Month: April 2010

Fireside Chats #76: Where we [insert David Ortiz joke here]

The Red Sox are back to .500 having won seven of their last nine games. Let's all pay proper respect to the performances of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz now and hope that this starts a trend that Jon Lackey and Josh Beckett can follow through on. Paul and I ask the tough questions in this episode, "when will the Red Sox and David Ortiz part ways?" and "can anyone catch the Tampa Bay Rays?" With April coming to a close, we look forward to the month of May which looks to be hold a critical stretch of games against playoff caliber teams. We'll soon find out exactly what this team is made of. All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats.

Jason Bay is now average defender

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
A little over a week ago fangraphs.com updated their UZR calculations with the first batch of 2010 data. This update included some work on arm skill as well as changes for quirky stadiums including Fenway Park. This change was done to include previous seasons and now Jason Bay made one of the largest gains as his -13.8 runs value became a 1.9 value. John Tomase decided to use this as a chance to say UZR owes Jason Bay an apology. Let's start with a reminder there is no chance the Red Sox are using UZR and have their own model so let's not make any assumptions UZR had anything to do with the Red Sox failing to sign him. Even with the changes no stat is perfect and I'm sure we'll be discussing the next Bay in the offseason. Perhaps that will be Jeremy Hermida who has improved his defense in UZR coming from Florida.

A Little Perspective

As of this writing Tuesday evening, the 2010 Red Sox stand 20 games into their season. With a record of 9-11, the Red Sox sit in fourth place in the AL East, and this is already the latest they've been under .500 since 1996 (a season in which they finished with a respectable but not quality 85-77 record, and third place in the division). They rank 11th in the majors in runs scored (which is a somewhat surprising standing, all things considered) and an almost unthinkable 28th in the majors in runs allowed -- only the Reds and Pirates have been worse (quick aside: the Pirates have managed to be outscored this season by an astonishing 85 runs, which comes out to an average of over 4 runs per game... so it could be worse). By all accounts, this season has begun worse than any in the current era of Red Sox teams.

How much weight, though, can we put on 20 games? Can a team that has been as hopelessly bad as the Red Sox have been, over this long a stretch, possibly compete in the division or for the championship? To find out, I decided to look back at some of the strongest Red Sox teams in recent memory (and one incredibly strong non-Red Sox team) and compare this 20 game stretch to the worst ones I could find. Now, before I go into the details, I know that I'm cherry-picking below. I also know that I can't equate the first 20 games of a season with a similar stretch later in the year in terms of their emotional impact. However, 20 games are 20 games in the standings, and these first 20 count just as much as the last 20 or a stretch of games in July and August. So knowing that this is all kinds of imperfect but that it's also at least worth thinking about, let's proceed.

Adrian Gonzalez takes another step away from the Sox

MLB 2010 - Padres Beat Rockies 5-4
I've never thought the Red Sox had much shot of adding Adrian Gonzalez this past offseason or any year before his free agency year. So far this season though Gonzalez and the Padres have made a deal even harder as he is off to a huge start and the Padres are winning. They are currently 4 games above .500 in this young season with Gonzalez producing very well. That is not the newest reason for a diminished chance to add Gonzalez. I think the awful signing of Ryan Howard might hinder the future prospects of signing the slugging first baseman. Howard agreed to a five year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for a total of $125 million. That at first seems like a bit of an overpay, but when you add on a $23 million option with a $10 million buy out and his two years left on his current deal it is a train wreck. This has to change the market when looking at all the big name power hitting sluggers coming up in the next few years. That list includes Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Plus they're all better and younger than Howard. These guys will all be signing deals that start in there pre 30's except the best of the bunch, Pujols.

One Coming, One Going?

In a day that saw the Red Sox add another very intriguing, young, good hitting catcher, they may also be saying goodbye to a old friend. (Click on the headline or 'read more' below.)