John, John, John, John…what ever shall we do with you? A 6.41 ERA in 160 innings, a 1.9 K/BB rate (below the league average) and only nine “quality starts” out of 28 games started. All of this comes with a contract that pays $15.25M over the next three seasons.
At no point in 2011 did John Lackey seem to figure things out. It was like a roller coaster ride that you knew would end with someone hurling on your lap. Every time he’d run a couple good starts back-to-back, he’d follow with a five run outing, or a seven, even nine run outing. As usual, his fastball started the season in the low 90’s and gained velocity as the season progressed. Normally, this trend resulted in improved numbers, as it did in 2010 when Lackey had a 4.78 pre-all-star ERA and a 3.97 post-all-star ERA. Technically, he actually did improve after the all-star break in 2011, but I’d shy away from really calling it an improvement.
Pre-all-star 2011: 6.84 ERA, 1.9 K/BB
Post-all-star 2011: 6.00 ERA, 2 K/BB
There were plenty of off the field issues that seemed to haunt Lackey this season. His wife was going through medical treatment for cancer and we would find out in late September that Lackey had actually filed for divorce. The media was like a ten-ton weight on his shoulders from day one it seemed, even TMZ got in on the action.
Ever since arriving in Boston, Lackey has been a different pitcher. He was always known for having a fiery personality, but when his results on the mound weakened, that personality became less and less tolerable. His biggest issue in 2011 was putting hitters on base via the free pass. If we combine both his walks and hit batsmen, his rate of walks per nine innings jumps to 4.22. The league average BB/9 is 3.11, which, without the hit batters included, Lackey stays close to (3.15). He hit 19 batters in 160 innings this past season, the highest rate of his career by far.
That lack of control cost him in more ways than one. Lackey also allowed 20 home runs in those 160 innings, or about one home run every nine innings pitched. Pitch f/x data from TexasLeaguers.com shows the difference in Lackey’s pitch location from his last two seasons with the Angels to his first two with the Red Sox.
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You can see two things from the pitch location chart: First, Lackey’s pitch results are higher and wider. Second, he’s throwing more “cutters”. The problem is, according to the data, his cutter actually has less movement than the “four seamer” he was throwing while with the Angels. Whether or not the pitch is a “cutter” or “four-seamer”, one thing is certain, his fastball has less overall movement than it did before he came to Boston.
Lackey’s fastball was worth -21.3 runs “above” average (wFB, definition here). Even his curveball, which used to be one of his biggest assets in Anaheim, has become a negative pitch in terms of value. Only his slider has remained a plus pitch and he leaned on that pitch more than ever in 2011, throwing it over 22 percent of the time.
The weakening of Lackey’s fastball and curveball has led to a big change in swing-and-miss rate since the start of his Red Sox creer. After four straight seasons (2006-2009) with a league average contact rate against (league average is about 80-81 percent), Lackey’s contact rate jumped to about 84 percent in 2010 and to about 85 percent this past season. The biggest factor in the jump came from the rate in which hitters were making contact on pitches outside the strike-zone. His o-contact%, went from about 60 percent his last season with the Angels to about 71 percent in his first season with the Red Sox. That trend continued to nose dive in the wrong direction in 2011, as his o-contact% spiked to about 75 percent.
There’s no running away from this. John Lackey is not a very good pitcher anymore. Can he be above league average in 2012? Sure he can, Fangraphs’ wins above replacement says he was just that this past season (1.5 fWAR). However, at this point, we can pretty much give up on expecting a return on investment due to the money he’s owed over the next three seasons.
Who knows, maybe Lackey will dedicate himself this winter and come back with a new outlook on pitching and better overall stuff. Maybe he’ll focus on painting the black more often. Red Sox fans can only hope. There’s no getting around just how bad John Lackey was in 2011, but from here there’s no way to go but up…right?