With the rumor-mill beginning to heat up on the impending 2011 off-season, we turn our sights on free-agent-to-be Cliff Lee, who has been tied to the Red Sox in recent days…
Since his 22-win breakout season in 2008, Lee has consistently ranked among the top pitchers in the MLB. And though he has achieved higher marks in the BBWAA stats in past years, 2010 may have been his best yet. Sporting an off-the-charts 0.76 BB/9 and 10:1 BB:K ratio, Lee has looked every bit the ace baseball fans have come to expect.
Perhaps the greatest thing about Cliff Lee is his approach: pound the zone all game, every game. His stellar 56.6 zone percentage and 69.8 zone percentage are at the core of his success, leading to his miniscule walk rate.
Though there is little in the Pitch FX annals to use as precedent, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that Lee can keep up this trend for as long as he wishes. Since command is his overarching skill, and he doesn’t rely on terrific velocity or a high K-rate, his skill set does seem vulnerable to the typical age-related decline of decreased velocity and lost strikeouts.
His contact rate has never been particularly good — below average, even — so even if he were to lose some of his raw stuff, he wouldn’t necessarily lose his effectiveness. Taking his 2010 contact rates as a baseline (72.0 percent O-Contact, 88.4 Z-Contact, 84.1 Contact percentage), even if his overall contact rate shot through the roof to near 90 percent, he still wouldn’t lose more than about three-tenths of a run from his ERA.
When considering that a 90-percent contact percentage would rank near the worst in the league, Lee seems to be about as fail-proof as any Major League pitcher around. So long as he can pound the zone, he should remain effective.
That’s a nice, replicable recipe for success.
There’s just one catch though.
Given a closer look, Lee doesn’t seem to be the perennial Cy Young contender he’s portrayed these past three seasons. Rather, he looks more like an excellent #2 starter on a playoff-caliber team — contributing quality starts on a regular clip, but with a 3.50-3.60 ERA instead of a 3.20-3.30.
Not that there’s anything wrong with this type of pitcher. In fact, he’s quite the catch. It’s just a bit unlikely that he’ll continue registering HR/FB rates of around 6.0 while overshooting his K/9 rate by about a batter per nine frames. His ~6.0 HR/FB rate should rise a bit in the coming seasons, while his K/9 rate should fall back below 7.00 in due time. Given these adjustments, his 2010 line translates to approximately a 3.57 ERA.
Good. Great, even. But not a Cy Young contender with the likes of Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Jered Weaver in the hunt.
As for the Sox’ prospects of signing Lee, the club should not tread lightly. With Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey locked in, and Clay Buchholz improving by leaps and bounds, there doesn’t seem to be any room for another starter — even one with Lee’s tremendous talent. Given the organization’s enormous financial commitment to those first four starters, the front office would have to either cut Buchholz from the rotation or trade one of the veterans. Given their price tags, the former seems far more likely. Unfortunately, the Sox could be doing more damage than good, as Buchholz seems primed to take that next leap toward the top of the rotation. His 2011 should prove that last year was no fluke.
Nonetheless, the Red Sox should never hesitate when given the chance to improve the club with a talent like Lee’s. They just need to be sure they have a reliable exit strategy and/or trade partner ready should they do so.
In the end, a major push for Cliff Lee doesn’t seem all that likely… or prudent. Don’t root for his acquisition unless the Sox can be assured of moving Daisuke or Lackey. Translation: don’t count on it.