With all of the talk of radical realignment, teams shifting leagues, and abolishing divisions, the guys at the Platoon Advantage had an epiphany. Rather than wreak league-wide havoc and shuffle teams about, they felt expanding the league by two teams to a total of 32 clubs was in the best interest of baseball. With the emergence of new viable markets, and a couple of older markets showing the potential for additional capacity, expansion would allow for a multitude of benefits including the balancing of the two leagues; injecting some much needed offensive life support into the sport; and increasing the game’s revenue streams and marketability.
With this in mind, Bill and The Common Man thought it would be fun to enlist the help of their Sweet Spot blogging cohorts (and a few others) to complete a mock expansion draft. (Here is round one, and rounds two and three.) A few weeks ago, The Common Man approached me, and offered the opportunity to participate as the Red Sox General Manager. Of course, being a die hard baseball fan that loves player transactions and the hot stove rumor mill as much as the game itself, I jumped at the opportunity to play the role of Theo Epstein.
As part of my duties, I was tasked with the responsibility of creating a list of players that would be protected from being drafted by the mythical expansion teams. In order to keep things simple, we were asked to act under the same rules provided to teams prior to the 1997 expansion draft, which were as follows:
A) Players who were drafted in the last two amateur drafts (2010 and 2011) were not eligible to be selected in the Expansion draft. Also, players selected in the 2009 amateur draft who were under the age of 19 at the time they were selected are also exempt. Teams do not have to protect these players. These same rules apply to amateur free agents who signed in the same timeframe. Therefore, neither expansion club could pick Mike Trout from the Angels.
B) Any player who is going to be a free agent, obviously, will not need to be protected in this draft, since they will not be on their team’s roster at the time of the draft. Therefore, the Mets do not have to burn a spot on Jose Reyes, unless they happen to sign him to an extension before then.
C) Teams are required to submit a list of 15 eligible players who will be “protected” for the first round, meaning that neither expansion team can select them. The Marlins, for instance, protected Mike Stanton, recognizing that he was an incredible young talent with a low salary that any expansion team would pounce on.
D) The expansion teams are only allowed to select one player from any organization per round. For instance, if one club selected Adrian Beltre from the Texas Rangers, the Rangers couldn’t lose anyone else for the rest of that round.
E) After each expansion team has picked 15 players (which would mean that every MLB club has had one players selected), each club is allowed to protect three additional players for Round 2. At that point, the process repeats itself, with 15 more picks, and three more protected players, for Round 3. This continues until each expansion team has selected 35 players.
While this assignment seems relatively simple, I can assure you that it’s not. When you’re only able to protect 21 total players (and 15 during the first round), you’re forced to make some very difficult choices. Regardless of what you do, you’re going to leave yourself open to losing a player you like. The key, for me, was to examine the potential of each player, and minimize the potential short and long-term impacts to the team. As I prepared, I went through multiple drafts, weighed the pros and cons of several players, and second guessed myself at every turn. In the end, I submitted a list of protected players that I felt was both complete and flawed. There were a few players I’d left unprotected that I wish I hadn’t, but I just didn’t have room for them on the list. The only choice I had was to hope they didn’t get selected.
With the draft having recently been completed, I thought I’d be fun to both share my list with you, and provide some rationale behind my decisions. When reviewing my choices, please keep two things in mind: (1) the expansion draft would theoretically happen after the 2011 season, so I made my decision from that perspective; and (2) I submitted my list to TPA on May 23rd, and our perceptions of certain players may have changed in the interim. Ok, without further adieu, here’s my list of protected players.
- 1B Adrian Gonzalez – This is a no brainer. Even with his massive contract extension in tow, one of the two expansion teams would have snatched him up in a second had he been unprotected. He’s a 29 year old power hitting franchise player with a picture perfect left-handed swing. Do you know how many of those guys are out there? Not many!
- 2B Dustin Pedroia – Another very easy selection. He’s 27 years old former MVP with a very attractive contract. Enough said.
- 3B Kevin Youkilis – Even though Youk will soon enter his decline phase, the idea of losing both his bat and team friendly salary was too much to bear. Had he been chosen, the selecting team would have likely not only used him as a very attractive trade chip, but also brought in a decent haul of prospects in return. Knowing Youk’s value, it doesn’t make sense to lose him without getting anything in return.
- SS Jed Lowrie – While the debate still rages on, Lowrie’s re-emergence has given him the inside track to win the starting shortstop job in 2012. Considering the team’s track record with shortstops in the post-Nomar era, it’s probably a wise idea to stick with a proven (albeit injury prone) shortstop, rather than hand the reigns to the young, raw, and still immature Jose Iglesias.
- LF Carl Crawford – For a second, I actually considered not protecting him. Why? His seven year $142M contract is seen by some as a potential albatross; thereby making him less likely to be picked up by a cost conscious expansion team. Still, I couldn’t take the risk. When Crawford’s right, he’s one of the most talented and dynamic players in the league. His current .279 OBP not withstanding, I like his chances of being an All-Star caliber player in Boston.
- CF Jacoby Ellsbury – While I’m not a huge Ellsbury fan, I’d have to be stupid to let him leave without receiving any form of compensation. He’s a significantly overvalued commodity who’s inexpensive and under team control through 2013. If the Red Sox are going to move Ellsbury (and I seriously doubt they will), they should do so via a trade.
- SP Jon Lester – Lester is an ace quality pitcher that strikes batters out, induces ground balls, and seriously contends for the Cy Young Award every season. Pitchers with his pedigree are rare. The only way I’d let him leave is if someone pried him from my dead, lifeless hands.
- SP Josh Beckett – After a tumultuous 2010 season, Beckett returned to ace-form in 2011. While he won’t be able to perform at such a high level over the long-term, his upside is something that can’t be denied. When Beckett is at his best, very few pitchers can match his intensity and performance. As he demonstrated in 2007, he’s both capable and willing to put an entire team on his back, and lead them to the promised land. With pitching at a premium, you can’t let a pitcher like Beckett be unprotected.
- SP Clay Buchholz – Do you remember what I said about Lester? While he’s not there yet, Buchholz appears ready to take that next pivotal step into ace-hood. I’m holding on to him for dear life.
- RP Daniel Bard – Armed with a fastball that touches the triple digits and a slider that causes hitters to swing feebly from their heels, Bard has the stuff to be one of baseball’s most dominant closers. As a result, he’s the only relief pitcher I’ve identified as being worthy of protecting.
- SS Jose Iglesias – As we all know, Iglesias is a super slick fielding shortstop with great range and a strong arm. While his work on the offensive side of the ball can be best described as dreadful, there’s still hope he can hit at or slightly above the replacement level with some additional development time in the high minors. If he can, he should have little problem being a league average everyday shortstop in the majors.
- RF Ryan Kalish – Regardless of what anyone says, Kalish (not Josh Reddick) is my odds on favorite to win the starting job right field job that’s soon to be vacated by the incumbent J.D. Drew. With good speed, above average power, and great range/instincts defensively, I couldn’t leave this potential starting player unprotected.
- CF Ryan Westmoreland – I’m still holding out hope that Westmoreland fully recovers from the cavernous malformation on his brain stem that’s kept him out of action since the end of the 2009 season. In hindsight, I probably should have left him unprotected because most team’s would probably shy away from a player in his condition; thereby allowing me to protect someone else. Still, I couldn’t stand the idea of losing a player with his talent and potential. If I made one mistake, it was probably this one.
- SP Felix Doubront – While I’m not as high on Doubront as some, his age, versatility, and potential caused me to include him in the top 15. With Daisuke Matsuzaka all but guaranteed to miss the entire 2012 season, and John Lackey‘s ability to pitch effectively in question; having a viable pitcher that can both start and relieve is incredibly important to this team. In other words, he’d fill the role vacated by Justin Masterson in 2009. With no clear alternative, his inclusion on the list was fairly simple.
- C Ryan Lavarnaway – Though I’m not convinced he has the defensive chops to remain a catcher long-term, the fact that he could remain at catcher, with his offensive skill set, makes him too valuable to keep unprotected. Catchers with on base abilities and power are rare to find; especially if they can play defense at a league average level.
Round 2
- SP Stolmy Pimentel – What can I say? I love his potential. Sure, he might not be performing now, but there are a lot of teams that would love to get their hands on this wiry right-hander. The best part about Pimental is that he’s only 21 years old, and has an array of major league quality pitches. Provided he can right the ship in terms of command and mechanics, there’s a solid shot he could end up being a solid major league pitcher. That’s still a big if, but the potential is certainly there.
- 3B Will Middlebrooks – Most analysts agree that Youkilis isn’t long for the third base position. Though I anticipate Lowrie migrating from short to third at some point, Middlebrooks has shown enough potential and improvement in A and AA to start mentioning his name as a potential successor at third base. As such, I felt he warranted a spot on the protected list.
- SP Drake Britton – This is one of those picks where it seemed like a really good idea at the time. Looking back, I probably shouldn’t have protected him this early, if at all, as there were better players available to protect.
Selection: Yamaico Navarro – Yeah, I probably shouldn’t have underestimated such a versatile player with a strong bat. At the time, I saw him more as an organizational player or a trade chip. Now, I see him as more of a potential piece to the big league puzzle.
Round 3
- 2B Oscar Tejeda – Although he’s taken a step back this year since being promoted to AA, he showed a ton of potential last year playing in A ball. At only 21, he’s still a little young for his current promotion level, so it’s possible we can chalk his struggles up to age. Still, I like him as a long term prospect that could fill a critical utility role for the Sox at some point in the future.
- SP Kyle Weiland – You can never have enough quality pitchers on your roster. Weiland has pitched very well during his first season in AAA, and could be a late season addition to the bullpen. Considering how expensive late inning power relievers are, I felt it was in the team’s best interest to protect him.
- C Tim Federowicz – The catching position is pretty scarce. As a result, I decided to protect this well regarded prospect who’s stock is on the rise.
Selection: None – No one was chosen from the Red Sox in the third round.
That’s my list. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. Did I leave someone off of the list you think I should have included? How did you feel about my decision to protect Westmoreland over Reddick? Or Britton over Navarro? I look forward to reading and answering your comments in the section below.