No LOOGY? No Problem

Baseball has become a game of specialized players, especially when it comes to the bullpen. The bullpen is so specialized…

Around the AL East in December

BALTIMORE ORIOLES Although they may be just a 70-win team, the attitude is already better in Baltimore with new manager…

A Closer Look at Matt Albers

For all the pain he has caused Baltimore fans in the past few years, it raised a few eyebrows when the Sox inked Matt Albers 10 days ago.
The soon-to-be 27 year-old has endured a relatively rocky Major League career, posting a 5.11 ERA over 317.3 IP. Totaling just 1.3 WAR over a five year career (not to mention a 1.38 K:BB ratio), he doesn’t seem to fit the mold of a Red Sox’ middle reliever.
Nonetheless, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on Albers, as the righty has a rather intriguing skill set that suggests better performances to come.
While Albers is no stud in the strikeout department (note the 82.8 percent contact rate), his primary and overarching skill is the ability to induce ground balls. Posting a 28.9 percent fly ball rate last season (and 32.3 percent over his five-year career), Albers has been able to control the damage when he is on the mound.
Preventing home runs is often one of the less expensive traits on the free agent reliever market, as many teams have a tendency to overspend on inferior pitchers who generate more strikeouts.
Albers is one of those types, as his ground ball rate is what separates him from being AAA fodder. For example, if we hold Albers’ 2010 peripherals steady, but raise his fly ball percentage to 45 percent -- a rate typical of a fly ball reliever -- his expected ERA would rise from a useful 4.394 to a damaging 5.011. Without a low fly ball rate, Albers becomes less than ordinary very quickly.
Perhaps the one reason to be cautious about Albers is that his upside is limited. Lacking swing-and-miss stuff, as well as a tendency to lose his handle on the strike zone, Albers will often teeter on the edge of replacement level in any given season.
Of particular concern is his very low zone percentage, which stood at just 38.3 percent last season. While some of that was certainly by design (as evidenced by his 30.6 percent O-Swing rate), it bears watching for the upcoming season. Hopefully, Albers can raise his zone percentage into the mid-40s, while keeping his O-Swing in the upper 20s. If he is able to select his chase pitches more effectively, he may be able to cut his walk rate under 4.00 per nine, while dropping his ERA into the low 4.00s.
One last point of concern about Albers has to do with a factor of his performance that holds a bit of uncertainty. When running through his projections, I arrived at two slightly different conclusions regarding his 2010 expected ERAs. The first result of his expected ERA, the number I often quote, yielded a 4.255 expected ERA.
However, when standardizing for his expected strand rate, Albers fared worse, projecting a 71.8 percent strand rate (compared to an actual rate of 69.1 percent). This strand rate produced an expected ERA of 4.533, right in line with his actual ERA of 4.52.
Unfortunately, much of the reason to be optimistic about Albers has to do with the first ERA projection of 4.25. On the other hand, I am still in the process of gathering data to create a more reliable strand rate evaluation, so there is room for interpretation. Of note, in the studies I have conducted, starting pitchers have almost no control over their strand rate, while relievers have shown a good amount thus far. However, without a concrete reason for this discrepancy, I will seek to acquire more data.

In the end, there is no reason not to be excited about the Red Sox addition of Matt Albers. Besides the possibility of latent improvement, Albers has compiled just three full years of service time, allowing the club to keep him under control through 2013. Steady, cost controlled relief pitching is always a welcome commodity, and Albers adds some flexibility in this department for the next couple years. He’s not a sexy acquisition, but depth is often what separates the contenders from the wannabes.
Just ask the 2010 Red Sox.

The Value of Tim Wakefield in 2011

This has been a busy offseason for the Sox (understatement). The additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford have transformed…

The Red Sox Have Always Liked Lenny DiNardo

He’s bounced around with a handful of teams and of course we all remember him as a Rule 5 pick…

Fireside Chats #93: Where everybody’s Jenks’in around…

Episode #93 Hosts: Paul Testa, Tim Daloisio Guests: none [podcast]http://redsoxtimes.com/podcast/93_12_21_10_firesidechats.mp3[/podcast] Acquire slugger — check Acquire corner outfielder — check Watch…

2011 Projections: Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia 2011 projection: AB AVG OBP SLG OPS HR R RBI SB 644 .300 .373 .477 .850 15 112…

Hardball Times 2011 Forecasts

Another thing I’ve been involved in I’d like to share… I used to write a weekly column for The Hardball…

Wheeler, Jenks Added to the ‘Pen

Jenks and Wheeler will be welcome additions to the back end of the bullpen. Though Jenks may be coming off a rough season by conventional standards -- dropping in a 4.44 ERA despite nailing his key peripherals.

Those peripherals earned Jenks his two-year $12 million deal -- and for good reason. With a 10.42 K/9 rate and 3.09 BB/9 rate, the White Sox closer was able to compile a 2.59 FIP to go alongside a 1.5 WAR.

Also of note was the sustained velocity on Jenks’ fastball, which averaged a cool 95.0 mph. Many have speculated that the decline in Jenks’ strikeout rate was the result of a loss in fastball velocity, which fell from 97.0 in 2005 to 93.8 in 2008. This likely played a role, though mechanics and fatigue may have also played a role.

But it isn’t all rosy with Jenks as the Sox’ new setup man. Despite the strong peripherals, there are parts of his performance that don’t add up to stardom. While his control and groundball indicators are still excellent, his strikeout numbers give reason for pause.

In particular, Jenks’ 81.3 percent contact rate needs to improve in order to sustain such a lofty strikeout total. Most notably, his 89.7 percent zone contact rate won’t result in another strikeout rate north of 9 per 9 anytime soon.

Nevertheless, Jenks is a very good reliever who should have no problem registering an ERA in the mid-3.00s, which will be more than acceptable for an AL East team with championship aspirations.

Dan Wheeler was the other primo signing by the Sox this past week, inked for $3 million on Saturday. The former Rays bullpen hand is coming off another stellar season -- his third consecutive with an ERA under 3.35.

The Wheeler signing is certainly an interesting one, however, as his superb ERAs are largely the product of extremely low BABIPs. In fact, his lowest of the last three seasons occurred this year, with a .243. The other two were .202 and .203 in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

What makes Wheeler so interesting is the fact that he has been able to sustain his low BABIPs. Though examples of pitchers with this degree of control over their BABIP are rare, there are instances of hurlers with some control over BABIP.

Therefore, this signing could be a well calculated move by the Red Sox, as they may have found an inefficiency in the free agent market -- signing pitchers who do not fit the sabermetric stereotype of a successful pitcher. It’s difficult to say whether or not Wheeler will be able to repeat his success, but for $3 million it may be worth the risk -- especially since Wheeler is a worthy reliever with or without the BABIP boost.

Aside from BABIP, however, Wheeler does have a checklist of to-do items to fix before 2011 kicks off. In particular, he will have to adjust his approach on the mound and throw more strikes.

Wheeler has always been a command specialist, throwing nearly 55 percent of his pitchers inside the zone in his career. That changed in 2010, however, as that rate dropped to just 45.5 percent.

While drops in zone percentage are not always troubling on their own, the fact that Wheeler did not see an accompanying increase in O-Swing percentage is cause for concern. Oftentimes, pitchers will respond to hitters swinging outside of the zone by throwing more chase pitches. This does not seem to be the case with Wheeler, however, as his O-Swing was largely unchanged from 2009.

Though Wheeler remains a very talented pitcher, these rates bear watching.

Red Sox Fans Are Enjoying the Christmas Season

Just a little something different for the weekend before Christmas. Santa came early in New England!