The first and supplemental first round of the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft is in the books. Though the Sox had to wait 18 picks until their first, the depth of talent in this year’s draft made for an abundance of potential value. The Sox drafted accordingly, selecting a quartet of high-upside players with their day-one picks.
Round 1/Pick 19: 6’4″, 205 lb, RHP Matt Barnes (Connecticut)
MLB.com:
In another Draft class, Barnes — with his long, lanky frame and potential for a very good three-pitch mix — would put him close to the top of Draft boards. The depth in outstanding pitching in this class knocks Barnes down a touch, but he’s still in line to get taken in the top half of the first round.
Barnes can crank his fastball up to 96 mph and will comfortably sit in the 91-93 mph range. He currently throws two breaking pitches. His curve has the chance to be a plus pitch if he focuses on it, with good rotation. His slider is a below-average pitch, and it might be best if he used just the curve at the next level. His changeup has the chance to be a good option, especially against lefties, but he doesn’t use it that much now. He should have excellent command in the future and his frame might allow him to add some bulk along the way.
He looks and acts like a frontline starter, and that’s exactly what he might be down the line.
My take: If teams were drafting on frame alone, Barnes may have been a top-ten pick. His 6’4″, 205 frame has room to get even stronger, which may lead to a small up-tick in velocity. I really like his smooth mechanics and good arm-action. Given his three-quarters delivery, his already plus fastball could develop even more movement and or sink if he perfects a two-seam grip. The work on his off-speed pitches will be the key to his development, but I see plus-potential in his curve for sure. Based on projection and already smooth mechanics, I really like the value of this pick.
Round 1/Pick 26: 6’1″, 175 lb, C Blake Swilhart (V Sue Cleveland HS, NM)
MLB.com:
On pure ability alone, Swihart very well could have first-round talent. That’s particularly true of his bat. He’s got a great swing from both sides of the plate and can really hit. He should hit for average with above-average power. Think a slightly better version of Colby Rasmus, a hitter who could hit .300 with 20+ homers annually.
It’s unclear where Swihart’s eventual defensive home will be. A catcher in high school, some feel he won’t stay there at the next level as he’s not the biggest guy in the world, though he does have arm strength, and a team may not want the wear and tear of catching to take away from his offensive potential. A move to the infield seems unlikely as Swihart’s lack of speed wouldn’t suit him at, say, second base, so a corner outfield spot may make the most sense, and he should have enough bat for such a spot.
He’s expected to be a very tough sign, with a commitment to the University of Texas, so it might take a team willing to meet his asking price to get him to become a pro this summer.
My take: Apparently the Sox think they have what it takes to sign Swilhart away from the University of Texas. His tough signability is probably what allowed him to drop to the Sox at 26, but his upside with the bat may be worth the money. There’s a lot to like about Swilhart’s swing, as it is simple yet powerful from both sides of the plate. Some may think he’s too small to stick at catcher, but should he sign and get into a organization-based strength and conditioning program, he could certainly add body strength to his already good arm strength. If catcher isn’t the answer, his bat should still play well at a corner outfield spot. If the Sox can get him signed — and I think they can or will at lest try their best — the upside of this pick could pay off big-time down the road.
Round 1A/Pick 36: 6’6″, 190 lb, LHP Henry Owens (Edison HS, CA)
MLB.com:
Big lefties tend to get noticed, and Owens has been on radars for some time now as he’s made the showcase circuit. The 6-foot-6 southpaw gets some Mark Langston comparisons, in terms of his body type, and he might have the arm to match.
The SoCal high school product has a good delivery and arm action that allows him to throw his fastball 90-92 mph, peaking at 94 mph. He keeps it down in the zone and knows how to elevate it when needed. His curve, 69-74 mph, has two tiers to it. The first is a slower, Barry Zito-like breaking ball he throws to get strike one. The second is harder and generates more swings and misses. He also throws a slurvy slider, 75-77 mph, with a wide break. He has an advanced feel for a changeup and while he does try to work it in, he hasn’t needed to use it a lot at this level.
He’s got polish on the mound, with advanced command and control of all his pitches, a package that could be a ticket to a first-round selection.
My take: Owens has the pitching frame that scouts salivate over…and he’s left-handed! While his fastball sits in the low-90’s now, it has a chance to gain velocity as his body fills out. Like Barnes, his delivery is smooth and his arm-action is clean. The fact that he already has a group of effective breaking pitches is definitely a plus. The fact that he gets high grade for his command is an even bigger plus. He’s the type of pitcher that could thrive development-wise in the controlled environment of a minor league system, but like Swilhart, the Sox will have to open the checkbook to get him signed, as he has committed to the University of Miami.
Round 1A/Pick 40: 5’10” , 180 lb, OF Jackie Bradley (South Carolina)
MLB.com:
Bradley, the center fielder for the University of South Carolina, seemed destined to be a no-doubt first-round pick before this season started. But struggles with the bat — he hit just. 259 over 37 games — and a wrist injury that required surgery have thrown his status into question.
He swings a better bat than what he showed this season, having hit well in the tough SEC in the past as well as for Team USA this past summer. Though he’s only 5-foot-10, he packs surprising power into his frame. He’s a rare combination of an outfielder who has the chance to be an above-average defensive center fielder while having below-average speed. He’s got an above-average arm and plus instincts which should allow him to stay there, like a Jim Edmonds.
A team that thinks the pre-2011 Bradley is the real one will likely still take a chance pretty early on.
My take: Bradley is the third pick that seems to have “fallen” into the lap of the Sox. While both Swilhart and Owens probably fell due to signability issues, Bradley fell due to a complete lack of production his junior year at South Carolina. However, combine his wrist injury with the adjustment to the new college bats and you can easily look past his tough season. Even with all of his offensive struggles, he still posted a .361 OBP and only struck out in about 14 percent of his at-bats. Bradley had posted OBPs of .430 (2009) and .473 (2010) his previous two seasons at South Carolina. This draft pick could certainly echo the Anthony Ranaudo situation from a year ago. Ranaudo signed, got healthy and is putting up impressive numbers in the minors this season.
Overall
If the Sox are willing to dish out the dough, they have just scored a ton of talent to plug into their minor league system. While both Swilhart and Ownes will not be easy signs, it’s clear that the Sox made no attempt to shy away from such situations on day one. Both picthers, Barnes and Owens, have clean and easy mechanics that should help them maintain good command and allow them to work almost exclusively on improving their pure stuff. Swilhart has a chance to grow into a catchers body, but even if he doesn’t his simple yet powerful swing should play at a corner as he continues to develop. Bradley may have been the biggest “gamble” based on his fall from grace this past spring, but he could very easily work past his 2011 struggles and get back to being the on-base/power threat that many envisioned heading into the 2011 college season.
The reward gained from these four picks could be huge. For now, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.