These past two nights, we’ve gotten a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Strong pitching performances by Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, backed by an offense that at worst grinds down opposing pitchers and at best can be explosive, with two solid W’s as a result. So is this a Sox team we can expect to see more of, or just a mirage that will soon evaporate?
I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.
The Pitching Is Getting Better (Really!)
The refrain going into this season was that our starting staff was unstoppable, the best in the majors. Three aces, a young star, and either Wake or Matsuzaka rounding it out certainly sounded dangerous on paper. But it seems like someone forgot to tell them that, as right out of the gate the starting staff struggled mightily. Beckett was shelled in three of his first four starts, with the other being a somewhat mediocre win over the Royals; Lackey started better, putting a zero on the board for six innings against the Yankees, but had very mixed results over his next three games. The biggest surprise out of the gate was the performance of Jon Lester, who was rocked three straight games and displayed a poor K/BB ratio throughout. In all three of their last starts, however, there has been dramatic improvement: Beckett’s seven inning, two-run start against the O’s featured six strikeouts and no walks, a far cry from his previous totals; Lackey nearly duplicated that line, though he added three walks; and Lester hurled the first true gem of the season, going seven while allowing just a hit and two walks and striking out eleven. Yes, all three games were against the Orioles, and yes the Red Sox lost all three. However, if the three of them can begin to pitch in a manner befitting their salaries and reputations, this team will improve in a hurry.
The Offense is Not as Bad as You Think:
Interestingly, the offense has been, if not a bright spot, then at least not an Achilles Heel so far. Remember that coming into the season, few people doubted that the Sox would be able to prevent runs; they doubted that they’d be able to score them. In reality, though, those roles have switched: the Red Sox have scored 113 runs, 6th best in the American League. The 1927 Yankees they’re not, but the common wisdom of February was that this club would sit toward the bottom of the pack in runs scored all year. That has proven not to be the case.
The Offense is Going to Get Better:
Not only has the offense not been a weakness, it could be about to turn into a strength. Consider this: the Red Sox have amassed that run total with a practically non-existent DH, an All-Star catcher who was not producing, a right fielder mired in an awful season-opening slump, and a third baseman whose only apparent skill was the ability to hit a single. But Mike Lowell is beginning to sub in more frequently at DH, and if Ortiz really is on his way out, Lowell will be a capable substitute. Martinez is sure to heat up soon, and J.D. Drew already has, with nine hits (three homers) over his last four games, pulling his season OPS up over .800 for the first time. With Beltre getting more comfortable and hitting for more power, and Ellsbury and Cameron on their way back, this offense is probably going to see some improvement over the next few weeks.
People Heal:
Injuries have been a factor as well, from the previously-mentioned Cameron and Ellsbury to Youkilis’ recent absence, Matsuzaka’s recovery, and Wakefield’s aging frame. The biggest factor here will be the return of Ellsbury — the latest seems to be that he’s progressively improving, though a date for his return hasn’t been set. When he does, he’ll stabilize the top of the order, and shift Scutaro back to the nine spot. Cameron’s return should provide a boost in power as well (though Darnell McDonald has certainly been a pleasant surprise in that department).
So, there’s my case. Responses, insults, and threats against my family welcome below, but remember: when August rolls around and the Sox are within three of the Rays or Yanks, I’ll still be here to gloat.