The changeup was nasty. It dropped in like an off-speed dart, hitting the edge of the strike zone as if a painter was adding a precise stroke to his work. This was the out pitch, the one that had hitters swinging at air, the one that had them walking back to the dugout shaking their heads. And the amazing thing about it all was that his changeup had never been scouted as a plus pitch. The date was July 6th, 2010, and for one day, one game, one inning, and even one pitch, Felix Doubront looked like the future.

The Red Sox ended up losing that game to the Tampa Bay Rays, falling a game and a half behind in the American League Wild Card standings, a deficit they would never make up. Doubront earned the loss despite the changeup he was throwing, although he would walk back to the dugout to a chorus of praise from his teammates and the Boston press alike. He had pitched well, and even though an L would sit next to his name in the box score the next morning, it came back to that one pitch: the changeup.

Born in Venezuela, and signed as an international free agent, Doubront has been in Boston’s system since 2005. He features a fastball that tops out at 95, a curveball that has proven to be ineffective at times, and yes, a changeup. Scouts often rave about his deceptive delivery, which hides the ball from the hitter until the moment it is released, making his fastball seem even faster. The knock on the lefty has always been that he allows too many home runs, often leaving pitches far too high in the strike zone.

Doubront made his major league debut on June 18th, 2010 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The third hitter he ever faced was Manny Ramirez. He picked up the win, going five innings and allowing three runs. He struck out two and walked two, a telling ratio despite the sample size. He made two more starts that year and lost them both before returning as a reliever later in the year. Coming into this spring, the lefty figured to have a good shot at becoming a key part of the bullpen. Last offseason Boston signed a few marquee relievers (although Bobby Jenks may have something to say about that adjective), but decided to go the low risk-high reward route when it came to left-handers. As such, it seemed likely that Doubront would at least compete for this role.

He didn’t. Instead, he showed up to Spring Training out of shape, and unprepared to earn the role that many had preordained to him. He has been an oft-injured player, which has added to the difficulty of finding a consistent role for him. A nagging hamstring has caused him to miss time both this year and last. In his time in the majors, he has proven the scouting reports right. His 8.28 K/9 in his first twenty-five innings showed that he certainly has the ability to strike batters out, but his career 6.97 BB/9 proves that he also has the ability to be wild. On top of the walks, opponents have shown a high contact rate (84.4%) against him. The strange number is the O-contact % (contact % a batter makes when swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) against him: 82.4%. For a pitcher who supposedly has great off-speed and breaking stuff, this doesn’t add up. To put it in perspective, John Lackey’s career O-Contact % is 60.6%, and he’s, well, John Lackey. On top of that, his Z-contact % (percentage of time a batter makes contact with pitches thrown inside the strike zone) is high at 85.2%. Now, this number is supposed to be fairly high, but when Doubront’s O-Contact % is also high, it all adds up to a pitcher that has been pretty easy to hit. Part of this is due to the .365 BABIP against him, but most of it is due to the fact that he’s just throwing too many hittable pitches.

With no minor league options remaining, the Sox have some interesting decisions to make regarding Doubront in the year to come. If he can come into Spring Training in much better shape than he was in this year, then there’s no reason to believe that he can’t be the key lefty in the bullpen when camp breaks. While this wouldn’t be ideal, and would certainly lend itself to a bit of a learning curve, Doubront has the ability. The Sox drafted him as a starter, and all indications are that they would still like him to develop into one. For a team that’s a bit starved of starting depth at the moment, Doubront is an interesting option. Either way, the lefty should be a fairly significant part of next year’s team.

Felix Doubront may pan out to nothing more than an out of shape, often injured, international free agent. But on that day at Tropicana Field, with his change up working at its highest capability, he seemed like so much more. We as a society have a tendency to make quick judgments on things, whether it’s the president of our country, or a minor league baseball player. We see one pitch and suspicions are either confirmed or denied. On that day many anointed Doubront as the lefty of the future. The tragedy of it is he may be nothing at all. Such is the tight rope of a prospect: futures made and broken on single pitches. And what a beautiful pitch it was.