As many of you probably remember, soon after the Red Sox finalized the Adrian Gonzalez trade with the Padres, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the two sides had secretly come to terms on a seven year contract extension worth $154M. According to sources, both parties agreed to wait until after Opening Day to announce the deal in order to avoid paying the competitive balance tax. While the report was vehemently disputed by both Adrian Gonzalez and key members of Red Sox leadership, the rumors persisted.
This past Tuesday, deep within column on Albert Pujols trade possibilities, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports mentioned that a few sources had confirmed Nightengale’s original report. The only difference was the amount of money involved in the deal.
“Then there are the Red Sox. Sources say they are set to sign Gonzalez to a seven-year, $164 million extension, but will wait until after Opening Day to announce the deal, enabling them to save on the luxury tax.”
Not surprisingly, Theo Epstein denied the rumors that the Red Sox were “set to sign” Gonzalez to a contract. While he didn’t specifically address Rosenthal’s report, he did indicate there was “mutual good faith” between the two parties that would hopefully allow for smooth negotiations. With Adrian Gonzalez having already reported to Spring Training, there’s a good chance negotiations will ramp up the next couple of weeks, potentially leading to an agreement.
That brings us to an interesting question. Will Adrian Gonzalez really worth $164 over seven years? If not, how much will he be worth? Before you fly off the handle and answer with a resounding “YES,” there are a few things we need to consider before making that determination.
First, we need to look at the components that determine a player’s value. For a hitter, there are five primary components: batting, defense, position, durability, and base running. We’ll take a look at how Gonzalez fairs in each category.
Batting – I think most of us can agree this one is a no brainer. A-Gon is an incredibly gifted offensive player whose raw offensive numbers were hindered by playing half of his games in one of the most unfriendly hitting environments in recent memory. As a left-handed hitter who sprays the ball to all fields, Fenway Park appears to be tailored to his abilities. Whether he’s peppering the Green Monster in left, roping a single to straight away center, or pulling a home run down the line to right, Gonzalez appears to be a good bet to put up 80 extra base hits with a slugging percentage closer to .575 than .500.
If there’s one area of concern I have with Gonzalez, it’s his walk rate. Over his last two seasons in San Diego, Gonzalez was surrounded by the likes of Chase Headley, Tony Gwynn Jr., David Eckstein, and Wil Venable. Not exactly Murderer’s Row, if you know what I mean. When given the option, teams chose to pitch around Gonzalez in order to face his lighter hitting teammates. As a result, Gonzalez saw a bump in the number of walks he received. How much did he owe his increased walk rate (BB%) to intentional walks? Let’s take a look.
| Year | uIBB* | IBB | BB% | uIBB% |
| 2006 | 43 | 9 | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| 2007 | 56 | 9 | 9.0% | 7.8% |
| 2008 | 56 | 18 | 10.6% | 8.0% |
| 2009 | 97 | 22 | 17.5% | 14.2% |
| 2010 | 58 | 35 | 13.4% | 8.4% |
*uIBB = unintentional walk; IBB = intentional walk
With the exception of his outlier 2009 season, A-Gon is equally as proficient at drawing walks as he was five years ago. His increased walk rate is almost entirely a function of being a strong hitter in a week line-up. Now that Gonzalez has been traded to the Red Sox, he will not only be surrounded quality hitters like Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford, and Dustin Pedroia, but also likely receive fewer intentional walks. Unless there’s a corresponding increase in either his batting average or unintentional walk rate, his on-base percentage will likely decrease as a result.
Based on his 2008-2010 performance, I’m projecting Gonzalez to produce around 40 (+/- 2) runs in offensive value in 2011.
Defense – For a first baseman, Gonzalez has soft hands; a strong, accurate arm; and above average range. Gonzalez’s excellent footwork around the bag and above average lateral movement allow him to get to balls many first baseman can’t field. Statistically, Total Zone is huge fan of Gonzalez’s work, while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) are neutral towards his defensive prowess.
All around, his defensive performance is pretty solid. Based on his 2008-2010 performance, I’m projecting Gonzalez to provide +2 runs of defensive value in 2011.
Position – Gonzalez’s role as a first baseman hinders his value much more than it helps. The standard positional value for someone who plays the maximum 1458 innings at first base is -12.5 runs.* While it’s unlikely Gonzalez plays the maximum number of innings, his history of durability (more on that in a moment) makes him a likely candidate to receive nearly the full -12.5 run positional value in 2011.
* Positional values per Fangraphs are as follows: catcher +12.5 runs; shortstop +7.5; second base, third base, and center field +2.5; left field and right field -7.5; first base -12.5 runs; designated hitter -17.5 runs.
Durability – Over the last five seasons, Adrian Gonzalez has been one of the most durable players in the game. Aside from a shoulder injury that required surgery this past fall, Gonzalez has remained injury free. While it remains to be seen how his shoulder injury will manifest itself in years ahead, most expect him to make a full recovery with minimal setbacks. Gonzalez, 28, is still a spring chicken, so he’s a pretty safe bet to make 155-160 starts a season for the next three or four years. Once he hits 30, all bets are off as most players start getting hit with nagging injuries like muscle strains that take them out of the lineup for a couple of games at a time, a few times a year.
Base Running – If there’s one weakness in A-Gon’s game, its base running. To put it kindly, Gonzalez has the foot speed of Terry Francona. In other words, he’s a little faster than Mike Lowell, but not much. As a result, he rarely attempts a stolen base (only three attempts in his career), and has an unfortunate tendency to get thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double, or a double into a triple.
According Baseball Prospectus’s base running metric called Equivalent Base Runs (EqBRR), Gonzalez has been one of the worst base runners in the game, registering -7.5 runs (-2.5 runs per season) in value over the last three seasons. While Gonzalez’s -2.5 run per season average is negligible in the grand scheme of things, it only goes to show his deficiencies in this aspect of the game. Most major league baseball players produce an EqBRR within a range of +/- 1.0 run.*
* For reference, out of the 33 qualifying Red Sox base runners in 2010, 23 of them finished within the +/-1.0 run range.
The next thing we need to determine is Gonzalez’s true talent level in terms of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). After reviewing his performance data from the last three seasons (and adjusting his stats to account for his shoulder injury in 2010), I’ve projected his true talent level to be around 5.5 WAR for 2011. This gives us a good baseline from which to start.
Gonzalez has been remarkably productive and durable throughout his career, which definitely plays in his favor going forward. Despite the fact he’s both young and still within his prime, we can’t assume he’s going to continue to produce at this level indefinitely. Furthermore, at some point he’ll likely fall prey to the nagging injuries (pulled hamstring, sore back, etc.) that plague most players once they cross into their 30s. As a result, he’ll be forced to take additional time off, which in turn, will cause his value to decline.
If we use the standard half win decrease per season aging curve, we can expect Gonzalez to produce approximately 28.0 wins above the replacement level over the next seven seasons. Assuming a steady 5% increase in salary inflation over the next seven years, the value of those wins would be worth approximately $159M.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/Win | Value |
| 2011 | 29 | 5.5 | $5.00M | $27.5M |
| 2012 | 30 | 5.0 | $5.25M | $26.3M |
| 2013 | 31 | 4.5 | $5.51M | $24.8M |
| 2014 | 32 | 4.0 | $5.79M | $23.2M |
| 2015 | 33 | 3.5 | $6.08M | $21.2M |
| 2016 | 34 | 3.0 | $6.38M | $19.1M |
| 2017 | 35 | 2.5 | $6.70M | $16.8M |
| Totals | 28.0 | $158.9M | ||
Barring major injury or an unexpected decline in performance, Gonzalez is a solid bet to be worthy of a seven year contract extension valued at $154-164M. If I were the Red Sox, I’d make it a priority to ensure he was locked up as soon as possible–if they haven’t already. With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder both due to become free agents next winter, Gonzalez’s salary demands are a good bet to increase if he joins them in free agency. Without a corresponding increase in his performance baseline (i.e. WAR), Gonzalez will likely price himself out of the Red Sox’s comfort zone. If this happens, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run at Albert Pujols. While that might be a nice thought for some, Pujols isn’t likely to leave St. Louis, and should be considered nothing more than a distant Plan B (with Fielder being an emergency Plan C). Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that point.