'Daniel Bard' photo (c) 2011, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/We’ve heard it a million times and we’ll surely hear it another million. Spring stats might as well be thrown out the window.  Of course I’ll tell those same writers/reports/commentators if you’re only looking at one month of data (like say September) you can do the same thing.  The truth is March stats are nearly meaningless and reading to much into them is dangerous. Even some of my favorite numbers like strikeout rate and strikeouts per walk are of a sample size much to small to read in to. Add in the potential for significant batters from Triple-A level talent (or lower) and you have a major case of uninformative data.

The best uses for spring training time is to test health, new pitches, plate approach, defensive positioning, pitch velocity, etc. You can’t tell what hitter is better or which pitcher is your #2. The data and talent is much to variable for any major judgement. If you truly believe the Mike Aviles and Nick Punto rotation will be decided based on the month of March you’re letting the hype get to you.

There are plenty of teams who have made these choices based on limited spring data, but these are the same teams that would have given up on Dustin Pedroia after April in 2007. If the rookie wasn’t ready in Triple-A last year there is no reason to believe March is enough to prove he is ready now.

So what can we get out of this month of baseball? The important things remain for pitchers. You don’t want to see someone walking every batter and unable to get swing and misses, but don’t forget the effect of developing new pitches or working on locations.

Based on what we know, it’s fair to suspect Daniel Bard has the number four spot unless injured or he just falls apart. We can use him as an example though before we look at the number five spot. Bard has pitched five innings so far in two games and has been so-so in the numbers, outside of no runs against of course. His K/BB stands at 1 and he has 3 strikeouts so far.

This is where we have to read the reports to get the information that can tell us more. In his start on Saturday* Bard threw 49 pitches and of those 30 were recorded as strikes. A strike rate of 61 percent is a good sign along with his usage of 12 change ups, according to his estimate. That seems very high at 24 percent compared to a pitch he barely ever used previously. This is why we can’t expect control and strikeouts to show immediately for Bard.

*On a side note the bottom of that article has Bobby Valentine claiming he wishes all pitchers would throw out of the stretch all the time. Since the average pitcher has a K/BB about 0.5 to 0.75 lower in the stretch I cringed as I read it.

Spring time involves a lot of reading for fans and a lot of scouting for teams. That begs the question have we seen anything that might tell us who the lead for the last spot in the rotation might be?

There hasn’t been enough to look at Aaron Cook yet, so I’m going to just look at Vicente Padilla, Alfredo Aceves and Felix Doubront. Each has appeared in at least two games and has five or more innings pitched. Based purely on the numbers it would be Aceves, but Padilla surely earned some fans after throwing three hitless innings on Wednesday against the New York Yankees. Doubront did well in that game also by not allowing a run on two hits.

If you go back to the Red Sox article I posted earlier you’ll see some very vague talk about Aceves. The team loves his flexibility and his value to the team, but are quick to include him, Padilla and Doubront as potential starters or relievers. This was reiterated by Ben Cherington’s comments Wednesday in the Globe “Alfredo Aceves could end up back in the bullpen.”

When projecting who earns the number five spot it also pays to look at age and things like minor league options. Doubront is all out of options and would surely be claimed if he was sent to the minors. This might at least be his ticket to break camp with the team if Padilla or Cook are unable to display they are clearly better options.

With Cook and Padilla on minor league deals they don’t have that same option keeping them in the majors. Cook does have an opt out date around May 1st, but that gives him time to prove his ability in Pawtucket. The choice right now would probably be between Doubront and Padilla if Aceves is being labeled for the pen. The team also can go for a few starts without a number five to start the season while using Aceves and Doubront as long relief.

My pick right now is Doubront with Aceves in the pen and Padilla in the pen or minors.  This is obviously going to change as more games are played and Cook becomes involved.  Who would you pick for the number five right now?