Mike Cameron was once considered the best defensive centerfielder in baseball.
But today, he is a somewhat forgotten man in Boston. After hitting the shelf in 2010 with multiple abdomen and kidney stone issues, any visions of a defensive whiz roaming center field at Fenway Park are distant memories.
The Plan
When Cameron was signed to a two-year deal in the offseason, it was to anchor the outfield defensively and serve as the point of emphasis for the newly-minted ‘run prevention’ era.
Certainly, preventing runs is not a novel concept, but the Boston Red Sox pushed the platform from a strategic and marketing perspective and built very high expectations for a skeptical fan base. Moving away from the poor fielding of Jason Bay and replacing him with a moderately comparable bat and a superior defensive player, the Red Sox expected to come out ahead in the exchange.
Unfortunately, Cameron battled injuries all summer until he was permanently disabled in late July, failing to leave a positive impact on the 2010 Red Sox.
What’s Next?
For a lot of Red Sox fans, the assumption now is that Cameron will be relegated to a fourth outfielder role in 2011. At least that is the hope for the handful of people I have spoken with about this topic. If the Red Sox were to bring in the likes of Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford, it would be hard to imagine a large role for Cameron.
But what if the Red Sox pass on both of those marquee free agents? Is there anything left in the tank for Cameron? From 2006 through 2009, the now 37-year old center fielder averaged 23 home runs and 31 doubles a season. While that’s not exactly middle-of-the order power, it still is a projectable replacement for Bay when you factor in the expected defensive gains. With all of the injuries to the 2010 team, the true test of this opening day lineup is still unmeasured.
Defensive centerfielders with 20+ home run power do not grow on trees and this is why the Red sox signed Cameron to a two-year deal. The acquisition was similar to that of Marco Scutaro’s in that both players would conceptually serve as a bridge (ugh, bridge year) to the up-and-coming minor league prospects or even one of the big free agent fish on the market.
With all of the sports hernias and kidney stone issues that Cameron dealt with this year, his season was a washout and he totaled just 162 at-bats flashing below average power and very little speed. No one saw what could do in Boston.
If healthy, Cameron carries a double-digit walk rate that helps balance out his propensity for striking out (14% BB, 71% CT). What it would not balance out would be the uproar in Boston if the Red Sox failed to make a splash this offseason. Red Sox fans want Carl Crawford and if not Crawford — then Werth. (Check out the poll to the right)
Crawford and Werth
Despite what the fans want, it’s really hard to envision the Red Sox paying Werth the money he wants and also committing the number of contract years he will be looking for. It is expected that Werth will be looking for something in the range of five years and $80 million dollars as a baseline. Does that sound like something Theo Epstein would put himself on the hook for on a 32-year old career National League outfielder? I just can’t see that coming.
Crawford, on the other hand, might be a guy the Red Sox are willing to throw a ton of cash at. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pass over on both players and focus on re-signing Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz and Victor Martinez. Crawford is 29 and has the proven track record of performing at an elite level in the AL East, but the price tag will be in the ballpark of $90-$100 million for five or six years. And we all know the Yankees will be dumping wheelbarrows of Benjamins at Crawford’s feet.
The Yankees have stated publicly that they are happy with Brett Gardner, but something tells me that if New York thinks they can swoop in and steal both Cliff Lee and Crawford, they will, further emphasizing the willingness and power of their bankroll.
It’s fun to daydream of signing the big-named free agents, especially after a down year, but the reality is that the Red Sox have a self-imposed salary cap to avoid a luxury tax. In 2011, that figure will be $178 million dollars and it would be very hard to imagine the Red Sox exceeding that number.
According to Tim Dierkes of MLBTrade Rumors , an estimate of Boston’s offseason contract/salary cap situations is as follows:
• Designated hitter David Ortiz has a $12.5MM club option.
• Third baseman Adrian Beltre has a $5MM player option that increases to $10MM with 640 plate appearances. It’ll be tough to reach that plate appearance benchmark, and if the option remains at $5MM it’ll be an easier choice for Beltre to decline. He gets a $1MM buyout for reaching 575 PAs.
• Bill Hall has a $9.25MM club option with a $500K buyout. Doug Melvin signed Hall to this extension in February of ’07. Here in 2010, Theo Epstein won’t be considering the option.
• Reliever Scott Atchison has a $440K club option with a $10K buyout.The Sox have four additional free agents: Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Scott Schoeneweis. They earn a total of $23.2MM this year. Around $46MM will come off the books if everyone leaves. There are also a few decreases to consider – $2MM for Tim Wakefield if he fails to reach 130 innings, and $6.25MM for John Lackey assuming his signing bonus was paid up front. 2010 obligations to former players total $10.5MM (Julio Lugo, Billy Wagner, and Alex Gonzalez). If everyone leaves, and we add in the decreases and money to former players, the Red Sox free up around $64.75MM. I assume things look different for luxury tax purposes, but we’re keeping it simple.
The Red Sox have five players under contract getting raises: Kevin Youkilis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Josh Beckett. Those raises total $10.525MM. Boston also has Jacoby Ellsbury going to arbitration for the first time, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, and Boof Bonser in the second-time group, and Jonathan Papelbon and Jeremy Hermida as third-timers. We’ll assume this results in $10MM worth of raises.
By my estimate, the Red Sox would have more than $40MM to work, holding payroll steady.
So with ~$40 million to spend — how do you address Ortiz’ $12.5 million dollar option, stabilize the bullpen and find a way to sign Victor Martinez , all while staying under the luxury threshold? You do it by letting Beltre walk, giving the third base gig to Jed Lowrie full-time and handing the center field reigns back to Cameron for one more year and hope everyone stays healthy.
Are you ready to go with Cameron in 2011?