While Jarrod Saltalamaccia was the big name prospect and was even the headline return (at the time) for Mark Teixeira, he has never shown that elite hitter many expected from him. He hasn’t slugged over .450 at any time in the majors and with an OBP of .307 in the majors he’s going to need a lot more power to hold a major league job.
While I have been impressed with some of his skills and he has been solid enough to be above average catcher with a 2.5 WAR in only 103 games played this past season, he does have plenty of holes in his game. He still strikes out way to much and his walk rate fell even further this season. That combination and still questionable defensive skills leaves the question… how long can the Red Sox count on him?
It’s highly unlikely that Ben Charington signs Jason Varitek again and while he might be apprehensive to enter 2012 with only Jarrod Saltalamaccia and a host of young options, I would bet that by the end of 2012 the Red Sox starting catcher will be Ryan Lavarnway.
While the veteran of only 17 games played in the majors Lavarnway was an impressive sight. He has average contact skills and that held in the majors, but also better walk skills than Saltalamaccia. When you add in his power numbers (18 HR in only 61 Games at Triple-A and 34HR in all of 2011) he looks like a much better option than Salty, who never showed that type of power at any level.
The big question with Lavarnway has been behind the plate. He only moved to catcher a few years ago and has been working on it since. He has a bat that could be considered for 1B/DH, but makes him an elite catcher if he can stay behind the plate. Here is a review from minorleagueball.com on his skills so far: (Grade of B- was from preseason grade)
“Ryan Lavarnway, C, Grade B-: .284/.360/.510 with 25 walks, 47 strikeouts in 208 at-bats for Portland, .331/.414/.640 with 22 walks, 47 strikeouts in 178 at-bats for Pawtucket. 27 homers overall. Has thrown out 37% of runners, made just one error this year, passed ball rates continue to improve and scouting reports on his glove are starting to catch up with the statistics.”
So the big hole in his game has largely become a question of game calling and blocking potential passed balls. If that can be solidified, Lavarnway has shown 30 home run power and still growing along with the skills to be a .280/.375/.500 type hitter. That is elite at a catcher and if we assume some stumbles at the major league level even a .250/.325/.400 type season would be enough with an average level skill behind the plate to surpass the 2011 season of Salty.
The Red Sox have never been one to rush prospects, and it’s possible Lavarnway could even spend some of 2012 in Pawtucket, but his skills can’t be held there long. His power behind the plate could compare with a Mike Napoli (slugged .510 in Double-A, Lavarnway .508 in 2011 at Double-A). That is a lot of pressure and I wouldn’t expect him to be a 5 WAR player, but the plate discipline alone should be enough to establish Lavarnway in Boston in the next season.