Last week, I was channeling my inner Mark McGwire when I triumphantly declared that I was not going to talk about the past, but instead focus on the future. While I don’t plan on taking it quite to the extent Darryl alluded to on Sunday, I’m hoping to keep this going a little longer. Trying to counterbalance the yettis of the Boston media brings me great joy, but after a while it becomes exhausting. For the time being, I’d much rather try to evaluate potential solutions for the Red Sox in 2012.
Coming into Spring Training, many thought the Red Sox would have one of the deepest and most productive starting rotations in baseball. Considering the reputations of the pitchers involved, it was hard to blame them. Jon Lester had been teetering on the cusp of becoming a legitimate Cy Young contender, and looked ready to take that proverbial next step forward. Clay Buchholz seemed ready to establish himself as the team’s number two guy. Josh Beckett, despite his brutal primary stats, looked like a solid choice to bounce back from a lost 2010 season. John Lackey‘s late season surge gave many reasons to be optimistic about his prospects for 2011. Daisuke Matsuzaka, though disappointing overall, had the potential of being one of the most productive fifth starters in recent memory. Lastly, if all else failed, they had the reliable Tim Wakefield to soak up a few starts. Everything appeared to be on the “up and up” for the rotation.
Oh how wrong we all were…
First, Dice-K went down with a torn UCL in his throwing elbow that not only required Tommy John surgery, but also sidelined him indefinitely. Next, Buchholz was forced to the DL with a mysterious lower back sprain in June that later turned out to be stress fracture that would cause him to miss the rest of the season. Lackey struggled all season long, eventually earning the distinction as the man with the highest ERA (160 inning minimum) in major league history. Finally, in September, Beckett and Erik Bedard simultaneously dropped like dominoes; leaving the Red Sox to do battle with nothing but Lester and a box of rocks at the most crucial time of the season. Needless to say, as the rotation crumbled, so did the Red Sox.
Going into 2012, the rotation seems slightly inadequate. While Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz seem likely to put in solid seasons, the fourth and fifth slots carry significant uncertainty. As reported during yesterday’s press conference introducing incoming GM Ben Cherington, Lackey will miss the entire 2012 season after suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament; thus requiring Tommy John surgery. The fifth starting slot, currently vacant, lacks an obvious in-house replacement, and will likely require an external reinforcement. Wakefield seems destined to be non-tendered; Alfredo Aceves appears to be better suited for a spot starter/long-relief role; and Kyle Weiland‘s repertoire isn’t strong enough to be anything more than a one inning reliever. As a result, the Red Sox will need to look externally, either via free agency or trade, to fill the slot.
Who might the Red Sox look to sign? The biggest free agent names this offseason will be Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia (assuming he opts out of his current deal) and Rangers SP C.J. Wilson. As tempting as it might be to make a play for either pitcher, it’s ultimately nothing more than a pipe dream. Given their already shallow rotation, the Yankees will be very aggressive in negotiations to retain Sabathia; potentially going as far as blowing all competing offers out of the water. Essentially, the bidding is over before it even begins. Wilson, as the top obtainable free agent starting pitcher on the market, will probably be grossly overpriced given his age and true talent level. He’s a very good pitcher (10.5 fWAR over the last two seasons), but it’s not hard to envision a scenario where his production slides considerably early in his next contract. With the Red Sox already paying more then $52M to five starting pitchers (two currently injured), it seems unlikely they’d be willing to pony up an additional $16-20M+ for another free agent pitcher. Still, given the two glaring holes in the rotation, the front office will likely at least give it a shot. We can probably expect them to try to drive up the price on the Yankees for Sabathia, while making a realistic (albeit unsuccessful) play on the sly for Wilson.
Instead, the Red Sox will probably look to sign someone from either the second-tier or value crop of free agents. Here are a couple of realistic ideas of whom Ben Cherington and his staff might kick the tires on this winter.
Mark Buehrle - As a soon-to-be 33 year old entering free agency for the first time in his career, Buehrle will likely be interested in exploring the market in hopes of finding the best fit for his services. Inside sources expect him to either return to the White Sox or sign with his hometown Cardinals, but there appears to be some growing flexibility. At this point in his career, he’s best suited as a dependable, inning eating back-of-the-rotation pitcher on a contending team. He works quickly, strikes out few, and seems to defy all logic when it comes to the DIPS theory. He just finished a four year $56M contract where he produced 15.1 fWAR over the duration. As a result, he won’t likely be looking to take a massive pay cut. Provided he’s willing to accept no more than three years at around $11-12M per (a big if), he could be worth locking up. Given his recent performance history, 2.5-3.5 fWAR per season seems like a fair projection through 2014.
Erik Bedard - The biggest mark against Bedard is that he can’t stay healthy. Having only topped 160 innings twice in his career (and not since 2007), it’s probably not wise for the Red Sox to expect a full slate of 32-33 starts next season. That said, he’s a high-reward talent that can pay serious dividends in the right circumstance. Despite lower fastball velocity and a lower swinging strike rate, Bedard’s managed to retain a near elite level strikeout rate (23.1% in 2011). If he can slightly lower his walk rate, while maintaining his neutral GB/FB ratio, he should be able to continue producing at a 3.50-3.75 FIP level. Considering his history with arm injuries, a one year incentive laden deal with a $2-4M base salary seems fair. Anything beyond that, the Red Sox should probably pass.
Hiroki Kuroda – Despite getting little fanfare, Kuroda is one of the more productive middle of the rotation starters in baseball. He doesn’t seem to excel at any one thing, but does a lot of things well. He uses a sinker/slider combination to induce ground balls, and throws a splitter as his strikeout pitch (20% whiff rate). The biggest roadblocks in signing Kuroda are likely to be his age, asking price, and his desire to pitch for a team not on the west coast. Considering his solid performance last season, he’ll probably seek out a deal similar to the one year $12M contract he signed last winter. Given he’s about to enter his age-38 season, the Red Sox might be a little apprehensive in meeting his demands. Still, he’s a name to consider.
Roy Oswalt – A lot of this depends on if Oswalt handles his side of his mutual option. The Phillies recently declined their option on him, but it’s hard to see Oswalt leaving $16M on the table to become a free agent. Still, if his back has been given a clean bill of health, he may decide to test the market now if he feels he can make more money over the long haul while taking taking a paycut for 2012. At 34, Oswalt is still one of the best middle-of-the-rotation starters in the game, and he’ll probably be looking for a rather expensive three year deal. If so, the Red Sox would be wise to pass. If his demands drop (to two years and a lower average annual value), he might be worth taking for a test drive; provided the appropriate medical provisions are written into his contract.
Paul Maholm – Maholm could be an interesting target if/when the Pirates choose to decline the $9.75M option they hold for 2012. Although he’s by no means a sexy choice, he’s certainly a very useful pitcher that could certainly fill out the back of the Red Sox rotation. He doesn’t strike out many batters (14.3% K rate); has average control (7.7% BB rate); and has topped 200 innings only one time in his six year stretch as a starting pitcher. On the plus side, his batted ball profile is ground ball heavy (52.3% GB rate), and he seems to be one of those rare pitchers that has a natural ability to limit home runs. I’m not convinced he’s an ideal fit for the Red Sox or the AL East, but he could be worth taking a one year flyer on. Despite his potential salary for 2012, he could probably be signed for less if he hits the free agent market.
Joel Pineiro – Yes, it’s true. We’ve already been there, done that with Pineiro once before. Since he left the Red Sox midway through the 2007 season, he worked with Dave Duncan in St. Louis, developed a sinking two-seam fastball, and turned his career around. Last season though, he took a step back as he struggled through nagging injuries for much of the year. After seeing his FIP jump to 4.43; K% plummet to a career worst 9.8%; and his groundball rate drop below 50% for the first time since 2008, it’s safe to say signing him carries some risk. Still, the outlook on Pineiro’s health is good, and there’s no reason not to expect him to return to being the 2 WAR pitcher he was in 2010. Still, given his inconsistent performance history, either a one year incentive laden deal or a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite is probably ideal.
Jeff Francis – Few people will agree with me, but I really like Francis. Most will look at his 6-16 record, mediocre ERA, and meh strikeout rate, and miss all of the positive qualities. He’ll provide 180 innings of quality work, above average control, and will keep the ball on the ground. On the contending team, he’s the quintessential back-of-the-rotation starter. After signing a one year $2M contract with the Royals last January, his price should be even lower this year given his primary stats. If he can produce another 2 WAR season in 2012 (as he did in 2010 and 2011), his sub-$2M salary would be a major bargain.
Dontrelle Willis – I promise you, I haven’t gone crazy. After struggling mightily with control for three seasons, Willis finally took a step forward in his recovery from Steve Blass disease last season. While he’s still a work in progress, quite a bit of upside remains. I wouldn’t give him a spot on the 40-man roster to start, but signing him to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training is certainly a good place to start. At the very least, they could stash him in Pawtucket as a depth option that they could call on when needed. If it doesn’t work out, he can be released with little collateral damage.
So what are your thoughts on who the Red Sox should sign to fill the rotation the 2012 season? Will they splurge and sign one of the big named free agents? Will they take the value route? Or will they stay in-house and go with either Aceves or Wakefield? Make your opinion known! If you think a player not included on this list could be a target, tell us who it is and explain why the Red Sox might be interested.
Categories: Boston Red Sox C.C. Sabathia C.J. Wilson Clay Buchholz Daisuke Matsuzaka Erik Bedard Hiroki Kuroda Jeff Francis Joel Pineiro John Lackey Jon Lester Josh Beckett Mark Buehrle Paul Maholm Roy Oswalt Tim Wakefield
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Mark Buehrle is the type of pitcher they need; a guy who can give them a ton of quality innings. I have my reservations about him though. He has made 49 starts each against the Twins and Indians posting ERAs of 3.75 and 3.73. Those clubs are not exactly offensive juggernauts. I wonder how he will perform in the AL East.
My biggest concern is his K%, which is in the 12% range over the past three years. He's always been a DIPS defying pitcher, but I wonder how much longer he can keep it going. He manages to get hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone, while generating few swings and misses. Eventually, he's going to be on the losing end of that trend. He's past his prime, but still a solid pitcher. As a fourth or fifth starter, we don't need him to be superman.
Just had an interesting thought. 40% of the Red Sox starting rotation from opening day had or will have Tommy Johns surgery this year. Coincidence or indictment on Red Sox pitching philosophy? Most likely a coincidence, but interesting none the less.
We need to stop this assumption that the AL East is some amazing division. Does it have two really good teams? Sure, but there is some scraps as well. Mark Buehrle has a career FIP of 4.22 against the AL Central, but a 3.88 against the AL East. He has been better against the AL East with the Red Sox included!
He hasn't been great against NY, but in only 67 IP I would say he has not thrown enough innings against them. There are some sample size issues with some teams, but at worst let's call his numbers even. If you want to say he will suffer against NY I would say look at his career against Cleveland with a 4.95 FIP in 277 IP.
That's true. The AL East does get to beat up on the Orioles, so that neutralizes of the effect of the division.
AL East: 4.8 R/G
AL Central: 4.3 R/G
AL West: 4.2 R/G
And no team in the East was below 4.4 R/G. Still a tough division to play in.
Right, but any Red Sox pitcher will have the luxury of not pitching against their own team. When you remove the Red Sox from the equation, how do the numbers look?
4.67 R/G. Still highest by a good amount.
And yes, they have the bonus of not pitching against the Red Sox but the also have to pitch half their games in Fenway Park, a notorious hitters ballpark. I don't think we can say pitching for the Red Sox vs. the White Sox can be called even.
You touched on part of my point. Much of the AL East "effect" is park related and not just talent level. R/G is not an informative stat especially when discussing pitching skills. AL East only has one "pitchers" park in Tampa and is largely full of hitters parks. The AL Central is fairly neutral for parks and AL West is dominated by pitchers parks.
My guess is that AL East is still in front but it's not enough that I would avoid "career" AL Central or West pitchers.
Right, it's not enough to avoid those pitchers. But I think it's something to keep in mind.
Also, can you explain how Run Scored Per Game is not informative? If how many runs teams score isn't important, than what is? If I'm not mistaken, you need to score more runs than the other team to win.
First, that's three really good teams for the past several years, all pretty much top 5 in the AL beyond reasonable argument. Second, Toronto and Baltimore neither have weak offenses; Baltimore, in particular, hasn't pitched well lately. Matt gives good stats below.
Provided he is given a clean bill of health I think a 2 yr $22mil deal w/ an option for a 3rd year makes sense for Roy Oswalt and the Red Sox.
"Provided he is given a clean bill of health"
With the medical staff being shaky at best right now. I wouldn't want to put that much money in any health risk.
Good stuff, Chip "Don't call me Larry" Buck! The Jeff Francis pick is sneaky good. PLEASE no more Tim Wakefield.
of the pitchers you mention, malholm's 1.3 WAR is the lowest (excepting your way 'outside the box' d. willis idea.) using that as the floor, here are the other fa pitchers not on your list followed by their WAR:
chen 1.7, dempster 2.8 ($14m pl. opt.), garcia 2.2, l. hernandez 1.9, e. jackson 3.8, marquis 1.4, vazquez 3.2, webb who posted a 6 war during his last healthy season (2009) and wainwright.
first of all, i think bedard should be retained if the price is right. who had the highest K/9 among red sox starters? who had the worst BABIP? lowest HR/9? lowest FB/HR%? erik bedard. all signs point to a decent year upcoming with that caveat that he remain healthy. he did pitch 130 innings last year which represents an encouraging trend…
the true what if's are webb and wainwright who have both been outstanding ace quality pitchers in their careers. neither career is over, 32 and 30 respectively, but both pose risk in that they are coming off of surgery. wainwright has a $9M team option for 2012 and if st. louis declined to pick it up that would send up significant warning signs. he is slated to be ready by spring training after 2.28.11 tommy john surgery. were i the red sox gm, i would be comfortable offering 3-4 years at 10m/yr for the 30 yr. old if he were available. he is said to be a man of faith which would likely mean that he ask a team to have some faith of their own in offering a multi-year deal.
webb could probably be signed for around 3-4m on a one year deal. his is a risky situation in that he will be coming off a second rotator cuff surgery in as many years. if he were healthy his sinkerball would look great in fenway.
dempster, if he opts out, will be looking for a similar deal to the one you laid out for oswalt. by all accounts dempster is one of the best clubhouse guys in baseball as well as working over 200 innings as a 34 year old while performing well, 3.91 FIP. he likely will be retained by the cubs, but if he decides to look around ben charington should convince him to move to the back bay.
obtaining garcia would net us a quality mid to back of the rotation arm while weakening the yankees. win-win.
assuming everyone opts out:
oswalt, dempster, wainwright.
assuming none opt out:
bedard, buehrle, garcia.
qualifier:
it is my opinion that the sox should employ a six man rotation. it has been documented that the red sox pitchers start to decline at or around 175 ip. http://www.boston.com/sports/columnists/massarott…
now is the perfect time to try it, the dominant personalities will be tempered by recent events, a change in management can bring this 'idea' in and be seen as the genius that saves the starting pitchers and does not tax the pen. some recent teams to employ a six man rotation? 2011 yankees and rays.
over 162 game season, each member of a 5 man rotation makes 33 starts. a 6 man rotation will offer 27 starts. a clever manager uses the strengths of his or her charges wisely and minimizes the weaknesses. if 175 ip is the ceiling then a pitcher would last 5.1 innings per start at 33 starts. a 6 man rotation would allow for 6.2 ip/start, which would be half of the requirements for a quality start.
finally, it may entice older pitchers in that a lower work load would maximize their declining fitness.
Fenway is historically hell on left-handed pitchers; I'd feel safest with Kuroda of all those options.
I'd love to see the Sox sign a combination of Bedard and Rich Harden, and between them cross your fingers that you can get a combined 35 starts between the two. Francis is an interesting option, but only a minor league deal or clause where he can opt out if he doesn't make the opening day roster.
Also, why no mention of Yu Darvish? :)
Yu Darvish is a special case that I may revisit in another article. He's definitely an intriguing option.
Realistically, the Sox need three starters, because they can't rely on Buchholz for a full load coming off the stress fracture (which is best addressed by less stress). It's fine to bring back Bedard, but he'd have to be paired with a pretty good RH innings-eater. I'd certainly talk to the Angels, who are loaded with these guys. Among the free agents, Buerhle is the better pitcher but Kuroda the better fit. Wish we had Masterson – that would have been a good trade, if we'd won.
Good point about the possible need for Buch to take it slow. On the other hand, by February he will have been rehabbing it for7 months. He could be 100%. Even so, Ben will accumulate starting pitching depth in addition to Doubront, Tazawa, Matsuzaka, Wilson all available as the season progresses in case of break down by Bedard or Buch. I see Harden in the Pen just in case. We also can't forget all those top FA pitchers for 2013. At least some of them will be a available at the trade deadline … at outrageous prices, but nevertheless available if we need them for the post season run. Ben knows he's in good shape with Beckeft, Lester, Buchholz, Bedard, Acevas, etc. What's all the worry about this staff?
What's the worry? Begin with no one in the top 50 in IP in 2011.
Buehrle, Wang, Webb