Red Sox Starters: Are There Any 20-Game Winners Lurking?

In today’s world, wins are an overrated thing. It used to be a measuring stick of a pitcher’s worth and had been generally-accepted for the last 100 years by fans and experts.

But as we expand our breadth of knowledge with advanced metrics, we have come to realize that accumulating wins are a matter of circumstance and require assistance from forces outside of the pitcher’s control. You can be great, but the wins may never come.

Not exactly a news flash to anyone.

The mainstream media still by and largely favor wins. We usually see it in Cy Young voting, in box scores and on game broadcasts. Wins might be contextual, but people still care about them.

Thankfully in 2010, Felix Hernandez did not fall victim to ‘wins’ when the Cy Young Award was handed out in the American League. Hernandez received just 3.75 runs per game from his offense as support across his 34 starts, but still won the award. It was clear to anyone with eyes that he was the best pitcher in the junior circuit.

Not a 20-game winner, but still the best.

A pitcher cannot control his manager’s tendencies, the bullpen’s effectiveness or his team’s defense. He could pitch a relatively clean six innings, leave with a lead and watch from the dugout as the game slips from the bullpen’s grasp.

If you want to win 20 games you’ll need a few things to go your way. First, you are going to need to be healthy enough to start the number of games (30 starts minimum) and throw the number of innings needed to even give yourself the chance.

Health is the component skill a pitcher needs to demonstrate in order to be in the discussion of 20-win seasons. Run support, ERA, K/9’s and strand rates could all support the peripherals of a 20-win season, but unless the guy is a workhorse, you can forget it.

You need to throw at minimum, 200 innings. Guys who throw 175 IP don’t win 20 games — no matter how good they are.

In the last 10 years, only one Major League starter won 20 games pitching less than 200 innings. It happened just once by Pedro Martinez in 2002. He threw 199 innings.

There are no starters in the last decade that started less than 30 games and went on to win 20 games. None.

You’ll need to throw at least 200 IP and start at least 30 games. Plain and simple (and that’s barely making the cut).

In 2007, Josh Beckett won 20 games for the Red Sox and he did it in just 30 starts. He is one of two pitchers who did it in just 30 starts. The other was Pedro Martinez (again) – this time in 2002.

Most 20+ win pitchers start 33 games. You need to really be on it every 5th day to even sniff a chance at 20 wins.

But just showing up to work every day isn’t enough. You are going to also need run support. The pitchers who won 20 games played on teams that game them on average 7 runs scored per nine innings. Getting 7 runs per game is a lofty expectation.

Last year, the Yankees Phil Hughes won 18 games in 176 IP thanks to the 9.0 runs scored per game by the Yankees offense in Hughes’ starts. If Hughes can get to 200 IP in 2011, he could easily amass 22 or more wins with that kind of elite run support.

Want to win 20 games? There are some basic criteria that a pitcher will need to make the mark:

Starts – 33.5
IP – 230+
ERA – 3.05
Command (K/BB) – Over 4.0
Runs Support Differential (Run Support Average – Earned Run Average) – Over 4.00

In 2007, Beckett had an ERA of 3.27, en route to a 20-7 record. The Red Sox run scored average was 8.34 in Beckett’s starts. This was a run support differential of 5.07 – plenty enough to hit the mark. Beckett also had a K/BB ratio of 4.9 that year and it just barely tilted him into the 20-win territory.

Winning 20 games is hard.

There have been some starting pitchers that have achieved the mark despite a relative lack of run support, but their command was impeccable and they usually logged over 240 IP.

In essence you need elite performances in health, reliability, command an run differential. It’s possible to get there without it, but it’s unlikely you’ll do so.

As for the Red Sox:

Jon Lester is an obvious candidate and John Lackey is a dark horse. In theory, they could both achieve 20 wins this year, but they’ll need a little help from their friends.

As far as the rest of the rotation — don’t count on it. Clay Buchholz is not going to win 20. He may not even win 15 this year because it’s highly doubtful he could carry a 200 IP load on that small frame. Plus, everyone and their mother expects some signifcant regression from him in ’11.

We know Dice-K will be erratic and Beckett is a complete wildcard, but Lester and Lackey could easily hit the 20-win mark with a few favorable upticks in support and command.

Lackey is a horse that labored in 2010. We all know that. He struggled with the Rays and Jays, but faired well against the Yankees and his old stomping grounds, the AL West. Despite the slow start, Lackey began to find a groove later in 2010.

If he is involved in 30+ starts and 220 IP in2011, then he will stand a fair chance to accumulate 20 wins even if he pitches averagely. He’ll just need to receive similar run support from the offense as he did in 2010. (Fair to assume given the team’s upgrades at the plate.)

The Red Sox scored over 7 runs per game last year for Lackey, but his 4.40 ERA was way too high to touch 20 wins. In the last ten years, only Andy Pettitte has posted 20 wins with ERA over 4.00 (’02 – 4.02 ERA).

<img style="padding:0;margin:0;border:none;" width="215" height="182" src="http://img.wylio.com/flickr/215/3876291317" title="Andy Pettitte – photo by: Keith Allison, Source: Flickr, found with Wylio.com” alt=”Andy Pettitte” />photo © 2009 Keith Allison | <a style="padding:0;margin:0;color:#aaa; text-decoration:underline;" title="get more information about the photo 'Andy Pettitte‘” target=”_blank” href=”http://www.flickr.com/photos/27003603@N00/3876291317″>more info (via: Wylio)<br In the second half of 2011, Lackey posted a xERA of 3.54 while his actual ERA was 4.30. If Lackey can make the expected ERA come to life in 2011, the Red Sox offense combined with his decent command numbers could push him into the territory expected of most 20-game winners.