His velocity passed the first test as his average velocity in his two starts this month are at career levels of 91 mph. The concern with Lackey this year was how slow his fastball was in the last ten to twenty pitches of any game. He would lose 2-3 mph in that range, but in his start this past Saturday against Toronto he was still topping 90 and nearing 91 with his last few pitches.
On the other question I pulled just his cutter data and in the first two starts he has thrown over 30 percent cutters, which is his current average since joining the Red Sox. At the start of the season I found his cutter was averaging 0 in horizontal movement and was giving up plenty of runs. Since his return though his cutter is moving back towards his four seam movement with a -2.50 horizontal movement.
I wouldn’t say that immediately makes it better and it becomes less like a cutter and more like a four seamer, but that might not be a bad thing. He never did throw a true “cutter” that moved with positive horizontal movement, so moving back towards the four seamer seem like what he did before this spring.
Lackey still gave up a combined 7 runs in 11.2 IP since returning, but he’s totaled 2 wins and things have been better. He has a 9:4 K:BB total in those games, but seven of those strikeouts came in the second game alone. Obviously one or two starts is not enough to consider Lackey back to full strength, but everything is encouraging so far.
Value in Platoons
The splits for Lowrie are obvious to anyone with an internet connection. In 72 plate appearances against left handers he is hitting .391/.403/.638, but against right handers he is only .211/.286/.285. Obviously he is facing more right handers if he continues to see a lot of time and this will continue to drag down his numbers.
He is probably not as bad against righties as he has been, but he still stands to be a better player used as a lefty platoon and in for injury replacement. He also has to be considered as someone more likely to move to third base defensively in the future, but that’s not likely to happen in Boston. With all the short stop options in Boston I still think Lowrie will become a trade chip if he proves his health this year.
Until that time though I would use Lowrie to the best of his ability by limiting his defense at short stop and batting him against lefties as much as you can. If you can spot him in place of different players like David Ortiz and Marco Scutaro when lefties are starting or as late inning pinch hitter when left handers come in relief you can build his value.
I think his long term prospects come down to his defense value to the Red Sox. If they think he is better than UZR is saying this season he could be an above average short stop. If not than he is a average or below short stop and could make better use in trade. Will Lowrie be good enough defensively to be the long term answer in Boston at short stop?low