With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?
10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.
9. David Ortiz’s walk rate - Like I said before regression doesn’t always mean negative. Ortiz had the lowest walk rate since 2004 and down from his career rate. I’m sure much of this was his inability to punish pitchers early on and getting behind in counts. His career rate is 13.1% and should be a solid target for him in 2010.
8. Jonathon Papelbon’s control – Not only did his walk rate climb, but you can see his first strike numbers and zone % were down. He had trouble getting pitches in the zone and when he did he had the highest contact rate against since 2005. All this change caused a rise in his BB/9 from 1.04 to 3.18. He can still be successful at this level, but he can’t be the dominant pitcher he was.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury’s defense - We all debated how much to trust numbers like UZR, but there is a statistical agreement that 2009 was not a good year for Ellsbury in center field. He had better numbers in 2008 and much better in limited time in left field. A return to average or better defense this year could be huge for the Red Sox.
6. Kevin Youkilis rise in strikeouts – Youkilis set a career high in strikeouts this year as he reached 30 years old. He struk out over 25% of his at bats and totaled 125 strikeouts. He’s not going to get younger and eventually that will get higher, but at only 31 this year it’s better to expect he’ll regress closer to a career rate of 21%.
5. Power from J.D. Drew – Drew had his first 20 home run season in Boston last year and saw his ISO reach .243, which was his highest since 2004 with the Braves. Power often increases with age so perhaps we should expect this output again in 2010, but that power can come at the cost of contact. His strikeout rate was up at 24% making this change look a bit like aging for Drew.
4. Josh Beckett’s health – Health is a skill and with Beckett reaching the highest number of innings in his career last year it’s tough to say he’ll make it back there in 2010. With so many common ailments from elbow to back to blisters I can’t see him reaching that level again. I would hope though that if he does get small injuries he takes the right precautions and doesn’t make it worse in an attempt to prove his health as he enters free agency.
3. Marco Scutaro’s walk rate – In 2009 Scutaro had his career year at 33 years of age and much of that value was on a career high OBP of .379. That had a lot to do with his BB% of 13.2%, which is much higher than his career rate of 9.6%. There is some evidence he was just swinging less and might face better pitches in 2010, but he has had these high walk rates before. In 2003 and 2006 he posted BB% over 11%. When you account for his varying playing time it’s tough to say what numbers to trust, but expect at least a small amount of regression.
2. Clay Buchholz’s love for worm killing – This shouldn’t be a huge surprise based on his minor league numbers, but Buchholz suddenly flashed a 53.8% groundball rate. That was more than 10% higher than his 2008 numbers. With so many changes and some amount of minor league track record it’s otugh to say how much he will regress, but it’s tough to expect that level in his first full season.
1. Jon Lester’s step forward in dominance – His 2008 may look more impressive, but in 2009 Lester suddenly put things together gaining his first K/9 over nine at 9.96 and a very solid K/BB of 3.52. His K/9 before 2009 was never higher than 7.14 in the majors. The tough part is accounting for his health while recovering from cancer. His fastball and cutter were at career high’s in velocity and showed his strength was fully back. A regression in his strikeouts could cause a step back this year and one of the biggest questions for the 2010 Red Sox.
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Way to be a downer.
10, 9, 8 and 7 are all chances for positive regression. Not quite half, but my feeling is that they should all even out in the end.
Do you really believe power increases with age?
It's not so much that it will increase, but it's an older players skill. Players will lose value in contact and speed with age, but also gain in walks and at least maintain power if not better. If you look at something like SLG though you will see it go down based on the falling contact rate.
OK Troy, all solid questions except for Buchholz. I don't care if he gets 'em out on the ground or with the strike out as long as he keeps his WHIP under 1.4. Is it reality check regression day? Try this over /under game.
……J D Drew games played: over 135 or under?……….Varitek starts behind the dish: over 30 or under?………..Beltre OBP: over .325 or under?……Cameron strike outs: over 150 or under?……Pedroia caught stealing: over 7 or under?…….Matsuzaka's WHIP: over 1.40 or under?
That's all Clay needs to do. Strikeouts keep guys of the bases, ground-balls reduce the chance of balls in play falling in for a hit. If he can keep those above average, he'll be fine… unless he turns into a Dice-K walk machine.
I'll take J.D. Drew as a push on 135. If I had to pick one I would say over, but only by a few games at most.
Tek will start more than 30 games based on Tito and V-Mart's ability to play first base.
Being that Beltre is a career OBP of .325 playing in Seattle and LA I think that is a sure over.
Cameron is over 150 K's with a full season of playing time.
All your other ones are close to career except the Pedroia CS. I think he is better on the base paths this year and while he might not reach 20 steals he is under 7 CS.
I'm going to say under for the WHIP on Matsuzaka, but again I don't think it's a lot. He just can't keep from giving free passes and will be over 1.30 for sure.
I'm hoping for Drew and the over 135 starts, Tek and the under 30 starts, Beltre and the over .325 OBP, Cameron and the under 150 SO, Pedroia and the under 7 caught, and Dice-K and the under 1.40 WHIP. I was trying to cherry pick one of the players worst stats and come up with a Vegas type line. With Tek, I just don't want to see him much in this line up. If he's in, either V-Mart, Youk, or Beltre end up on the bench. I think the world of what Varitek has done in Boston but the ship has sailed and it's time to coach. I would be happy to eat crow on this but I'll still take Tek to start under 30 games. I don't like to think regression with my team because I'm more like Gerry, below, with the optimistic thoughts. I do like to look for regression with other teams. Oh let's say NY maybe? Now that can be a fun study. Good regression post. It made me look at our 40 man roster again and again but then I got into the new splits on Fangraphs and decided to play this game another day. April 4th in 50 days !
No, it's not all he has to do. With our improved defense, a high ground ball rate should produce more outs and double plays but Buchholz can strike 'em out too. I want to see him throw strikes and keep his walk % down. I'd really like to see his WHIP at 1.2.
Great article. Regarding Lester, I do think he's vulnerable to a step back with strikeouts, but I also feel he'll be a bit more lucky with ERA, both on regression (xFIP last year: 3.13) and defense, so he might end up with a better ERA.
I'm of the school that success is a result of a million elements coming together just right. IMO, this team appears to have those elements coming together just right. Along with positive regression of MDC, Papi, Pap, Ells, equally important will be the seemingly inevitable positive regression of Beltre, Cameron, Hall, Hermida, Lowell, Matsuzaka, Pedroia, Reddick, and a part-time, rested Tek. They will each put alot of runs on the board.
I have been looking over teams past to find one with so much to prove, and so many individual players with so much to prove, and haven't found any quite like the 2010 Red Sox. Almost the entire 40-man roster is in urgent "I will do better in 2010" mode, from Papelbon to Richardson, Ellbury to Reddick, Scutaro to Lowrie, Ortiz to Hermida, Youk to Anderson, Matsuzaka to Tazawa, Cameron to Beltre, Pedroia to Hall. Those who read Firebrand understand the art of balancing personal stats and abilities with the "personal motivation factor" (revenge, contract, legacy, spirit, etc.) and how such an amalgam, in the right environment, can push a talented & motivated team to fire on all cylinders. Firing on all cylinders is what happens when those million elements come together just right. I'm thinking the Rays of '08, the NYY of second half '09, and the Red Sox of '10.
The constant rumbles of an unusually large # of players who worked out extra hard this offseason, and who are showing up to S.T. early and in great shape, are clear indications that this group, as a team and as individuals, are on a mission. The "personal motivation factor" is palpable. This could translate to an unusually high level of performance as a team.
Considering the "energy factor", another list could be made of the ingredients recently added to the clubhouse 'soup', with powerful and positive personalities like Bard, Beltre, Cameron, Lackey, Martinez, Scutaro who add fuel, enthusiasm & savvy to this mission, as well as the confidence and swagger that comes from day-after-day shut-down defense and pitching and the aggressive base running this team promises. This personal motivation + this real success on the field could, in a super-charged clubhouse, create a team which tends to do everything right, often described as a 'team of destiny'.
Add in the "Park Factor" for the highly motivated Beltre, Cameron, Hall, Hermida, Martinez, Scutaro and the regression discussion moves to an entirely different level. With the combination of awesome defense, consistently strong lineup (with 200HR power, enhanced speed, and high OBP), top pitching, park factor, personal motivation, an energized clubhouse, and we have the makings of a season in which everyone on the team could perform well above their statistical averages. Could the team regress to '04 & '07 success?