Mike Cameron Signs with the Sox
In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Fire Brand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?
10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.
I don’t want to shortchange all the good things Tim has done for the team. He’s closed ballgames in 1999; won 16 games in 1999 during one of the finest seasons ever by a knuckleballer; was worth almost 4 WAR in 2003; constantly sacrificed chances to pad his stats by taking the bullet for the bullpen doing blowouts; he even carried the team through playoff extra innings in 2004 during a defining moment in Red Sox history.
Being able to be a super swingman preserved his value in Tim’s most successful seasons, and his pride or dues shouldn’t be a roadblock from Clay Buchholz’ development or Matsuzaka’s reclamation attempt.
7-2: Jon Lester starts the 2010 All Star Game
While I should have labelled this no less than a 9-5 bet, Joe Girardi will still be selecting and nominating the AL pitching squad.
2010 is Jon Lester’s prime-time, Tim Lincecum-level breakout year. With skyrocketing strikeout rates, improved control, and the development of elite secondary offerings, Lester will officially surpass Josh Beckett as the staff ace and the elite American League pitcher others will look up to. A rocky BABIP stained April 09 set him back one year in the public eye. Double or nothing for a Cy Young award as well!
8-1: Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron see some green in their OPS
With a high amount of left field flyouts in Safeco and his reputation for pulling the ball, Adrian Beltre rebounds this year, surpassing his basic offensive projections due to a favorable home park. While Fenway tends to supress homeruns slightly compared to the league average, it is the most favorable doubles park in the majors, turning those left field flies into wall-ball doubles. Cameron’s profile is similar and their offensive resurgance will help the team forget about Jason Bay.
6-1: The Red Sox pay at least $1M/HR at DH
Mike Lowell and David Ortiz split enough time at DH, as Lowell’s contract doesn’t get moved, and combine for 25 home runs. One of my colleagues at Rotosavants had a great article a few weeks back about a possible rebound for David Ortiz. Hopefully if Mike Lowell gets angry about playing time, it’s because the “2nd half David Ortiz” sticks around all year this year.
35-1: Mike Cameron’s centerfield, where fly balls go to die, helps bring UZR in focus throughout Red Sox Nation
Sorry. Couldn’t help it. (Although that line is only about the UZR part, not about how pleased we’ll all be with Cameron’s defense.)
Enjoy your Super Bowl everyone! Let’s Go Saints!
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I'd take the action on Wakefield, DH homers and Cameron but not Beltre on the monster
I think there is enough of a chance of injury to one of the other five starters to open the season that Wake will get a chance. I'd be shocked if Lowell/Ortiz did not combine for at least 30 homers, let alone 25 though if you count just games at DH it will be closer. I'm optimistic about Ortiz for no valid reason.
Cameron is more of a flyball, pull hitter than Beltre. I can see Beltre flying out to the triangle a lot.
Starting the ASG is such a crap shoot I'd never bet on it. If you want to say Lester would be the best starter in the first half, well, taht's a good chance though he has been a slow starter his first couple of full seasons.
Because V.Mart needs a place to play when Tek catches, I see him likely to pinch hit for Papi against lefties as often as possible. If Bill Hall's bat returns, he will share this role with Victor.
It's painful to say, but I don't see Mike on the roster when the season starts, whether he is on the DL or another team. When Tek catches, he will hit against lefties most of the time, as he can still rake from the right side. Papi has been awful against lefties, so subbing V.Mart for Papi is logical. If Mike takes that role, then Victor's bat is out of the game, which is nonsensical at best.
If I were Tito, I would see Mike, Wake, Bonser, maybe Lowrie starting the year on the DL, all 4 returning from surgery, until the first road trip is over, allowing a full 7 man Pen, including another lefty like Richardson or Shouse against the NYY and KC at least, and giving the infield a chance to sort itself out before calling for reinforcements.
Speaking of which, i continue to be impressed by young SS Angel Sanchez, both his pre-Sox record, and his performance for P.R. in the Caribbean World Series. Does anyone know more about him?
Lester can pitch his best, but he will still need a bit of luck, not to mention true objectivity from Girardi, to get an All-Star starting nod. Would be nice to see of course. Winning a Cy Yound would neccessitate even more luck though. If he's in the top 10 for Cy Young consideration, it'll still be a plenty fine season.
At 10:1, Wakefield is probably the best wager to put down. There's always a possibility that one starter will tweak something in Spring Training and need to start the season on the DL. Enter Wakefield.