The Red Sox were awarded the waiver claim on Angels catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli, but a deal could not be reached between the two teams. It was reported from the start that a deal was unlikely. The Angels were — and should be — asking for a decent return for their home run leader and there is no reason for the Sox to make a rash decision based on their current situation. However, A Napoli to the Sox deal should be revisited this offseason as he has a chance to provide the Sox with an inexpensive alternative to an older Victor Martinez.
Mike Napoli makes a ton of sense in the Red Sox lineup. He’s a pure power hitter who has shown the ability to get on base at a league average or better clip in the past — seems like Angels hitting coach Mickey Hatcher has finally got to him (Hatcher preaches a more aggressive approach). He’s not a great defensive catcher, but then again, neither is Victor Martinez. While V-Mart has had the more glorified career, Napoli has plugged along and hit his home runs, yet at no point has Napoli come close to 500 at-bats. For his career, Napoli has a 16.85 AB/HR rate, which would translate to about 30 home runs over 500 at-bats.
The middle of the Red Sox order will be a big question mark this offseason. What will Adrian Beltre demand on the open market? Will they exercise David Ortiz’s $12.5 million dollar option ( I would think so)? Other than Youkilis, what do the Sox have that they can depend on?
If I had to guess, I would say that there is a 99.9% chance the Angels trade Mike Napoli this offseason and it won’t be due to his lack of skills. Mike Scioscia has never been a fan of Napoli. He likes his catcher to take pride in their defense and, after a fallout this spring training, has continued to find ways to keep Napoli out of the lineup despite the fact that he is the Angels best power threat by a mile.
Can the Sox take advantage of this?
I’m not going to speculate as to what types of player(s) the Angels would be looking for in return, but their motivation to deal Napoli should remain quite high.
Napoli will go to the opposite field and has power the other way, but the majority of his balls in play are to his pull side. That, combined with a fly ball rate over 40 percent, would, in theory, lead to more hits off of the green monster as well as more home runs over the green monster. Napoli has three home runs and three doubles in only 41 career at-bats at Fenway Park.
The Sox have yet to get into serious discussions with Victor Martinez about a contact past this season. Given his track record, V-Mart is sure to ask for a significant deal in terms of years and dollar amount. With Napoli, the Sox would have him under team control through 2012 (arbitration eligible). For the past two seasons, Naopli has held a 2.8 and 2.7 WAR respectively. He is at 2.2 WAR this season, with limited at-bats once again. If the Sox could move Naopli between catcher, DH and first base, giving him 500 or more at-bats, he should easily see a three-plus WAR season.
Again, what it would take to acquire Napoli via trade is up for debate, but Napoli’s days as a member of the Angels are numbered. The Sox need a catcher and they need a middle of the order slugger capable of 25-plus home runs and a league average or better OBP.
While Victor Martinez turns 32-years-old in 2011, Mike Napoli will still be only 29 with several years left until he hits free agency. A proper number of at-bats is the only thing holding Napoli back so far in his career. Let’s hope the Sox are the team that gets to give him those extra at-bats.