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Mike Cameron Signs with the Sox

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Fire Brand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?

10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.

I don’t want to shortchange all the good things Tim has done for the team. He’s closed ballgames in 1999; won 16 games in 1999 during one of the finest seasons ever by a knuckleballer; was worth almost 4 WAR in 2003; constantly sacrificed chances to pad his stats by taking the bullet for the bullpen doing blowouts; he even carried the team through playoff extra innings in 2004 during a defining moment in Red Sox history.

Being able to be a super swingman preserved his value in Tim’s most successful seasons, and his pride or dues shouldn’t be a roadblock from Clay Buchholz’ development or Matsuzaka’s reclamation attempt.

7-2: Jon Lester starts the 2010 All Star Game
While I should have labelled this no less than a 9-5 bet, Joe Girardi will still be selecting and nominating the AL pitching squad.

2010 is Jon Lester’s prime-time, Tim Lincecum-level breakout year. With skyrocketing strikeout rates, improved control, and the development of elite secondary offerings, Lester will officially surpass Josh Beckett as the staff ace and the elite American League pitcher others will look up to. A rocky BABIP stained April 09 set him back one year in the public eye. Double or nothing for a Cy Young award as well!

8-1: Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron see some green in their OPS
With a high amount of left field flyouts in Safeco and his reputation for pulling the ball, Adrian Beltre rebounds this year, surpassing his basic offensive projections due to a favorable home park. While Fenway tends to supress homeruns slightly compared to the league average, it is the most favorable doubles park in the majors, turning those left field flies into wall-ball doubles. Cameron’s profile is similar and their offensive resurgance will help the team forget about Jason Bay.

6-1: The Red Sox pay at least $1M/HR at DH
Mike Lowell and David Ortiz split enough time at DH, as Lowell’s contract doesn’t get moved, and combine for 25 home runs. One of my colleagues at Rotosavants had a great article a few weeks back about a possible rebound for David Ortiz. Hopefully if Mike Lowell gets angry about playing time, it’s because the “2nd half David Ortiz” sticks around all year this year.

35-1: Mike Cameron’s centerfield, where fly balls go to die, helps bring UZR in focus throughout Red Sox Nation
Sorry. Couldn’t help it. (Although that line is only about the UZR part, not about how pleased we’ll all be with Cameron’s defense.)

Enjoy your Super Bowl everyone! Let’s Go Saints!