The word future carries certain connotations. At its core, it can be defined as the time after now. Of course, it is also the great unknown, something that we endlessly try to predict even though we know nothing will be certain until we get there. So when a player is invited to participate in a game called The Futures Game, it says something about them. It implies that a general audience will see this player at a time after now, that they are the face of things to come. Playing this game just days before the Major League All-Star Game implies even more, it implies that they are going to be an All-Star one day, that in a few years it will be this player on the Major League field. It implies that they could be so much more.
Will Middlebrooks was invited to participate in the Futures Game at Chase Field this past July. Originally drafted in the fifth round of the 2007 amateur draft, the third baseman was entrenched in the middle of a season in which he would eventually finish with a .285/.328/.506 stat line, one that looks even more impressive when you add in twenty-three homers, twenty-six doubles, ten stolen bases, and ninety-four RBI’s. He went 1-2 in the game with a seeing eye single between the shortstop and the second baseman.
Kevin Youkilis was invited to participate in the Futures Game at U.S. Cellular Field in July of 2003. Originally drafted in the eighth round of the 2001 amateur draft, Youkilis had famously been adorned “the Greek God of walks” by Oakland’s General Manager, Billy Beane. Youkilis hit .285/.441/.409 that year, playing third base in Portland and Pawtucket. He did not get an at bat in the Futures Game, instead coming in as a defensive replacement in the later innings.
Fast forward to the present. Will Middlebrooks is viewed by many as Boston’s best prospect; after four years in the minors some are even calling for his promotion to the major league club. Meanwhile, Kevin Youkilis has started on Opening Day for six straight years, and has become one of the most beloved players on the team. No matter what ballpark the Sox are playing in, every time Youkilis steps to the plate, bellows of “Yooouuuukkkk” echo through the stands. Yet, he has been in a steady decline over the last two seasons (5.9 WAR in ’09, 4.1 in ’10, 3.7 in ’11), and has missed at least the last month of the season both this year and the year before. With his durability, and even his skill set, starting to come into question, rumors of a trade have been swirling. Middlebrooks in on the rise, Youkilis is seemingly on the decline. Something has to give.
Our guest columnist, Matt Collins of Red Stockings Thoughts, wrote about Youkilis’ future just a few days ago. With one year remaining on his contract (and an option for 2013), Matt’s conclusion was that the Sox would either resign David Ortiz, and keep everything the way it is, let Ortiz walk and make Youkilis the fulltime designated hitter (with a Lowrie/Aviles platoon at third) or trade Youkilis. Either way, it is unlikely that Middlebrooks will be the opening day third baseman. Only twenty-three years old, it seems likely that the front office would stick with the Lowrie/Aviles combination, giving Middlebrooks a little more time in the minors to truly prove that he is ready. If he lights up Pawtucket in the first two months of the season, then it is not unreasonable to imagine him pounding balls of the Monster come June or July.
When comparing the two third baseman, there are clear arguments for both. Middlebrooks is certainly better defensively, at least at third. Youkilis won a Gold Glove for his work at first base, but defensively he was one of the worst third baseman in the league last year with a -2.3 UZR. Middlebrooks projects as a plus defender, and almost every scouting report written on him makes note of his incredible arm strength, allowing him to rocket a ball from third to first with ease. The knock against Middlebrooks, and coincidentally the thing that has always been Youkilis’ main asset, is his plate discipline. Last season he struck out in 23% of his at bats and walked in less than 6% of them. While these numbers should improve in the years to come, it seems unlikely that he develop into the sharp eyed player that Youkilis is at the plate. A Greek God of Walks he is not.
So with Middlebrooks banging on the door of the Major Leagues, and Youkilis taking a fair amount of heat over his durability and leadership issues, where will the Sox go from here? It seems likely that they will give Middlebrooks more time to develop in the minors. Even if Youkilis is traded, they have very capable players in Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles, who could step in at third. Again, a lot of this depends on whether or not David Ortiz is resigned. Once that domino falls, everything else should be set in motion. With that being said, it seems hard to believe that Boston would be willing to trade Youkilis, especially with his value seemingly the lowest it has ever been. He has become one of the core members of this team, and it’s hard to imagine them parting with him. Then again just a few weeks ago it seemed hard to imagine a Red Sox team without Terry Francona and Theo Epstein running the show, and we all know how that story ended.
Will Middlebrooks will be the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox one day. Eight years ago, many said the same of Kevin Youkilis. Both statements were predictions, educated guesses based on the facts available. When it comes to looking to the future, that’s the best any of us can do. Whether Youkilis’ time in Boston has come to end is still uncertain, but Middlebrooks will be waiting, whether it’s this year or next. While the future is still a great unknown, baseball presents one of the few certainties, because when the Red Sox take the field in Detroit next April, someone will be playing third base: that’s not a prediction, it’s a fact. Figuring out who it will be? Well, that’s the fun part.