During Tuesday afternoon’s 3:00 press conference, incoming General Manager Ben Cherington deftly, honestly, and directly answered every question the hungry Boston press corps threw at him. He exuded the confidence, vigor, and sense of accountability one usually hopes to find in a new GM. Aside from the semi-shocking news that John Lackey would miss the entire 2012 season, and the incredibly confusing, “The qualities that we’d be looking for in the next manager are the qualities that we’re going to be looking for in the next manager,” comment; perhaps his most interesting comments were in regards to leftfielder Carl Crawford.
“I was one of the strongest proponents of signing Carl Crawford last offseason. I pushed hard for that because I believed in him and I believe in him just the same now as I did then. This guy has been an impact player on both sides of the ball for a lot of years in this league. We saw over and over what he can do to help a team win when he was in Tampa…I’m betting on Carl Crawford moving forward.”
Nearly one year after most of New England celebrated Crawford’s defection from the Rays, the mood has noticeably turned sour. After spending the previous eight seasons as a star in Tampa, he’d developed the reputation of being a top-flight defensive player that wreaked havoc on the basepaths; in particular, the Red Sox. In his previous two seasons, he seemed to take his game (and the Rays) to another level by improving his hitting, expanding his all-around game, and producing 13.5 fWAR in the process. As a result, much was expected out of the then-29 year old left fielder.
At the start of the season, it became clear something was amiss with Crawford. The usually calm and affable leftfielder seemed to be overly aggressive at the plate, even pressing. Though he’s never been considered to be a patient hitter, as evidenced by his career 31.5% O-Swing rate; his struggles seemed to be rooted in something other than just poor luck. Rather than being selectively aggressive and waiting for his pitch to drive, he swung wildly at pitches thrown outside of the zone. On occasions where he did make contact, he often did so weakly. During the month of April when Crawford produced a woefully anemic .196 wOBA, he connected for a line drive only 13.9% of the time. When all was said and done, he’d dug himself a massive hole of which was nearly impossible to climb out.
As the season wore on, his production improved dramatically at the plate. While he never quite made it to the threshold we were used to seeing during his days in Tampa, he still provided slightly above average offensive production over the remainder of the season. Most fans failed to notice these improvements because they continued to look at his year-to-date stats. This isn’t to say, his post-April performance lacked black marks. It certainly did. His walk rate fell to criminally low levels (4.3%), while his strikeout rate jumped to a new career high (19.3%). Clearly, improved plate discipline is something he’ll need to address in the coming months as he prepares for next season. Being only one season removed from back-to-back seasons of 7% walk rates, I feel comfortable in believing he can achieve that rate in 2012.
Additionally, his stolen bases totals, once his bread and butter, fell to the lowest levels of his career; thus igniting fears that his most valuable and visible skill was in a state decline. Though I understand the concern, much of the decline was likely due to one of two (or both) reasons: (1) he missed considerable time with a hamstring injury that may not have completely healed by the time he returned to action, and (2) he made all but 20 starts hitting out of slots in the lineup (6, 7, and 8) that aren’t exactly conducive to base stealing. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that his stolen base totals rebound next season once he’s healthy and hitting toward the top of the lineup. In 2008, his last injury-riddled season, his stolen base totals dropped to a then career low 25 before rebounding to 60 in 2009. Going into his age-30 season, we won’t likely see 60 stolen bases out of Crawford, but 40+ seems reasonable.
With regards to his play in left field, the only defense (no pun intended) I have is that he’s still learning the dimensions of his new home park. As most fans realize, learning how to play the Green Monster is an acquired skill. While one has the added bonus of having a smaller territory to cover, he has to learn not only how to play balls bouncing off of the 32-foot wall, but also become comfortable with the proximity of said wall. These things can take a little time. Luckily, there’s plenty of evidence indicating improvements. Though he seemed to suffer from mental mistakes defensively at times, some of this is potentially contributable to his struggles at the plate. Often times when a player struggles in one area, it carries over into others. This is not a hard and fast rule, but it has been known to happen.
Defensive metrics returned mixed results regarding his overall performance. UZR rated him at -2.2; DRS at -4; Total Zone at -4; and FRAA at +2.5. Given his lengthy, recent track record of being a plus-defender, it seems fair to anticipate a return to form in 2012.
While it was certainly reasonable to expect Crawford had peaked in 2009 and 2010, there weren’t any obvious warning signs indicating his performance would fall dramatically from it’s current levels. In all likelihood, 2011 was just a down year. In fact, I bet , next season, we’ll see his performance regress back toward his traditional performance means: a .360 wOBA, 6-7% walk rate, 50 extra base hits, 40+ steals, and above average defense. All-in-all, we could be looking at a solid 4-5 win player for each of the next three-plus seasons. Sure, maybe that wasn’t what we’d originally thought we were getting in Crawford, but perhaps our expectations were a touch high.
Still, like Cherington, I’m betting on Crawford to bounce back. He’s still the same dynamic, multi-faceted player he was in Tampa that can affect play on both sides of the ball.