Despite rumors that Marco Scutaro was on the trading block this offseason, he was recently endorsed as the Red Sox starter at shortstop. While the 35-year-old Scutaro did a fine job in his first season with the Sox, 27-year-old Jed Lowrie came on strong late in 2010 and represents a younger, higher upside play that Scutaro.
Given the already stacked Red Sox lineup, my feeling is that the better defensive option should get the nod at short.
The fielding stat Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is currently viewed as the best defensive metric we have. However, it is certainly not without it’s flaws and criticisms. Some of the criticism of UZR circles around sample size, which we don’t have in the case of Jed Lowrie. However, Scutaro has 2418.2 innings played at shortstop in the last two years. Scutaro posted a -0.9 UZR in 2009 while with the Blue Jays and a -2.9 UZR with the Sox last season. In his limited action at short (176.2 innings) Lowrie posted a -1.8 UZR last season.
Of course, we can always look at the god ole fielding percentage, just for fun. Scutaro had a .965 FP in 2010 and Lowrie a .986 FP.
Then there is the Fans Scouting Report, put together each year by Tango Tiger.
According to the Fans Scouting Report, Scutaro has the advantage when it comes to hands and release, but Lowrie has the edge in all other categories, especially when it comes to arm strength, arm accuracy and speed.
I think it is fairly clear that neither Scutaro or Lowrie would be a great option at shortstop. Both may be able to play the position adequately, but neither is likely to be an above average asset defensively.
What about the offensive end?
Marco Scutaro is 35 and clearly in a decline phase. His OBP dropped .046 points from his peak season in 2009 to his first year with the Sox. The .333 OBP he posted in 2010 is much closer to his career average than the .379 OBP he posted in 2009. Scutaro also saw his stolen base total drop from 14 to five and those five stolen bases came in nine attempts, which is a very bad stolen base success rate. According to Bill James’s Speed Score, Scutaro regressed from 4.2 in 2009 to 3 in 2010. On the positive side, Scutaro continued to put the ball in play frequently, posting a very low 11.2 percent strikeout rate and hitting for some gap power with 38 doubles.
We can’t take too much from Jed Lowrie’s 2010 major league line, since his sample size of only 197 plate appearances is too small. For instance, if Lowrie continues to post a fly ball rate of over 50 percent and a line drive rate of only 16 percent as he did in 2010, he is unlikely to see much success hitting for AVG. However, to expecting a drastic change in ground ball to fly ball rate might be unwarranted. According to FirstInning.com, Lowrie continued to post lower ground ball rates at the upper levels of the minor leagues. Then again, those numbers are sort of all over the place, literally, as he has done a lot of moving around since 2008.
I think there is at least one thing we can safely assume about Lowire offensively. He has a good eye at the plate and should draw plenty of walks. He has also shown plenty of gap power all along the way, including 14 doubles and nine home runs in 171 at-bats with the Sox last season. Bill James projects 38 doubles and 17 home runs in 482 at-bats, which I think is a bit optimistic, in terms of the home runs at least.
There seems to be enough data to support that Lowrie could out-hit Scutaro if both had equal playing time.
What is our conclusion?
Sox management sees Scutaro as the steady veteran who they have committed $5M to for 2011. However, one has to believe they want to get Lowrie into the action at some point. Lowrie represents a younger, faster defensive option and could end up being more of an offensive asset as well. My guess is that, while Scutaro starts the season as the starting shortstop, it is very possible that Lowrie ends the year as the starter.
No matter who gets the majority of playing time at shortstop in 2011, their time on the job might be limited anyway. Jose Iglesias, a superior defender, is ready defensively and should reach the majors as soon as his bat gains a little more polish. There is certainly a scenario in which he, not Scutaro or Lowrie, mans shortstop by the end of the 2011 season.
What are your scouting reports for Scutaro and Lowrie? Who do you want to see at shortstop?