajectory to be recognized by a hitter.
When hitters like Ortiz are speeding up the timing of their swing, they are sacrificing time that would normally be used to recognize certain off-speed pitches, thus hurting their ability to hit these off-speed pitches, resulting in less contact made and more swings at off-speed pitches outside the zone.
In addition to his struggles with his pitch selection and making contact, Ortiz is also struggling with his ability to hit for power. Since 2006, Ortiz has seen a decrease in his rate of home runs per fly balls, which topped out at 26.1 percent in ’06, declining steadily through last season, where it bottomed out at 13.4 percent.
This power outage also points to diminished bat speed which has manifested in two ways: one, in more opposite-field fly balls (and more fly balls in general), and second, in fewer home runs, as a result of less energy being imparted on the baseball via less bat speed, which is compounded by even less energy imparted on the ball when contact is made in the direction of the opposite field, when the bat is not yet at maximum velocity. It’s a vicious cycle.
At this point in his career, Ortiz is becoming somewhat of a liability to the team. Still, there are reasons to be hopeful of a recovery of some part of his former glory. His vastly improved second-half, where he posted a .258/.350/.516 line gives some real reason for optimism that he can outperform his poor .794 OPS and abysmal 0.7 WAR on the year. In addition, his very low .266 BABIP is a reasonable bet to turn around – though, the optimism should be tempered somewhat, as he has posted two consecutive seasons of sub-par BABIPs (.273 BABIP in ’08 and .266 in ’09).
If his ’09 BABIP had registered near his career average of .304, his batting average would finished in the low-.260s with an OPS of about .860 – just about a dead heat with his ’08 production. Still, though Ortiz’s overall line improved between the first and second halves of ’09, his BABIP did not – at just .261 before the break, versus .272 after.
While it is certainly clear that David Ortiz is not the same hitter he was between ’03-’07, it is very difficult to say whether or not he will continue his slide or be able to post a repeat of ’08. The addition of 1.0-1.5 WAR would be a huge boost for the team, and a .260/.850 line is not at all out of reach, especially when considering Ortiz’s resurgent second-half. Bill James’ echoes this sentiment, projecting a .264/.877 season.
But the true value of Ortiz’s abilities may lie in the eye of the beholder. Running a few quick projections, inputting Ortiz’s .794 OPS as his baseline ability yields a projected OPS of .816 for 2010. Assuming that his .866 OPS is his baseline ability yields an estimated 2010 OPS of .848. Though a step up from his 2009 line, they, too, suggest that Ortiz’s days as a premier designated hitter are likely in the past. The continued aging of the big-bodied slugger seems to have put another dent in his bat, which may prove too much for him to overcome.
If anything, Ortiz must be paired with a right-handed platoon mate. This would have a two-fold benefit of, one, improving the production out of the middle of the order, where Ortiz batted just .212/.298/.418 against southpaws. Second, the additional days off would serve to keep Ortiz’s wrist and legs fresh throughout the season, decreasing his injury risk and keeping him healthy for the postseason.
With just a zero-dollar buyout, $12.5 million club option due for Ortiz in 2011, it is looking more and more likely that 2010 will be Ortiz’s last in a Boston uniform. Barring a huge – and unlikely – resurgence this upcoming season, it is very difficult to imagine the designated hitter being worth his $12.5 million option. It’s too bad he’s meant so much to this team for so long – it will be tough to see him go.
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Platooning him at DH with Lowell seems like a logical solution for 2009…
$24m for a below-average DH platoon? fantastic.
Sean, you know that they both can come off the books next year and you can't trade either one of them right now without eating most of the salary. The two halfs make for a better whole to start the season. How do you they add up to below average?
One encouraging thing to look at is that, from the beginning of June through the end of the season Ortiz was on pace for 42 HR's, assuming 162 games played. That's a pretty solid period of success but the swing profile numbers you discuss are certainly not as optimistic. Do you know if there's a way to split out those swing numbers by month? Maybe he was really swinging abysmally in April and May but pretty much fixed things by June.
If he can keep up that kind of an ISO, he can salvage some real value.
But when he's returns to his 2003-2004 walk rate with a much high strikeout rate, the days of him being a .380+ OBP hitter are quickly fading. Ortiz needs to get on base to be productive, even if that just means being more selective with outside pitches to give the #6 hitter (Cameron, I'm guessing) his chance to shine.
Unfortunately, with purely "old guy" skills, Ortiz is not a productive option unless he's getting on base 4 out of every 10 chances. The end of this season is sure going to be sad with the inevitable departure at DH.
"In every season since 2004, Ortiz has steadily increased the percentage of pitches he offers at outside the zone."
If anything, Mike, this tends to worry me the most.
Most aging power hitters tend to become more selective, having a slight surge in walk rates, but a slight surge in K%, normally due to a lower rate of swings overall. If Ortiz is starting to swing at pitches outside of the zone more frequently(and empirical evidence suggests I remember picturing him way out ahead of off speed pitches low and away all year*) , that's a very scary indicator of future performance.
Richie Sexson had this same path as he spiraled down with the Mariners.
1) His O-Swing increased during his time in Seattle as his skills declined, yet his swings in the zone didn't decrease until his final injury riddles year with the Mariners and Yankees.
2) He struggled with two lower walk rates in 06 and 07 after a departure for his normal 13ish% rates, yet his strikeouts went back up to his earlier career levels when he broke into the majors.
Ortiz' success really depends on being a productive Three True Outcome** player. He doesn't have the speed to hold a high BABIP, so he's not goign to be able to offset his decrease in walks with singles. For his career he's a 36% TTO player, and a big drop in walks and an increase in strikeouts are going to kill his value.
* Has anyone else noticed what Ortiz seems to be swinging at more that could clarify my above statement?
** For those unaware: a Three True Outcome player is someone who basically does one of 3 things at least a third of the time: Home Run, Strikeout, Walk. TTO players need to have high walk rates to offset the amount of strikeouts, and high power (30+ HRs) to offset what will be a low BABIP due to their lack of speed.
I don't have hard data to back it up but what I saw last year especially the first two months was that Ortiz has lost some bat speed. He's always had a compact swing for such a big guy, but it is a bit violent. I think the knee and wrist injuries have reduced his ability to swing as hard as he did in his prime. It looked to me like he was starting a bit early on fastballs (not as bad as Varitek), and good pitchers were busting him with hard stuff inside then hitting him with a wrinkle once they sped his bat up. Since he was probably gearing up for fastballs he would get out ahead of breaking pitches and changeups, especially out of the zone, the less you see the pitch the less you recognize location and pitch type. That would explain the higher O-swing % as he wasn't able to recognize breaking balls as well as he used to. Furthermore, Ortiz has always looked to pull the ball which compounds the problem.
I wonder if this would explain the Red Sox struggles in general against top flight pitching this year. The offense as a whole seemed to go the way Papi did and if your theory (and mine) that he was out ahead of soft stuff is correct it would make sense. Front-line power pitchers have the ability to bust a guy like Ortiz inside with power fastballs and also have the type of quality off-speed stuff that they can locate away to get him out ahead. In the past, it was tough to do that because Ortiz had the bat speed to wait a bit longer, recognize the pitch, and cover the plate. It also helped that he really crowds the plate.
In my mind, Ortiz probably has one more good year left in him, but the Red Sox would be wise to say thanks for the memories and let him walk after this season. He means a lot to us, but he's clearly on the downslope of his career and his skills are fading. Considering that he has no defensive value and he's never been great about personal fitness any contract he signs after this season could be an albatross.
With Ortiz, all WE can do is hope. What Tito can do, is not bat him in the 3 hole. When he bats third, he's always trying to pull the ball and any pitches on the outer half of the plate end up as pop-ups to the SS.
In 2003 is FB% was 38.7, in 2009 it's up to 50.5% and of those increase fly balls his IFFB% was 7.7 in 2003, with 2009 at 9.9%. He's a better hitter when he goes with the pitch on the outside of the dish and drives it into left/center instead of trying to pull it and just missing, hitting it staight up high in the air only to come down in the SS's glove. If he gets in better shape, like he said he would and has the mindset of a batter in the 5 or 6 hole, he may come back as Big Papi instead of the Big Pop-up. The problem Tito will have is his love of batting lefty/righty lefty/righty. With our heavy lefty line-up, Mike Lowell should be the DH against lefty starters, as GreggB stated above, with Ortiz used as the big bat off the bench against righty relievers late in the game.
Actually, most lineup analysis shows the #3 spot, contrary to what is intuitive, is the least important spot in the first six positions in the order (because it has the highest frequency of low-value, two out, no one on at bats). So it really isn't a bad place to park Papi.
I agree that Tito does get a little obsessive with his L/R/L thing!
But if we have the choice of Vmart or Ortiz batting third, my vote is for Vmart eight days a week.
I know there's a lineup generator out there, but I'd be curious is the average return at 6th is more valuable than 3rd.
Because in a perfect world, your five best players still go 1-5. Drew, Pedroia, VMart, Youk, and Ellsbury/Cameron/3B whomever it ends up being.
If Ellsbury's OBP can crack 370 this year, a top 5 of Ellsbury, Drew, VMart, Youk, Pedroia would be awesome. Pedroia and Drew are intrchangeable, but I like Pedroia's reliable contact and speed 5th where he'll have more RBI and SB oppotunities, and Drew 2nd to get on base for the guys behind him.
Here's a good summary of what the optimizers indicate. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946... Personally, I'd go Pedroia, VMart, Papi, Youk, Drew. We'd get more value out of Ellsbury's speed if he were hitting seventh or so…
But all that said, lineup optimization only makes a difference of a handful of runs a year…
Haha, good timing after my edit too :)
I'm glad someone else agrees that unless Ellsbury's OBP ends up being elite, he'd be considerably more valuable batting 7th in front of two weaker hitters where his steals can make a huge difference.
I always wondered why Pedroia, who still has decent baserunning skills to swipe 20 bags, doesn't bat 5th. A big chunk of his OBP is fueled by high contact rates and BABIP, it seems like a guy with the ball in play more often can benefit with having runners on in front of him.
Lee and GreggB, thanks for the link, good read. Where does Mike Cameron bat in this line up if Ortiz starts the year in the three hole and Ellsbury bats seventh?
Here's my two guesses for what Tito would do with Ortiz 3rd and Jacoby 7th:
1. Dusty – VMart – Ortiz – Youk – Drew – Cameron – Ellsbury – Beltre – Scutaro
2. Dusty – Drew – Ortiz – Youk – VMart – Cameron – Ellsbury – Lowell – Scutaro (my preferred)
Regardless of 3B, I think Beltre's lesser OBP warrants him batting 8th, even with his power.
Tito will most likely roll with Ortiz 3rd or 5th and Ellsbury 1st. I'd say this is the most likely lineup:
Ellsbury – Pedroia – VMart – Youk – Ortiz – Cameron – Drew – 3B – Scutaro
If Ellsbury's OBP hits 375-380 this year, I'm ok with this lineup, but would prefer it if Drew was 5th or 6th. It sucks because you have two lineup divas in Ortiz and Drew that prevents us from putting them where they belong (6th and 1st, respectively)
"lineup divas" ???
Great term. Love it.
I agree, but I just don't see Tito moving Pedroia out of the #2 spot.
He also seems to subscribe to the theory that a high-pitch count guy like Drew is good to have in the 6-7-8-9 spots because it prevents the pitcher from having a low-pitch count inning. Its not the worse philosophy, but its a bit defensive minded. At any rate, that seems to be why Drew gets camped out in the back side of the order so much.
Scutaro might change that if he continues his improved OBP ways of last year. And we'll have fewer days with Varitek in the lineup as well. So maybe it will be different.
It always drives me nuts that media folks look at Drew's RBI or Run numbers as measures of his supposed lack of productivity, ignoring that he has had so many at bats surrounded by the worse hitters in the lineup.
You're probably right. I think if anything, Tito would be more inclined to slide him up to #1 instead of Jacoby, which I'd be perfectly fine with also.
"It always drives me nuts that media folks look at Drew's RBI or Run numbers as measures of
his supposed lack of productivity, ignoring that he has had so many at bats surrounded by the worse hitters in the lineup."
Much like how RBIs are purely a function of your lineup position and opportunities. If Drew batted 4th all year he'd eclipse 100 RBIs. Easily. It's highly dependent upon the scenario you end up in. Unless you are an extreme power hitter, you can't just generate RBIs withotu any help from your friends.
Or runs!
Tito has bounced Drew back and forth between leadoff and the back end of the order. As a consequence he has mediocre RBIs and mediocre Runs Scored totals. However, his Runs Created are actually pretty decent.
Exactly. Drew gets on base close to 40% of the time. It's not HIS fault he's not coming around the score.
I think he's the perfect #1/#2 hitter. Unless you really think elite speed makes a difference at leadoff (why with big bats behind you), the guys in one of the top two spots has one job: Get on base!
I had a thought about papi's BABIP. The decline could well have occurred around the same time as teams started to institute the shift for his at bats. It was commonplace this year, how long have they been doing it?
I clearly remember Papi once bunting for a hit down the line towards 3rd, and with no one fielding he trotted to 1st. Now I'm sure there's some reason he doesn't do this all the time, since it's basically a free hit and would cause managers to reconsider using the shift, but I can't figure it out. From what I can find (about Ortiz or anyone else hitting with the shift on), it's just a matter of "they pay me to get the big hits, not bunt," which doesn't make sense to me… Anyone have any ideas?
I've also wondered why Ortiz doesn't bunt more. And this might have been apocryphal, but from what I recall Tito has said Ortiz is actually pretty good at bunting, having refined the skill with the Twins.
The shift to the degree we saw it this year? I'd say it's been like that since at least 2005. I'm pretty sure that shift became commonplace after he blew up in 2004. I even remember Joe Maddon doing the wacky 4 outfielder setup for a while.
Beltre comes over at a bargain price! One year, $9 million with a player option for year 2.