Here is the best way to sum up the Red Sox 2011 approach to finding a left-handed option in the bullpen:
We certainly like the non-roster options that we have from the left side with Rich Hill, Andrew Miller and Randy Williams,” the GM noted. “We’re certainly comfortable coming to spring training and looking more closely at that group. There are still some guys out there that we’re talking to. But I think the biggest thing is that we’ve added a lot of depth, a lot of experience, power arms and strike-throwers to our pen. Last year was a struggle all season for us to cobble it together and to give Tito some quality options. We feel like even if we broke camp today we have an abundance of options and different looks with guys who can go through the heart of a team’s order and get to Pap.”
Don’t think its just lip service either.
When it came to spending money for late innings pitchers, the Red Sox used their cash on two dominant right-handers (Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler). The only money spent on a lefty was the re-signing of Hideki Okajima to a one year deal, despite looking like a shell of his former self.
Theo’s approach this year is see what sticks from a handful of players and he doesn’t seem too worried.
Plus, how could you not like the concept of power arms and strike-throwers? It’s so basic but sometimes you see organizations get away from it.
This Red Sox team is so well-constructed on paper this year that we are relgated to trivial concerns and trumped up worries.
That the question marks we investigate revolve around Spring Training invitees, journeymen pitchers and prospect busts speaks volumes to the state of the roster.
Andrew Miller and Rich Hill are the two guys everyone wants to do well. They are the former high draft pick-prospects you get to hope reach their potential under Red Sox tutelage. Then they blossom into mega-stars so you can brag about it.
If either Hill or Miller live up to their potential (even for just 30 innings) you have yourself a breakout performer and a heap of praise for Theo and crew. Miller has ties to the Red Sox already by being Daniel Bard’s teammate at UNC, but it doesn’t end there.
Miller went to Buchholz High School and won the Roger Clemens Award winner as the nation’s top collegiate pitcher. Interesting Red Sox name associations. Maybe the stars are aligning for this kid.
And how about Randy Williams? (Who is Randy Williams?) He’s a wild-style pitcher in the Charlie Sheen-mold who strikes out a ton of guys and walks a bunch more while occasionally getting hammered by the long ball.
Williams’ entire issue is centered around whether or not he can control himself. Even just a shade better control makes him playable. His K/9 flashed a 11.2 in 2009, but the BB/9 was over 6.0.
Despite the crazy ratios, his command was still nearly 2.0. Telling us right away that a tiny uptick in control with sustained K/9’s over 11.0 and WOW. You get an electric bullpen arm that people in Boston will love.
Right now there isn’t a clear-cut favorite to win that lefty gig out of the ‘pen. I’m hearing some of you flirt with the idea of using Felix Doubront, but you need to get over that idea. Doubront is the best pitching prospect in the organization and will be in a rotation by the end of the year — either in Boston or elsewhere.
You might see a few appearances from Doubront in relief, but let’s go ahead and count him out of the lefty-specialist role.
The Red Sox are using a broad brush-stroke philosophy of compiling projectable left-handed pitchers with minor league contracts in an effort to unearth a LOOGY. Will it work out?
I bet it does.
Maybe Theo is just throwing darts at the wall, but he’s certainly not doing it blindly. Every single left-hander signed or acquired has upside that could translate to a 35-40 inning specialist.
We all understand the volatility of a relief pitcher and the risk involved in paying a premium for their services. This year’s free agent market was limited in terms of LHP options (and in value).
Scott Downs was the best lefty available and ended up signing a three-year deal that pays him $5 million per year to play for the Angels. (the same Angels who just took on Vernon Wells’ albatross of a contract)
$5 million is a lot to pay for 34 year-old reliever. Pass.
Arthur Rhodes (TEX) was also out there for the taking but the Sox stayed away from the 41-year old. Rhodes might be on the wrong side of 40, but he does one thing and does it well – destroys other lefties. Rhodes was listed as a Type-A free agent but the Cincinnati Reds did not offer him arbitration so Boston could have been in on him without losing picks.
But, on the other hand, you have to wonder how he’ll fair in the AL after pitching in the National East and Central the last three seasons.
Right now, the only left-handed reliever on the roster is Hideki Okajima. The Red Sox went ahead and re-signed him after he struggled in 2010. His command and K/9 are both on a three year slide giving the chance for a return to 2008 levels very unlikely.
Back on December 16th, 2010, Theo grabbed a bunch of left-handed projects and signed them to minor league deals. This list included Lenny DiNardo, Williams, Miller and Hill. All four of those guys will be in contention to play a LOOGY role (if not more) in 2011.
Here are some names of the last 8 years that have been brought in as bullpen projects. Some have worked, while others remind us why they were maybe on minor league contracts.
- Joel Pinero
Matt Mantei
Chad Fox
Billy Traber
Tim Bausher
John Halama
Rudy Seanez (technically while Theo was on sabbatical)
Hideki Okajima
Brandon Donnelly
J.C. Romero
Runelvys Hernandez
Scott Atchison
Marcus McBeth
Hunter Jones
Robert Manuel
Fabio Castro
Boof Bonser
Brandon Duckworth
Big named bad deals:
Ramiro Mendoza (two year deal, Yankee embed)
Scott Sauerbeck (did nothing in Boston, gave up Freddy Sanchez to get him*)
Eric Gagne (steroid bum)
You can see the reliever game is hit and miss.
The last player I would turn my attention to is 34-year old reliever Dennys Reyes. He’s another longshot project like Miller, Hill and Williams. Except Reyes has been dominant over a full season (45+ IP) on two separate occasions at the Major League leven (’06,’08) Despite a waning skill-profile, he still possesses enough that a final flash of brilliance should not be dismissed.
Plus he’ll remind people of Rich Garces.
Spring training will make the lefty-specialist storyline play out and we’ll know what the reality is come April. But if I had to guess today who the LHP will be (in addition Oki) I would say Randy Williams will be the man. Williams has a history of pitching well in Spring Training and in the early parts of the season.
Great job by the team in loading up on arms. There are enough options here that it’s reasonable to expect one to breakout and help take down the likes of Robinson Cano, Mark Teixiera or Curtis Granderson. Outside of New York the division does not have a lot of left-handed threats and the Sox should come out well in this.
Categories: 2004 World Series Andrew Miller Boston Red Sox Eric Gagne Rich Hill Terry Francona Theo Epstein
Lip service is a good way to put it. The list of stiffs listed above shows what Theo does.The pen is an after thought.He does not place enough value on relievers and is not willing to allocate enough funds for the better one's.Any three of Downs,Balfour, Saito, Benoit and Feliciano would have been a better haul then what he brought in.If Rivera was really attainable, they should have handeed him a blank check. We all know they have the money.With a shaky starting five,due to terribble investment's in Beckert Lackey and Dice K,they needed to really re-inforce that pen.The only two worth mentioning are Hill and Reyes.Wheeler was a fair signing, but Jenks is an expensive gamble. Even Elmer Dessens would have been a good signing. He signed with SF today.Downs,pitching in the AL East would have been ideal,even at 5 million a year. Facing the Yankees will be a nightmare. At this point,Wakefield should be released. I would hate to see Reyes, Hill or even Okie lost because Tim is in the way.If they go with six relievers,they should be Papelbon,Bard, Jenks,Wheeler,Hill and Reyes.Release Aitchison,then resign him for Pawtucket. Same with Okie,to have a couple of vets down there if needed.Theo got burned with Mendoza,but that was a logical signing at the time. Who knew he was out of gas.He got burned by Gagne, but he was throwing bullets prior to the trade.Unless you have four quality starting pitchers, you better stock that pen with the best talent availble.Theo did not.I am not "comfortable" with most of what he brought in and wouldn't be "happy" to start the season today pulling fish out of a barrel.The pen should not be an annual crapshoot.
You are assuming that Jenks, Paps, Wake, Atch and Oki are all done. Unlikely, but look what happened to the generally reliable RamRam, MDC, Oki, Beckett, Lackey last year. if they are all done, it wouldn't matter if Theo signed Downs (for 3/$15M) over Jenks or Benoit over Wheeler, we're screwed no matter what. You may be right and we will have the same queasy stomach each time Tito goes to the Pen or, worse, each time he leaves a struggling starter in because he's afraid to go to the Pen.
Even so, I would be equally queasy if Theo had given long term big $$ deals to guys who may or may not repeat good seasons to fill the front end of the Pen. Maybe he should have, but I can only think it's good we didn't have Gagne, Mendoza or even Wagner for 3 years.
The other side of that coin is that:
1. Lester, Buchholz, Lackey should continue to pitch deep into games, handing the ball to Wheeler, Bard, Jenks, Paps who are, in fact, better than most alternatives.
2. if Beckett has any sort of rebound, which is likely, he joins Lester, Buch, Lackey in going deep into games, again minimizing the need for front end relievers.
3. the Sox long lineup of above average hitters and base runners will usually provide enough runs that close games in which front end relievers decide the outcome will not be common. This lineup should produce more offense than 2010, which was potent.
4. Wake, Atch, Oki have proven their value in the ALE and shouldn't be sold short. For relievers it's all about what they are capable of producing now, and we won't know until ST is over. All of them could fade, but having some great outings even during an inconsistent 2010, each of them could deliver as well as they have in the past. Both fears and projections on Feb 9 are just guesswork.
5. Hill, Reyes, Miller, Acevas, Williams are each potentially valuable relievers. Along with Albers, DiNardo & Fox, we will find out just how valuable they are before 4/1. Where is the harm in that? If just one has a good year and one of Downs/Benoit/Balfour etc. has a bad year, and both scenarios are equally probable, then Theo is a genius.
6. Doubront and several other prospects will be MLB ready in just a few months. If every one of the above guys fold (extremely unlikely), the backups are in RI.
7. There will be plenty of room to maneuver before the trade deadline.
The only downside I can see with Theo's Bullpen strategy is that he … no, I can't really see a downside. And that's a good thing.
Since you posted this, things have gotten a little better with the additions of Aceves and Reyes. At this point,they are welcome additions,but to address your question four of the five pitchers you mentioned are in long decline and the 5th should have retired 5 years ago.That is a scary trend when we have such a good club otherwise. Aithison is a leaque average pither. The thing you should not feel queasy about is what the payroll will be.It's not your money.These are billionares, They owe us the finest product they can put on that field with the money they make at the gate.
Elmer Dessens? Really? What exactly does his minor league deal make you envious of while you simultaneously dump on the rest of the team?
I don't follow any of your logic. Go pay for the best talent but you'll probably get burned like Sauerbeck, Mendoza and Gagne. But don't rely on low-investment options because they are stiffs. Jenks is bad, Wheeler is bad, the rotation is bad and last week you established that Francona is bad and the Red Sox should platoon everyone at all times because the data suggest as much.
Also how can you say they "should go with Hill and Reyes?" What exactly have you seen from Hill or Reyes to suggest the job should be theirs?
The Giant thought well enough of Dessens and his 2.20 ERA to sign him to a minor league contract.The list in the above article show's how well low investment options work. You get what you pay for.You haven't figured this out yet?Did you check Jenks declining numbers since 2008? I said Wheeler was OK.Yes I believe in platooning with some players because stats do not lie.These guys are professionals and should understand it.You always put the team ahead of yourself.
So how exactly do we laud the Giants signing Dessens but then at the same time shred up the low investigate pitchers the Red Sox are bringing to camp? I'm still not seeing the distinction here?
Dessens is smoke and mirrors anyway. 40 year old with a 3.1 K/9 and below average control. He also had one of the highest strand rates I've ever seen (85%) I'm not exactly sure how this is supposed to be a better minor league signing than Dinardo, Miller, or Randy Williams.
Also, I am going to just assume (fairly or not) that you only look at surface stats. Jenks is an extreme ground baller with more than 10 Ks per nine. His xERA is sub 3.00 so I think you are off base here. Expect a nice bounce back from him.
Wheeler is one of the best ROOGYs in the game. The bullpen is nice and tight and they need one of about 11 LHPs to pan out.
I applaude the Giants for addng another good piece to an already strong pen.You won't find many WS winners without one.Dessens had a 2.20 ERA,lower then any pitcher Theo signed.Better yet,he did it last season.The pitchers that the author(wink)listed in a very interesting article, are the has been's and never were's of the game.You won't win much gambling on these pitchers, but this is the way Theo does things.He improved the pen some what, but it should have been alot better with what was on the open market.
I think you're not understanding the whole concept of relief pitching being a volatile crapshoot.
Also, that putting spaces after periods make your arguments easier to read.
Thanks for the tip on spaces. Not every relief pitcher will evaporate after one good season. Two examples. Saito and Downs. Saito has a career record of 17-13 ERA 2.19. He has never had a bad season. That's 6 years running with his highest ERA being 2.83. Downs. His 4 year record with the Jays is 20-18 ERA 3.13. All accomplished in the AL East. Last year his ERA was 2.64. Both of these pitchers would have been better signings for the Red Sox. What is it that I am not getting?