This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez.
The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let’s assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we’ll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option.
Sure Things
Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn’t quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.
Okajima and Delcarmen will also return to the pen this year, but both have some huge question marks making them not sure things to be locks for the full season. Since coming to the Red Sox in 2007 Okajima has watched his numbers decline each season. His K/BB has dropped from 3.71 to 2.61 and then to 2.52 last year. According to Fangraphs his pitch selection is now fully a split finger and no changeups. It seems to be the pitches he is struggling to be most effective with.
I did a bit of Pitch f/x earlier on Delcarmen and found more than a few reasons to look at Delcarmen as a dangerous option in 2010. He needs to really prove his health in spring training or be pushed to the back of the pen. I put him in sure thing as his name and reputation will keep him there and the team may look to showcase him for trade.
Last in this group has to be Wakefield as the team wants him around for long relief and emergency starter. With Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka all missing time in the last year Wakefield should have no problem getting a few starts, but also plenty of innings in long relief.
The Back of the Pen
That right there is five pitchers leaving two spots to fill with the remaining options. My first choice is Ramon Ramirez who could have been a sure thing, but still curious if he can keep up this low HR/FB%. His other numbers are not pretty and a 2.84 ERA is not going to happen this year. He’s got a spot, but expect an ERA more like his 3.48 ERA in the second half.
That leaves one spot and a lot of Triple-A invites for the remainder. Looking at the next three according to CHONE projections we have three pitchers near replacement level.
| Player | Age | G | GS | Won | Lost | IP | Hits | BB | SO | HR | HB | Runs | ER | ERA | R vs Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Cabrera | 28 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 24 | 4.50 | 1 |
| Randor Bierd | 26 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 38 | 15 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 4.26 | 1 |
| Dustin Richardson | 26 | 48 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 45 | 26 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 24 | 4.60 | 1 |
The most interesting name in there to me is Dustin Richardson who as a lefty could fill the need for a left hander specialist. His minor league numbers show a 10.73 K/9 against left handers, and a 9.08 against right handers. His walk rate is similar against both as well. I wouldn’t worry about the projected ERA of 4.60 if he was used only against lefties that should be better.
So who will be in the bullpen band this year come April and will it be better than last year? I expect my projection should be a good guess with Richardson as the big question. Last year the Red Sox relievers had a 3.80 ERA, which was eight in the league. I think there will be some struggles to be that good again, but they won’t be a failing to the team either.
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Ramon Ramirez has always had a low HR/FB%, even in his time with Colorado, so that doesn't seem like it should be a big worry. Actually, I think he's a better pitcher than his second half 2009 was, when his BABIP against went up 100 points over his first half.
Be careful when you use the term "always" about a reliever. He has only had 4 seasons in the majors and in those he has amassed 959 batters faced. I wrote about this before but Pizza Cutter who now works for Baseball Prospectus did a study on how many batters faced it takes to "trust" a stat. Here is my write up of the study http://www.rotosavants.com/2009/04/when-do-stats-...
The HR/FB stat is extremely variable, but can take a long time for it to settle into a trustable level. He tested out to 650 BF and never got a correlation r-squared better than 0.50. Any more BF and the sample size becomes to small to trust the test.
For a reliever to prove he can "control" a stat like HR/FB you should be ready to look at 6-8 years of data before making that analysis.
If Shouse is any good in spring training, he's likely to assume the Mike Myers Chair in Situational Leftydom (most recently held by Javier Lopez). I'm not saying he's my first choice, but given Tito's longstanding inclination toward veteran LOOGYs, Shouse looks like the man.
You have a point. I forgot to look at his situational stats, but with a 4.68 career K/BB against lefties I think he fits the bill. He must never see a right hander though as his career K/BB is 0.68 against them.
I don't think there's any question R.Ram v.1 is going to have a spot. It's going to come down to Bonser, Shouse and Atchinson for the last spot. Atchinson has options left, so I think he's a virtual lock to go down, ditto Shouse due to having a minor league deal. That leaves Bonser, who I think the club really wants to get a good look at in relief. I've heard encouraging sotries about Boof's abilities in the bullpen.
I don't think the 'pen will be as good as last year, but I think the improvement in starting pitching more than makes up for it. Considering that Lester, Lackey, Beckett, and hopefully Clay should get deep into games we probably won't have to see the back end often. The pen definitely isn't as deep, replacing Wagner and Saito with Bonser and one of the minor leaguers is definitely a downgrade, but I think that the guys we'll see the most by far are Bard, Oki, and Paps with less innings this year from Delcarmen, Ramirez, and the others. When you net it out it's an improvement in my mind