Lars Anderson looking like a younger Casey Kotchman

I think Casey Kotchman should be a warning to any long term success we might expect from Lars Anderson.  This is also just a discussion of their offense as Kotchman has a much better glove.  Kotchman was a much higher draft pick going in the first round of the 2001 draft while Anderson was an 18th round pick.  So what is it that makes these two have anything in common?

First is that they have excellent plate discipline.  Even at the minor league level they both have between a half a walk to a full walk for every strikeout.  Anderson strikes out quite a bit more, but he walks a lot more too.  All things being equal Kotchman would probably have a better average, but their OBP would be close.

An interesting comparison is how Baseball America viewed them.  In 2005 BA ranked Kotchman #6 and had this quote from a scout.  “He’s such a good hitter and he’s still developing. I think he’ll easily hit 30-plus homers in the majors. As we have seen that power never came and now Kotchman is more of a 10-15 homer guy at a power position.

In 2009 BA came back and ranked Anderson 17 and commended his OBP skills.  At the same time The Scouting Book commented he would some day hit 40 homers when given the chance.  While two similar scouting reports is not enough to call them the same it is interesting to see there power was banked on at a later age.

Thankfully through the site Minor League Splits we have access to the batted ball line for both of these players and this is where we can see what is going on.  In 2005 with 356 ABs Kotchman smoked the infield with 57.9% ground balls.  Since reaching the majors he has averaged 52.7% ground balls.  Anderson we can see is swinging the same way with a career minor league ground ball rate of 54.3%.

This is a problem since none of these grounders are going to leave the ball park.  With a 50%+ ground ball rate he is going to only have around 30% fly balls.  How many homers can he hit like that?  Well homers are a factor of your fly ball rate and your HR/FB (Homer per fly ball rate).  Only one player with a fly ball rate at 30% or less topped 20 homers and that was Joe Mauer.  Two players had more than 20 at a 32% flyball rate; Micheal Young and Hunter Pence.

To reach 30 homers he would need a HR/FB rate at 20% at a minimum and only 12 players in 2009 had that much power.  While he is only going to be 23 this year and still growing it’s a lot to ask him to be one of the top players in HR/FB.  Kotchman has a career HR/FB of only 8.9% and had more power when in the minors.
Scouts are starting to question the power as you can see John Sickels dropped him to a B- grade and had this to say.

“A difficult grade, but I’m going to give him an injury mulligan and see what he can do with a fresh start. Like Rizzo, will he have the home run power you want in a first baseman?”

Last year before the season he was a A- and his comments were much more glowing of his future power.

“Will hit for power and average, I’m confident home runs will increase.”

Next year is going to be a huge year for Lars Anderson and a showing of power is the key to his future. He is in danger of being passed by Anthony Rizzo on more prospect lists and already behind him on John Sickels 2010 list. In case your curious Rizzo is only hitting 36% ground balls, which is good news for his power to increase.

This all means that Anderson has to count on his OBP skills, but that might not be enough at a power position like first base.  His defense is also rating as neutral at best and probably below according to most systems.

Anderson seemed to be the next prospect in line entering 2009 to force his way into the Red Sox lineup, but things have turned around in the matter of one season.  Many prospects list are unsure how far to drop him, but he has definitely fallen.  He is a major reason the Red Sox feel they are in a bridge season for prospects and while they dealt Kotchman to Seattle it seems we still have him around.