Well, in a short answer: yes. Unless Ben Cherington knows something that the rest of us don’t (and he just might), then Mike Aviles and Nick Punto are your shortstop options for opening day. Now, that’s not to say that there’s not still time to acquire another option, because there is. But the market for shortstops is brutal, and even the trade market for a middle infielder seems to be non-existent. Plucking someone from the minors doesn’t seem to be an option either, with Jose Iglesias struggling offensively and certainly in need of more time in Pawtucket. So that leaves us with…yup, Mike Aviles and Nick Punto. It can’t be that bad, right?
Well, in Aviles’ case, maybe not. Back in 2008 he was good for a 4.4 WAR, hitting for a .325 average, 10 home runs, and 51 RBI’s. Not bad. The only problem is he only posted a .354 OBP, good for a brutal 4.1 BB%. Not to mention his BABIP that year was .357, a sure sign that he was hitting a bit above his level. This proved to be true as he hasn’t finished a season with a WAR above 1.7 since. Almost all his stats have been in a steady decline since that peak in ’08 (his first year in the league). His power has dropped every year, and while he hit for a .304 average in 2010, he hit only .255 last year. A peculiar trend has been his defensive ability. Usually a player’s defense never changes drastically year from year. Sure, a player’s range disappears as he ages, but Aviles went from a 10.6 FLD in 2008 to a -1.7 mark in ’09, a -4.3 mark in ’10, and a miserable -6.2 last year. The real concerning thing about Aviles is his inability to take walks. His 4.1 BB% in 2008 was not a fluke as his career mark is a terrible 4.2%. His career .318 OBP is only .40 points higher than his career average of .288. For a team that is known for grinding out at bats and always being able to take ball four, Aviles may become a black sheep.
All this being said, the guy is versatile. His ability to play any infield position and even right field will surely prove valuable as the season progresses. That being said, you should never sacrifice quality for versatility and that may prove to be what Cherington has done. Mike Aviles can be a solid player, he has proven it before. Don’t expect too much from him though. It would be a surprise to ever see him reach the 4 WAR mark again, but 2 is certainly not out of the question, and that would probably be enough until the front office can find the long term solution.
Speaking of long term solutions, let’s talk Nick Punto because he is exactly the type of player that makes you want to look even harder for one. That’s probably too harsh. After all, the last time he had more than 188 plate appearances in a season (2009) he was worth 1.8 WAR. After just getting done saying that 2 WAR would be acceptable from Aviles, it’s hard to knock Punto. Some facts have to be brought to light though. The last time he hit more than 2 home runs in a season was 2005. His career K% is 16.3. He has hit for an average above .289 just once (in a season with more than 200 plate appearances) only once in his eleven year career. To put it simply, there’s not too much to like about Nick Punto.
He does have two strengths: his defense and his eye at the plate. His fielding value has been negative only once, and his career 10.2 BB% is solid. Granted, his career OBP is only .325, but that’s not bad considering his career average is .249. Not to mention, he has a world series ring. He started for the world series champions, and that’s more than anyone on the Red Sox can say right now. Intangibles are impossible to measure and always overhyped, but Punto is one of those guys who “plays the game right”. He does all the simple things correctly, and while he may not net you the game winning home run, he won’t cost you it with an error or dumb base running play. It’s not worth much, but it had to at least be mentioned.
Bobby Valentine has commented multiple times that he does not want to have a platoon situation at short. Honestly, it’s hard to imagine any other scenario playing out. Coincidentally, the two seem to excel at everything the other doesn’t. Aviles hits for decent average, has a little power, but struggles on defense, and can’t take a walk to save his life. Meanwhile, Punto has a great eye at the plate, and plays stellar defense, but has absolutely no power, doesn’t hit for average, and strikes out far too often. If they could be combined into one player you’d have a pretty decent player, one pretty comparable to, well, to Marco Scutaro. If I had to make a choice today I’d take Aviles as the starter, but it will be interesting to see how spring training plays out. A platoon between the two would not be the worst thing in the world. It’s not ideal, that’s for sure, but it shouldn’t sink the team. Shouldn’t being the key word there.