photo source: BostonHerald.com
Overreactions here we come! Who is hot and who is not to start the 2011 Grapefruit League action?
This is March and the time of early-season, outlier performances. And that presents great opportunity to over-analyze small sample sizes. Theo Epstein says he doesn’t do snapshot judgments, but that’s exactly what we have here. Tiny slices of circumstantial data to sit and wonder about.
Sometimes it proves prophetic. But most often — it’s merely noise.
HOT
Mike Cameron – Remember him? The guy who would play CF while Jacoby Ellsbury manned LF. After battling injuries and missing a lot of the 2010 season, Cameron is off to a fast-start in Florida, hitting .455 through his first 11 ABs. Boston would like to see some consistency and health from the 38-year old, but don’t think anyone is counting on it.
Josh Reddick – Goggles or no goggles, this kid can hit once he gets settled in. Reddick showed that again Sunday when he blasted a 2-run HR to tie the game against the New York Mets. Reddick could see an upwards of 100 ABs depending on the health of Ellsbury and JD Drew. He remains a quiet, but intriguing power/speed combination prospect that is very easy to sleep on.
This spring, Reddick is slugging .714, with two home runs, six RBI and a .313 batting average.
Clay Buchholz – Last season’s breakout pitcher, Buchholz is expected to come back to Earth a little in 2011. All the peripherals say that he will, but the anti-stats say no way!
Through his first 5 IP, he has given up just one hit and punched out three batters. Buchholz has yet to give up a run.
Alfredo Aceves – Former Yankees castoff, Aceves is trying to keep strides with Buchholz in the ERA department. Through 5 IP, Aceves has not given up a run and has only walked one batter.
Aceves is a guy who usually has moderate control and moderate dominance when healthy. It will be interesting to see if the team finds a role for him as a possible swingman.
Oscar Tejada – HERE is a guy you should keep in your back pocket if you are a Red Sox fan. Tejada so far in spring has torn the cover off the ball to the tune
SoxProspects.com compares him to Brandon Phillips.
NOT
Daisuke Matsuzaka – I am beyond tired of Dice-K but I’m not sure that they will ever pull him from the rotation because he’s a lot better than I give him credit for. So far in 2011 Grapefruit League action, Matsuzaka has given up six earned runs and two HRs in 5 IP. He’s also thrown in three walks and seven hits to boot.
Daniel Bard – The Red Sox’ high-leverage Ace has struggled this Spring with a 21.60 ERA and three walks in 1.2 IP. Bard’s command is still rusty after two appearances.
Lars Anderson – The once highly-touted, power-hitting first baseman has had the bloom fall off the rose. No longer is he spoken of as a gem in the system. So far this spring, Anderson has hit just .125 through 16 ABs. He has just two hits, but one of them is a home run.
Hideki Okajima – Oki’s grasp on a roster spot is pretty slim with the large pile of LHP relievers the team brought to camp. Okajima has not responded well enough to nail down a role. Despite striking out four guys, he has also allowed earned runs in just 3 IP.
Is this it for him?
Ryan Kalish – The next-generation ‘DirtDog’, Kalish has already established that he can play in the Big Leagues. He has yet to get going in Fort Myers though, hitting just .133 in 15 ABs — with zero extra base hits.
Kalish will start the 2011 season in Pawtucket.
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It’s still early enough that these performances can be chalked up to variance. For gamblers, betting on a baseball spread on spring training numbers would be ridiculous. But every once in awhile they are foretelling to a player’s season. It’s hard to pinpoint any one player as a breakout or bust, but I do think that the Red Sox should find a role for Aceves.
It just might require the roster spot of someone like Tim Wakefield and I’m not sure the team is willing to do that. Wakefield is said to have an unspoken deal which will allow him to pitch until legal retirement age.
And although the drum has beaten dozens of times, the 2011 shortstop position development is going to be incredibly interesting.
Might we see the storybook emergence of Jose Iglesias?
