With arbitration cases kicking in, payroll comes to the forefront of team concerns this week. While the Red Sox only have 4 arbitration cases left to settle, we can start to look at the overall payroll concerns going into 2010 and beyond. 2010 is supposed to be our “bridge” year, but is 2011 really when the Red Sox completely reload?
Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists the Red Sox payroll commitments, and a handy spreadsheet breakdown for the next 4 years as well.
Evan’s article yesterday laid out some basic figures for the four arbitration eligible Red Sox. While his figures for Delcarman, Ramirez, and Hermida seem solid ($1M, $1.5M, $3M) I have more reservations about Papelbon, considering the “favor” he wants to achieve for his fellow closers, and think his case will invariably go all the way into arbitration, where he’ll get close to $9M. I have a feeling he’ll ask for at least $10M, especially after he thinks he should be getting Mariano Rivera-like deals in free agency.
Currently, the Red Sox payroll stands at $149M, taking into account all new contracts, leftover payments for former players (like Lugo) any options exercise upon contract termination (Wagner, Alex Gonzalez) and monies received form other teams (via Seattle for Bill Hall).
This would push the Red Sox payroll to $163.5 million, just barely under the estimated luxury tax cap of $170 million. I do not see the Red Sox pursuing any other in-house raises this year, as most of the young talent has either reached arbitration, or been signed to contracts buying out free agency (Lester, Pedroia). The only “good faith raise” I could see is Ellsbury, but even a modest raise wouldn’t push the team above $164 million.
2011 sees only $81 million dedicated before arbitration cases, half of the current Red Sox budget. The bridge year Theo spoke of seems directly related to this chop in payroll. The Red Sox now have the pockets to seriously analyze the players free to leave in 2011. Beckett’s health and mileage will be studied; Ortiz and Lowell’s careers are most likely finished in Boston, barring a huge breakout by Ortiz this year. Beltre, if his 2010 is highly productive, could still be acquired at a decent price even if he declines his player option. Victor Martinez, if not resigned during the season, can prove to the team in 2010 if he can still hack it behind the plate for a full season, or if the Sox go all in on still unsigned (for 2011) Joe Mauer.
In trying to figure out Theo’s long term goal, I keep going back to two scenarios:
1. The Victor Martinez acquisition.
Without a long term deal yet for either player, 2010 will be spent watching Joe Mauer with baited breath. If the Sox really believe in “Victor Martinez the Catcher”, why not get his contract taken care of now, luxury tax be damned? Are they only stalling to provide enough of a competition presence for Mauer if he remains unsigned? We’re all pretty confident at least 10 clubs will pull out every checkbook they can find for him, especially our friends 210 miles southwest.
2. The Short-term Outfield
In 2012, JD Drew and Mike Cameron’s contracts will have run their course, and neither would be resigned. This would leave Scott Boras client, and perennial argument igniter, Jacoby Ellsbury as the only major league ready outfielder on the roster that we know of right now, as changes in the portfolios of Reddick, Westmoreland, Kalish and other minor leaguers are still being filled out.
My only concern going into 2011 is the free agent pool doesn’t seem to be as much of a blockbuster as it should. While excellent options exist (Jayson Werth, Brad Hawpe, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb) there are two spots of contention in the Red Sox organization: first and third base. Neither of these positions have impact 2011 free agents.
In 2011, no top tier third basemen (except Beltre) is possibly available. The cadre of young first basemen (Fielder, Gonzalez) are still arbitration eligible, leaving only Carlos Pena, or older solutions like Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman to reroute Youkilis to third base. Adam Dunn is only a solution at DH, as his defense makes Jason Bay look like a Gold Glover. Some intriguing options (Jose Reyes) could be available, and are options if Scutaro making a shift to third base could be ironed out. While Albert Pujols could be available, he won’t be. St. Louis will pick his option up. Stop dreaming.
This leads me to believe that 2011 may actually be a “bridge” year again, unless a large move is made for Mauer.
One of the more attractive outfield positions (Werth, Crawford), can only be acquired if one of our current outfielders is traded. Drew is rather untradeable, as the return on an aging player won’t match his production. Cameron’s contract is movable, but he’s barely more than a elective stopgap for a team looking for just one or two years in center to bridge the gap to a minor leaguer (hey, just like we are!)
If the Red Sox wait one more year, and keep payroll lean, 2012 could roll around with these free agents:
Albert Pujols
Felix Hernandez
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard
Jimmy Rollins
Adrian Gonzalez (most likely traded during 2011)
Grady Sizemore (2012 club option)
Jose Reyes (if option not exercised in 2011)
That’s a veritable fantasy baseball powerhouse, isn’t it?
Now, probably half of those players only have a pie in the sky chance of seeing free agency in 2012, but considering the possibilities. Extending this bridge one more year, and crossing our fingers that the talent in the minors, stacked through the outfield, is what they say it is, and the Sox have a shot of landing some premium players in 2012.
How do you feel about the current bridge to 2011? Do you see the Sox making a big splash this coming offseason, or instead waiting for the giant possible windfall of 2012 talent?