Our rivals/enemies/counterparts 210 miles to the South came out with their own bit of news on the heels of CC Sabathia’s poor 2 inning performance today (who cares if it’s spring stats, it’s still fun to say!).
With the contracts of future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in their final year this season, there’s been much talk about what kinds of contracts the Yankees should extend to two icons that have been with the franchise for close to 15 years. Let’s take a snapshot of both players from the point they signed their 2001 contracts.
Derek Jeter has averaged 18.9 million per year during his 10 year contract, reaching as high as 21 million this year. Since 2002, he’s been worth 40.1 Wins Above Replacement, averaging about 132.2 million dollars of market value. During that same time period, Jeter has been paid 157 million dollars. While it’s not the return on investment you should see from a player who never officially reached free agency, it’s a testament to what Jeter has been able to accomplish over the years, as the odds normally say a large long term contract like this usually follow the path the Cubs are enduring with Soriano.
Mariano Rivera, by comparison, has averaged 10.5 million per year over this same 10 year span, plateauing at 15 million from 2008 through 2010–the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher. Since 2002, Rivera’s been worth 19.4 Wins Above Replacement, averaging about 77.3 million dollars of market value. During that same time period, Rivera has been paid over 86 million dollars. With the ridiculous contracts some relief pitchers have been receiving, the return on investment the Yankees received from Rivera is astonishing. I’ll fully admit I’m the first person to yell and scream about how relievers aren’t worth the money they receive in recent years, but I still have appreciation for how well Cashman orchestrated these two deals, especially Rivera’s.
Now, after the brief history lesson, we come to the big question. With both of these Yankee icons running out of time at the fountain of youth, should the Yankees continue to dole out a premium contract for both of them for the sake of keeping them in pinstripes?
Rivera hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down. His 2009 was his worst year since 2002, but still worth two wins. Derek Jeter had a defensive renaissance and a park-aided power surge, but most projection systems still only peg him for a 3.5 WAR season, on par with his 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Lets say the Yankees expectedly roll out a 4/80 or 4/100 deal for Jeter, and another 15 millon annual contract for Rivera. Let’s also say both players expectedly regress towards the mean and decline with age normally. Would the wasted money be made up in pleasing the fan base for holding onto both players? Would not filling their spots with better or younger talent be the right move for the club?
How does this pertain to the Red Sox? The player who arguably carried playoff success on his shoulder during two early October mornings is up for renewal after 2010, and Ortiz’ 2009 season wasn’t one to write home about.
Do you think large market teams owe their fan bases these “thank you” contracts? Should money subsequently be wasted in order to force less turnover of marquee players? Or is this something only leveraged through the ultra spending power of the Yankees, as our own General Manager jettisoned the greatest modern day pitcher once his health deteriorated. Is the a scenario where smart business takes a backseat to your 8 year old baseball self actually good for baseball in general?
While we all enjoy seeing the Yankees fail (well, I do), they could establish an interesting precedent with Jeter and Rivera’s impending contracts. How do you think situations like these should be handled?
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evanbrunell: 
alexconvery: 
CharlieSaponara: 
I don't think either Jeter or Rivera will have a fall-off-the-cliff decline this year or in any single year, frankly. They'll slowly slip with age and miles, but i don't think either one will resemble Ortiz.
Both have been with the organization their entire careers, are fan favorites, and they should continue to produce. There's no reason any decent-payroll should let them go, and the Yankees have money to burn.
Agree, and two of the reasons they have money to burn are Jeter & Rivera, who fans of all teams pay to see. As Jeter declines, might he move to 2b and remain effective? The guys on MLB don't see him fadinig much as a SS over the next few years, so maybe he goes from good to average. Does he then move on to coaching? As Mariano declines, might he move from lights out closer to lights out set up man or 7th inning stopper? In either case, keeping them on the team as assetts over the next 4-5 years might hurt the team some, but not so much as their presence and skills would help the team. As a Sox fan, I am also a baseball fan, and the game will be diminished when those two move on.
New Yankee Stadium threw a wrench into Jeter's retirement plans. He had been following a similar path with his bat as he aged that Craig Biggio did and then all of a sudden that park got his power numbers back up. His natural decline should just sap his power and slowly lower his ISO enough to make his offensive contributions Adam Everett-like. Moving him out of shortstop to save his range coudl be interesting, but I think you'll see more of his time split at DH, especially if the Yankees continue to be smart and keep DH open as a way to rest regulars.
Rivera is simply a freak of nature, honestly. I'm amazed every year at his ability to be effective, and even more amazed by his class. My favorite Rivera moment by far was Opening Day 2005 when he gave the Fenway crowd a wave after we cheered for him. I was in my seats with my bdudy and said to him, "I think he actually realizes we're really cheering him, not zinging him."
While all of this is nice, I really can't see Jeter living up to a 20M annual contract over the next 4 years. Maybe a 4/60 deal, assuming his offense and range in the last 2 years really taper off. Whether or not he gets it is one thing, and whether rewarding his past 15 years at the expense of the ballclub is the million dollar question.
You are right though, I don't know a single team in baseball that doesn't wish Derek Jeter was their shortstop for the past 15 years, and he and Rivera have been great for baseball in general.
I think with Jeter and Rivera you have a unuiqe situation. These are two players that have not been slowed down by injury or age and are icons of the franchise. I'm not sure they'll pull in the same average annual salary they've been getting, but I think the Yankees will over pay (in therms of on field performance) to keep them because they have value off the field and don't' forecast to suck anytime soon.
i agree, interesting arguments can be made. With teams like the RS and Yankees, where there is so much revenue being generated… i think these teams can and should give such players something back at the end…
heck, i still have no problem with Mike Lowell's contract – after what he did in 07 in the WS…
these guys, Jeter and Rivera, are class acts and any team would be thrilled with them, i would see no reason why , esp. with the Fort Knox of the Steinbrenner vault cracked open, they would not be given gracious contracts to end their careers with the mothership.
in general, however, if i were a GM, owner, ….fan… i would expect to see more incentive based contracts loaded with injury provisions/conditioning expectations, etc.
These players have been good for the Yankees and the Yankees have been good to these players. No one owes anyone anything. I don't think the Yankees will be stupid enough to sign them to long-term, big-money deals; there is simply no precedent (baring performance enhancing drugs) for players to maintain that level of performance.
To answer your question, I think the most elegant way to continue on at this stage of your career, when you have put big money in the bank, is to do what Wakefield and the Sox did. Sign a simple deal, agreeing on whatever salary the player feels they need to make playing worthwhile. And the club can simply renew it year by year, based on the player's performance. That player can set that salary high or low, depending on their desire to continue to play. Wakefield set his number low enough that the Sox simply have to determine if he will contribute or not.
No post about Nomar today?