While Ryan Madson‘s four year $44M deal to remain with the Phillies is still in the final stages of completion (it’s apparently on hold), it’s probably safe to say we need to re-examine our projections for this winter’s closer market.  This is especially true with regards to Heath Bell and Jonathan PapelbonAs I mentioned earlier this morning, my initial projection for Madson was a three year contract worth$25M.  Although this seems like a perfectly reasonable contract for a pitcher that, for years, was  considered to be mentally unfit for the closer role by the team in question; it seems I forgot the most important free agent rule of all–the Ruben Amaro principle.  Had I considered this important axiom, I would have eschewed rational thought, and projected the craziest contract for Madson imaginable.  Not surprisingly, 4/$44M was frighteningly close to what I would have guessed; although I never would have imagined an option for the fifth year as he was reportedly offered. 

Regardless of whether or not David Montgomery signs off on the Madson deal, the mere rumors will likely send shockwaves through the closer market.  If you were hoping Papelbon would re-sign with the Red Sox this winter, you should probably get yourself prepared to see him in a different uniform next season.

Now, on with the links!

  • We start at Over the Monster today.  In case you missed it, they just finished a very interesting series titled “Armchair GM.”  In this scenario, each of their primary writers played GM for the day, and provided their plans for the Red Sox’s offseason rebuilding efforts.  While I’m not going to link to each article, you really should check each of them out.  Instead, I’m going to link to Matt Kory’s recap that contains a poll at the end.  Make sure to vote on your favorite plan.  Despite having much respect for e-migos Matt Kory and Marc Normandin, I chose Matt Sullivan’s plan.  He had me at Brandon McCarthy
  • Scott Willis at Crazy Crabbers smells something fishy in the San Francisco bay waters, and he doesn’t like it on bit.  He’s calling shenanigans on the Giants ownership group for raising ticket prices and lowering payroll. 
  • For those who don’t know, I have a Mark Buehrle fetish.  While I don’t advocate signing him to a crazy contract, I find him to be one of the most fascinating pitchers I’ve ever encountered.  He doesn’t strike anyone out, but he gets batters to chase pitcher’s pitches.  His GB/FB ratio is fairly commonplace, yet he somehow avoids allowing home runs.  He’s among the top ten pitchers for contact allowed (since 2002), yet he’s been extraordinarily effective over the years.  Over at SB Nation, Jeff Sullivan (also at Lookout Landing) takes a deeper look at the man who’s thrown a perfect game and a no hitter.  It’s probably my favorite piece of the day.
  • Benjamin Kabak of River Avenue Blues wrote a great piece detailing Babe Ruth’s early failures as a postseason hitter for the Yankees, and provides an interesting comparison to Alex Rodriguez.
  • How special of a talent is Jose Reyes?  William Tasker of The Flagarant Fan has the details.
  • If you write the sentence “Pitching depth? Brian [Sabean] has hookers on retainer with more depth than this organization,” your article is going to linked by me.  It’s just a fact.  Curse of Benitez at Sabeanmetrics is the author of brilliant piece of snark
  • Finally, we end with The Common Man of The Platoon Advantage rejoicing over Bill Smith being fired as the Twins GM.  While the news of the firing broke two days ago, I’m pretty sure TCM can still be found dancing in the streets somewhere.