Over the past month, we’ve talked a lot about the state of the lineup and pitching staff. We’ve looked at platoon situations and identified advantages; broken down pitching performances using pitch f/x; examined efficient lineup constructions; and debated the potential for big power numbers out of our two speedy (albeit OBP-phobic) outfielders. Despite our wide-reaching efforts, there’s one area we’ve failed to really tackle—defense.
Yes, yes. I know. Defense is not the sexy. It’s not only incredibly subjective, but also impossible to comparatively judge via the eye test. While Defensive metrics exist that allow us to judge defense more objectively, even those have been called into question by certain sects due to concerns regarding the proprietor’s methodology and results that disagree with widely held public opinion. (See Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Torii Hunter) Of course, disagreement with the masses don’t make a metric’s results incorrect. In fact, sometimes those findings expose underlying biases. The bigger problem lies when defensive metrics (like UZR and DRS) disagree with one another on a particular player. The apprehension behind accepting conclusions brought forth by defensive metrics is further exacerbated by the “newness” and “mathematical voodoo” factors. While it will take time for people to get beyond both of these factors, the advent of Field f/x (and it’s eventual public unveiling) will not only make our current metrics obsolete, but also alleviate some of the apprehension behind accepting non-scouting based opinions.
Despite the rise of the “defensive age” (perhaps that’s overstating it) in baseball, few fans, announcers, and writers truly understand the importance of defense. In fact, most still view defense in terms of errors and fielding percentage. Of course, most of us reading this site know better than to simply defense to that level. It’s so much more. Red Sox consultant and baseball expert, Bill James, found defense accounts for approximately 11% of the game. While this might not seem like a significant piece of the game, it’s far more important than most give it credit for being.
Defense, along with pitching, is a key component in run prevention; it can make bad pitcher look good, and a good pitcher look great. Why? A quick defensive player with above average range, soft hands, and a cannon for an arm (let’s call him Elvis Andrus) can turn batted balls into outs (and save additional runs) better than a defensive player who wears cement shoes, has hands made of stone, and has a noodle for an arm (let’s call him Yuniesky Betancourt). While it’d be hard to find a more rational concept than what I just described, it’s amazing how few people are able to grasp it.
While I could easily drone on for another 2000 words lecturing everyone about the importance of defense, I thought it’d be far more productive to analyze the current Red Sox defensive alignment position-by-position. For the purpose of this article, I will being using John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) to analyze each player. Obviously, the sample sizes for these ratings are very small (but all stats are at this point in the season), but it’s still important to gauge our player’s performance. To keep it balanced, I’ll try support those findings with some of my observational/anecdotal opinions. For reasons described in my article last Friday on the difficulty of measuring a catcher’s defensive value, I won’t be breaking that position down today.
First Base – Adrian Gonzalez (3.5 UZR, +1 DRS) – While Kevin Youkilis was/is a tremendous defensive first baseman, A-Gon might be even better. To say he’s been as good (or better than) advertised defensively might be an understatement of mass proportions. He has outstanding footwork around the bag, above average range, and (despite obvious speed deficiencies) defends the bunt well. Through the first month of the season, he leads all major league first baseman in UZR, and is tied for fourth in DRS. Provided he continues on this track, a Fielding Bible Award could very well be in his future.
Second Base – Dustin Pedroia (2.6 UZR, +2 DRS) – If anyone was worried that Pedroia’s range would be affected by the broken foot he suffered last season, his performance in the field this year should have put those concerns to rest. He has above average range, a strong arm for a second baseman, and turns the double play well. At this point in the season, Pedroia places second in UZR (fractionally behind Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick), and is tied for first in DRS with Ben Zobrist.
Third Base – Kevin Youkilis (-0.8 UZR, -2 DRS) – While the early returns on Youkilis’s migration across the diamond haven’t been overly positive, there’s reason to believe his performance could be on the verge of a turnaround. At times this season, it’s seemed like Youkilis had borrowed the cement shoes Mike Lowell wore onto the field in 2009 and 2010. As he’s adjusted to his new surroundings, his range and footwork have improved. His arm is still a little erratic, but that will hopefully right itself over time. Considering his age, he’ll probably never be a top tier defensive third baseman. Still, with his work ethic and surprising agility, he should get to the point where he’s at least league average. To date, Youkilis ranks 14th out of 21 qualifying third baseman in UZR, and tied for eighth in DRS.
Shortstop – Marco Scutaro (1.4 UZR, +1 DRS) – While Scutaro doesn’t have great range at SS, he makes up for it with soft hands, an accurate arm, and an above average ability turning a double play. With the emergence of Jed Lowrie, Scutaro may eventually be moved to a reserve role. If he does, it would be wise for the Red Sox to leverage his versatility by putting him in the utility role currently encumbered by Lowrie. He doesn’t currently qualify to be ranked defensively, but if he did, he’d be tied with Jimmie Rollins for fifth in UZR and tied for seventh in DRS.
Utility Infielder – Jed Lowrie (SS -0.1 UZR, 0 DRS; 3B 0.7 UZR, 0 DRS) – So far this season, Lowrie’s made appearance at all four infield positions with shortstop and third base being the ones he’s received his most playing time. The samples are really too small to make judgments on his performance, but based on anecdotal evidence, he appears better suited to play 2B or 3B. This isn’t to say he couldn’t play SS every day; he certainly could. The problem isn’t his arm; it’s his range. While his range is acceptable now, it’s likely his range will decline (at some point over the next few years) to the point where it’s a no longer acceptable. With 2B and 3B currently encumbered by All-Star/MVP quality players, Lowrie’s best shot at sticking with the team is SS. Provided his performance doesn’t make a turn for the worse (on both sides of the coin), it wouldn’t surprise me to see him “officially” take control of the SS position in the near future.
Left Field – Carl Crawford (-2.1 UZR, 0 DRS) – While Crawford’s first month in a Red Sox uniform has been less than spectacular, there are reasons to believe he’s pulled out of his slump–defensively at least. When the first UZR rankings were released two weeks into the season, Crawford ranked second worst in all of baseball with a -4.1. (Who was worse? Aubrey Huff with a -7.0. Yikes!) A couple of weeks later, he’s cut his negative rating in half, and has (slowly but surely) started to show greater comfort levels dealing with the Green Monster looming in LF. Crawford’s been one of the premier defensive players in baseball since he arrived in the major leagues in 2002, so there’s no reason to believe he’s lost his abilities over night. As time goes on, he’ll learn the contours and nuances of plying LF at Fenway, thus improving his overall performance. He currently ranks 19th out of 26 in UZR, and tied for 13th in DRS.
Center Field – Jacoby Ellsbury (-1.3 UZR, -1 DRS) – While Ellsbury likely isn’t as poor in CF as his controversial -9.7 UZR in 2009 made him appear, but he’s by no means amongst the league’s elite. In fact, calling “league average” is probably pushing it. He tends to get late jumps on balls; takes “banana” routes to fly balls; and has an arm that would make Johnny Damon jealous. While his tremendous speed allows him to make up for some of those deficiencies, it’s not enough to justify the reputation he’s acquired. To date, Ellsbury ranks 21st out of 28 in UZR, and 17th in DRS.
Right Field – J.D. Drew (2.6 UZR, -1 DRS) – I don’t care what anyone says. Drew is one of the most underrated players in baseball. At age-35, he’s still a plus-defender who covers a right field area that’s so expansive, he practically acts as a second centerfielder. He has excellent instincts, top notch range, and a solid arm. Despite only playing 152 innings in the field, Drew ranks fourth in UZR and is tied for 12th in DRS.
Overall, the Red Sox look pretty solid defensively. Based on the most recent defensive metric updates, Boston ranks seventh overall in UZR with a +6.3 rating; fourteenth in DRS with a -3 rating; and twelfth in defensive efficiency rating (DER) with .694. Provided they can avoid injuries to key defensive players, defense should end up being a category of strength for the Red Sox going forward.