On Tuesday, I posted a comparison between Clay Buchholz and the other AL Cy Young front-runners. I then added in the numbers of my personal pick for the award, Francisco Liriano. The first and then most frequent response to the piece was, “Where’s Jon Lester?”
While the context of the article was to focus on Buchholz in comparison to the other Cy Young favorites, it certainly seems like an injustice to leave Lester out of the conversation. He has all the numbers one would want, both old school (W/ERA) and new school (K/BB). After looking at the numbers, it’s hard not to imagine Jon Lester getting serious consideration for the AL Cy Young award.
Stats as of 9/30/10
| Player | IP | W-L | ERA | FIP | xFIP | K/9 | BB/9 | Whiff% |
| Jon Lester | 204 | 19-8 | 2.96 | 2.99 | 3.24 | 9.71 | 3.44 | 24% |
| Felix Hernandez | 249.2 | 13-12 | 2.27 | 3.05 | 3.27 | 8.36 | 2.52 | 22% |
| Francisco Liriano | 186.1 | 14-9 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 2.49 | 9.42 | 2.75 | 27% |
| CC Sabathia | 237.2 | 21-7 | 3.18 | 3.55 | 3.78 | 7.46 | 2.8 | 21% |
| David Price | 207.2 | 19-6 | 2.73 | 3.44 | 4.01 | 8.1 | 3.42 | 21% |
When it comes to wins, losses and ERA, Lester is right in the mix. He has only two fewer wins than Sabathia and one more loss while posting a better ERA. Sabathia has the edge on innings however, which could give him the edge in the voters eyes. If we are going to use more sabermetric minded numbers, Lester blows Sabathia out of the water. Lester has a much higher K/9 and has only walked roughly one half batter more per nine innings this season. He has also allowed fewer home runs per nine innings and has a higher ground ball rate than Sabathia.
Lester may profile more like David Price on the surface, but with almost two strikeouts per nine more than Price and fewer home runs allowed, Lester has a clear edge.
Liriano has been the most dominant pitcher of the group with regards to missing bats and keeping the ball in the ballpark, but he has notably fewer innings pitched and a 14-9 record, which may not be his fault, but could still effect the votes in the end. Felix Hernandez is the other major threat. Despite his 13-12 record, Hernandez has been utterly dominant in 2010 while throwing 45.2 more innings than Lester.
What this all boils down to is a matter of opinion. What matters more to the voters? ERA, and wins or peripheral stats that show how dominant a pitcher has been regardless of run support of defensive help?
Lester, in my eyes, is clearly a better choice than David Price. Liriano, while dominant in 2010, may not have the innings to compete for the award. I would take Lester and Hernandez over Sabathia because, in my eyes, wins don’t mean much when you account for run support and other factors beyond a pitcher’s control and even at that the difference in wins, losses and ERA is not significant between the two. Hernandez may be the biggest competition here due to his extra innings pitched to go along with top-notch peripheral stats.
If we use WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to give us even more backup, Lester holds his own with Hernandez and Liriano while showing a clear separation from Sabathia and Price.
| Player | WAR |
| Felix Hernandez | 6.4 |
| Francisco Liriano | 6.2 |
| Jon Lester | 5.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 4.8 |
| David Price | 4.4 |
No matter how the voting turns out, there are a few real solid choices for the AL Cy Young this season. There is no doubt in my mind that Lester should be near the top when the voting is said and done. Even if Lester doesn’t win this season or get the votes he deserves, it is of no matter to Sox fans. Winning is what matters and Lester will be the ace that helps the Sox contend for AL East pennants for years to come.