There are 20 players in Major League Baseball right now that have 25-plus home runs and an OBP over .360. David Ortiz is one of those players and the list of names around him represent some of the best offensive talents in the game today.
| Name | HR | OBP |
| Jose Bautista | 43 | 0.382 |
| Albert Pujols | 36 | 0.403 |
| Adam Dunn | 34 | 0.363 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 33 | 0.428 |
| Paul Konerko | 33 | 0.396 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 32 | 0.376 |
| Joey Votto | 32 | 0.426 |
| Josh Hamilton | 31 | 0.414 |
| Mark Teixeira | 30 | 0.372 |
| Prince Fielder | 30 | 0.408 |
| Dan Uggla | 29 | 0.360 |
| David Ortiz | 29 | 0.366 |
| Ryan Howard | 28 | 0.344 |
| Adrian Beltre | 27 | 0.365 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 27 | 0.398 |
| Nick Swisher | 26 | 0.363 |
| Rickie Weeks | 26 | 0.365 |
| Robinson Cano | 26 | 0.380 |
| Matt Holliday | 25 | 0.374 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 25 | 0.384 |
Despite extremely slow starts over the past two seasons (including this one), David Ortiz continues to show skills that translate well for a designated hitter. First of all, he hits home runs, obviously. Second, he still knows how to take a walk and make pitchers work. Ortiz leads the Red Sox regulars in walk rate (14%) as well as pitches seen per plate appearances (4.41).
Ortiz will be 35 next season, which is not exactly young in baseball terms, but not exactly over the hill just yet. Over the past two seasons, Ortiz has shown that he understands how to adjust as his skills decline. In his hay-day, Ortiz could hit for both power and AVG while limiting his strikeouts. Now, as his bat speed continues to slow, Ortiz knows that he can’t catch up good fastballs on the inner half and above the belt like he used to. As you can see from pitch f/x data (via TexasLeaguers.com), Ortiz has learned to lay off these pitches, swinging much less frequently at them this season.
Laying off of these high pitches has helped Ortiz lower his fly ball rate from 50.5 percent last season to a more reasonable 45.2 percent this season. This also includes a lower infield fly ball rate from 9.1 percent in 2009 to 8.3 percent this season.
Though this new approach has led to a better AVG/OBP/SLG, there are some areas of concern. As his swing slows, Ortiz becomes more reliant on guessing at pitches and starting his swing earlier in order to catch up to good fastballs. This has resulted in him swinging at more pitches outside the strike-zone than ever before in his career and has made him much more susceptible to offspeed pitches low and away. Those two factors have led to a career high strikeout rate, which doesn’t project to improve in 2011 and beyond.
What this new approach means to Ortiz’s future is that: 1) He obviously won’t hit for a high AVG and there is enough risk in his strikeout rate to forsee an AVG around .250. 2) He should continue to hit home runs and draw plenty of walks, which makes him an asset at the DH position.
The second part of this equation are the options available to replace Ortiz should the Sox not pick up his option or work out an extension.
Three names leap off the page when looking at 2011 free agents who could possibly DH: Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena.
Dunn, the most appealing slugger on that list, has already stated that he does not want to be a DH. Konerko will be coming off of his best season in years, but has a history of not being able to stay healthy. He’s 35 and will likely demand at least a three-year deal on the open market and a raise over his current deal, which pays him $12M annually. Odds are that Konerko would rather sign with a team willing to play him at first base everyday. Pena is an intriguing option as his power numbers remain very strong (16.3 AB/HR this season), but he is an extreme risk with regards to AVG, which in turn could hurt his OBP. Also, Pena is a Scott Boras client and would likely seek a multi-year contract worth more than the $10.125M he is making this season.
There are other cheaper options like Derrek Lee, Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen, but given their 2010 performances, each is a considerable risk.
And no, the Sox should not look at bringing back Man-Ram.
The bottom line is that the Sox have a reliable bat in Ortiz to plug into their 2011 lineup should they pick up his option. While his skills are declining, he still does enough damage in power and OBP to help this team contend.
Ortiz has been worth 2.8 WAR this season and $11M according to Fan Graphs. Even if Ortiz does see a regression in AVG and OBP, he should still hit enough home runs and drive in enough runs to be a 2 WAR player. That won’t make him worth $12.5M, but it would certainly be close enough. Plus, the Sox wouldn’t have to dish out a multi-year deal or take on the risk of a less expensive DH.
Think of where the White Sox would be right now if they had brought back Jim Thome on a one year deal. The Red Sox can ill-afford to have that happen to them in 2011.