There has been a lot of talk this offseason of how Josh Beckett will approach 2010 with John Lackey signed for the next five years. Will he be pissed or determined? We can’t know, but while Curt Schilling is feeling free to share his opinion again I’ll give my reason why he’s wrong and Beckett will be a free agent after 2010.
The first reason we already discussed a bit, but there are plenty of questions about Beckett’s health. I discussed this on Fireside chat #68, but the central point is Beckett has injury history that can be very concerning. While many will say what about Lackey’s history I also discussed that in the podcast. He has an injury that is less severe and from his velocity and movement looked better with rest.
Beckett was able to top 200 IP for just the third time in his career this year, but the last month was rough and might have been better served with a bit of rest. His back was a problem and could be seen in his lower velocity and some movement problems. This is no time to sign a pitcher and you should definitely wait to see how he does in 2010.
The next thing which I find to be the most important is Beckett is not the only pitcher available after this year. There are two pitchers currently headed to free agency worth discussing along with Beckett. Would the Red Sox be best served by bidding for the services of Cliff Lee and/or Brandon Webb while still talking with Beckett?
I can’t see why you wouldn’t wait with options like that. There will also be more high risk guys back again after one year deals. Just in case the Red Sox can’t grab one of the big prizes they won’t be left grabbing Ted Lilly as the only option.
I fail to see the reason why there should be a rush to sign Beckett, but I felt the same way with Jason Bay last year. The market is in flux and player salaries are dropping, so why make a rush judgment unless Beckett bends over backwards and takes a deal less than the 5/$85 they gave to Lackey.
Why is it when I look at Schilling making player signing suggestions I feel like when Garth Snow got the GM job for the New York Islanders and his first move was to sign Rick DiPietro to a 15/$67.5. When he makes a claim that Jon Lester is “an ace in the making” it’s tough to believe he doesn’t have personal feelings in this article.
A long shot is to replace him internally. That means looking hard at Casey Kelly this year as he progresses. The Red Sox are not ones to rush prospects, but he could force their hand now that he has committed to pitching. He wouldn’t be needed day one in 2011 as Tim Wakefield would still be an option for the number five spot.
I’m sure this season there will be leaks of contract talks throughout the season much as we heard for Bay. It’s not likely they conclude with a new deal though and Beckett will reach free agency for the first time. It would be tough to see Beckett leave, but the Red Sox cannot let feelings and sentimental value weigh more than talent evaluation, scouting, stats and medical reports.