2011 Projections: Dustin Pedroia

June 19, 2010 - Boston, MA, United States - epa02212122 Los Angeles Dodgers Jamey Carroll (R) steals second base as Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia applies a late tag in the fifth inning at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, 19 June 2010.

Dustin Pedroia 2011 projection:

AB AVG OBP SLG OPS HR R RBI SB

644 .300 .373 .477 .850 15 112 76 21

Pedroia was on his way to another fine season when a broken foot cut things short. In only 75 games, Pedroia hit 12 home runs and stole nine bases. His season line of .288/.367/.493 should improve given full health, which looks to be the case heading into the new year.

As you can see from the projection, I’m not concerned at all about Pedroia’s AVG and OBP. He continued to show great line drive skills in 2010 (22.2 percent line-drive rate) and draw walk in over 10 percent of his plate appearances. The biggest question will be the sustainability of his home run rate. His 25.2 AB/HR rate in 2010 was the highest of his career, as was his 11.4 percent HR/FB rate. Then again, both of these stats have been far from consistent, jumping up and down from year-to-year. Most of his home run damage last season came in April, where he hit six homers and had a HR/FB rate of 18.8 percent. That HR/FB rate was the highest of his career for a single month. Given the spike in AB/HR and HR/FB rates, I am projecting a regression in home run rate in 2011.

The projection for 21 stolen bases is based on early reports that Pedroia’s foot should be 100 percent by spring training. Heck, he’s healthy enough to sprint through an airport, so running 90 feet shouldn’t be too much of an issue. As inconsistent as his home run rates have been, his stolen base totals have been extremely consistent.

All-in-all, Pedroia is a pretty safe player to project. He takes consistent skills to the plate and works insanely hard to get everything he can out of his talent. It’ll be exciting to see what type of runs scored numbers he can put up hitting in front of the superstar additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in 2011.

I do annual projections for all teams at fantasybaseball365.com

Categories: Boston Red Sox Dustin Pedroia

Charlie first started writing about baseball back in 2008 when he opened Fantasy Baseball 365. Since graduating college with a degree in English, he has spent time coaching baseball as well as working in several minor league front offices. He also writes for The Outside Corner and contributes to Project Prospect and ESPN's Sweet Spot. Writer from August 3, 2010 - May 6, 2012

3 Responses to “2011 Projections: Dustin Pedroia” Subscribe

  1. Mr Punch December 21, 2010 at 6:07 AM #

    Pedroia's historical HR rate is a little higher than it looks, in any case. He lost two HRs in '08 before replay was instituted.

  2. Gerry December 21, 2010 at 12:44 PM #

    I think you nailed it, and may be conservative in some areas. Five personal elements or challenges may lead to higher HR & SB #'s for the highly motivated PD.

    1. PD has verbalized wanting to be a 20-20 hitter, so bet on him going for the fences (doesn't he always?) until he's beyond 20HR.

    2. Batting between Ells & CC, probably, means he's flanked by two super base stealer-set up guys who will pressure pitchers & catchers. PD will want to maintain that pressure, so 21SB may be a bit conservative in that situation.

    3. He is a buddy of Crawford and will be hitting in front of him. CC's HR #'s have increased annually to 19 last season. You can bet he, at Fenway, wants to exceed 20HR; and he has spoken of coming to Fenway to enhance his power #'s. Expect some friendly competition to reach 20HR first. As Ells is also a buddy of CC & PD, this could become a healthy 3-way competition. CC may be good for the Sox in more ways than his 5 tools.

    4. Enhancing this competition, PD (and Ells) are coming off major work in rehab and ASI, so we can expect them to be in incredible shape, intensely motivated, and ready to roll. Both will have the physical endurance to reach these goals.

    5. PD's place as top AL 2b took a big hit when Cano finally emerged. Expect him to compete for the MVP, SS, GG.

  3. Josh O. December 22, 2010 at 10:42 AM #

    Laser Show!