According to Dan Roche on Twitter, Terry Francona has confirmed that Jacoby Ellsbury will be our starting left fielder in 2010. This also means Mike Cameron is in center field and Jeremy Hermida is the fourth outfielder.
Overall I think the move is fairly neutral as we discussed before here. His huge UZR numbers in left field are small sample size and moving Mike Cameron to left would probably get a similar defensive increase in run value.
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But is the more cynical reason that as a LF, Ellsbury's arbitration numbers will be weaker?
I don't think that factored into a decision, but it could distinctly be so. However, remember, Carl Crawford makes $10M. Nothing that Boras or Ellsbury will sneeze at.
I don't know if I'm as "pessimistic" as you, Troy. I think the body of work clearly dictates that Cameron play center.
I wasn't trying to be "pessimistic", but more realistic that I think in LF Cameron would improve his defense as much as moving Ellsbury to left. I think it breaks even, but with a greater history in center I do agree this was the right move.
Who becomes the reserve corner infielder now? The Sox will still be looking to unload Lowell as well so I'm just curious as to the thought process. Also, as an interesting note, Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors.com stated earlier that he believe Adrian Gonzalez will be traded before the deadline. With the acquisition of Beltre, where would Gonzalez fit on this team for the remainder of the season?
I think they'll let a bunch of AAAAers or veteran players frozen out of the FA market come in and battle for these two spots.
Either way the defense out there is good. This just insures that its good out in center, something that we wouldn't be sure of based on Ellsbury's numbers. I don't want it to hinder his development, defensively though. Because for 2010, this might be better for the team, but it diminishes Jacoby's long-term value as it is easier to find a left fielder than a center fielder.
I think you're jumping the gun a little here. Who says the Sox are getting Adrian Gonzalez?
MLBtraderumors says a lot of things, a lot of which are contradictory. I wouldn't just pick one and run with it. So far, I don't think anything substantial has surfaced about Gonzalez other than that a lot of teams want him.
I think Beltre's signing sort of indicates that the Sox don't expect to land Gonzalez this offseason.
Jake, I agree with you. Pure speculation mixed with wishful thinking on my part…I like to think maybe the Red Sox have an inside track with Jed as Padres GM, even though that's likely not the case. Basically I'm just speaking in hypotheticals at this point and wanted to get others thoughts on how the Sox might handle the situation if it were to occur. Probably an exercise of pure fantasy, but then again what are sports if not pure, escapist entertainment.
Jeff Bailey anyone?
Signed with the Diamondbacks, but yeah, someone like him.
Good for him. I've always thought that he was underutilized and maybe he'll get some appreciable play time with the D-Bags.
Playing Ells in LF will allow him to go from a serviceable CF to an outstanding LF. With less need to concentrate on his fielding, I think Ells can now stress hitting, with plate discipline being the prioity. Given that nudge I think Ells can turn himself into a potent offensive weapon. The Sox need to work on his contract extension now….especially with that leach he has as an agent. With regard to Beltre, personally I would have preferred to see the Sox pick up Adam LaRoche, he would have been cheaper overall, his defense would have been excellent at first, Youkilis would have been above average at 3rd and the Sox would have had a stronger offensive player. In addition, Betre is coming off of an injury plagued year shoulder, and testicle and hasn't been too grand with the bat at Safeco Park. I'm ust a little disappointed with the move.
We get Beltre on a very friendly contract on an upswing from his injuries. We've seen what he can do in the past and his bat will play much better in Fenway. LaRoche is an underwhelming hitter for a 1B and we might as well have just kept Kotchman for no money if we were interested in LaRoche and his pipe dream 3/30 contract since their value shake out to be just about equal. Or, in short, "LaRoche sucks."
LaRoche sucks.
you really have to think that this would preclude the Sox from making a serious run at AGon at the trade deadline this summer… unless of course *gasp* the unthinkable happens, and the injury prone Beltre goes down with yet another injury.
remember Kurt, the will play Victor at 1b every 5th game or so, and unless there is an injury, how often do you need someone to spell Youk? I'm sure there will be a reserve infielder, but not one that will be relied upon to produce much
1. I doubt Beltre's contract will preclude signing AGon or MCab or whomever may come available as, by 8/1/10, less than $3M will be left on that one-year contract and they would find a way to keep everyone productive and rested. Also, someone mentioned that it's possible he could have such a good season proving his worth, that Beltre would become a type A – FA. Smart move.
2. Theo assured Hermida that he would trade him if he didn't start in LF, so he is probably gone, especially as he and Ells are both lefties. Too bad, he and Kotchman were potentially excellent young pickups. However, Hermida would be great insurance if Beltre or JD got hurt, moving Jacoby back to center, as Hermida's strongest positions are LF & RF. Why not Hall + Lowrie + Tek + Lowell to start?
3. Does Theo really want another SP right now? Tito has a 6-man rotation already, plus Bowden & Tazawa maybe ready by the time someone gets hurt, plus Bonser & RRammi II with good starting experience. They are legitimately 10 deep. And in the Pen, assuming Richardson is #6 & Wake takes that 7th slot as spot starter/long relief, the Pen is full with another promising 7 MLB ready in the farm: Atchinson, Cabrera, Fabio, Manuel plus Bonser & RRammi II, plus Bowden & Tazawa. Sox pitching is not only deeper than last year's, it is much better than last year's.
Beltre's games played in Seattle:
156
156
149
143
111
That is not injury prone, that's a highly resilient player at 3b.
Our outfield laughs at your puny line drive!
Yeah, this makes us just have an AWESOME OF defense.
i get that there's a glut of defensive metrics that contradict a franchise streak for games without errors (232 games), 12 put-outs in 1 game, on his way to being named TYIB defensive player of the year. i guess my little brain just doesn't get it
hooray! I love when we simply make the right decision. Not because it's the easy way, but because it's the right way.
If you're at the point of reading advanced metrics, you should know that errors are a dumb way of evaluating defense. Put outs? You can't credit Ellsbury with the skill of "causing balls to be hit towards him." And the TYIB awards are based on fan votes online (which disproportionately represent teams from larger demographics (Boston)). Would you really trust the average idiot fan to manage your professional baseball team?
One additional advantage of Ells in left is that he is less likely to injure himself. The guy throws his body around fearlessly, and given all the angles and nooks and crannies in center, the warning track doesn't give an accurate read on how close you are to the wall. Left in Fenway is just a big monolith, you know where it is all the time.
And hopefully, he realizes right away that his speed should let him play extremely shallow, hopfully cutting off a good amount of those looping LF singles. This will also reduce any negative you get from his arm.
wow i got shellacked, suddenly feelin John Smoltzish
Hermida should start in LF
Start Yaz in left!
Jim Rice!
Oh you mean you want to win baseball games? Never mind.