Every Thursday, before our morning meeting at the place of my employment, I present about one minute worth of baseball stats and/or facts. This past Thursday, I informed my co-workers that it was the Birthday of retired 22-year MLB veteran Harold Baines and current Rex Sox third baseman, the Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis. When I said that Youk had turned 33 years old, I got two immediate and completely different reactions. One co-worker said, “He’s already 33?” which was quickly followed by another co-worker’s reaction, “He’s only 33?”
The two responses got me thinking about the general perception of Kevin Youkilis. When I scoured the numbers, the first thing that I noticed was that Youk has never played in over 147 games in any of his big league seasons and he hasn’t played in over 136 games since 2009. However, each season Youk continued to put up tremendously valuable numbers, resulting in roughly 4-6 fWAR each season since 2008. Even last season, while playing through injuries, Youk posted a .373 OBP and .202 ISO.
Now, at age 33, and with an expensive option on his contract for 2013 ($13M), the question becomes: Is Youk a young 33 with plenty of productive seasons left in him, or is he an old 33 with a body that will continually break down and cause an early decline?
Earlier in his career, Youk had been a tremendous asset defensively at first base, posting an ultimate zone rating (UZR) between roughly 5-8 from 2007 through 2010. However, his defensive rating fell off in 2010 to 0.9 and then, mostly due to injury and a position switch back to the hot corner, into negative territory last season (-1.3). Though never considered a very agile fielder, Youk still succeded with excellent hands, good footwork, and a tremendous knowledge of the many different situations that could arise during any given moment of a game. Moving to third, however, changed everything. At third, one needs to charge in on soft grounders and bunts and throw the ball to first base on the run with quickness and accuracy. Obviously, the throw from third to first, and even the throw that starts a double play, is a big change from throws that are routinely made playing first base. That extra effort needed to play third seemed to take it’s toll on Youk last season.
The thing about Youk’s age is that he didn’t become a full-time big leaguer until he was 27, so despite being 33, he only has six full seasons of major league duty notched on his belt. That fact might give off the perception that he is actually younger than he is. In reality, he’s a bulky 33-year-old with a lengthy rap sheet of injuries, both big and small.
To help Youk avoid an early decline, the best scenario is to shift him to DH, which is currently occupied by David Ortiz. Unless Ortiz gets hurt, or forgets how to hit lefties again, Youk won’t see much time at that potision until next season at the earliest. Sports Illustrated’s Will Carroll labeled Youk as a “red light” in his 2012 Team Health Reports, so clearly there is much to be concerned about in terms of his ability to stay on the field for more than 120 games.
No matter his age or defensive ability, Youk has two skills that shouldn’t diminish early: power and plate discipline. If he can move to DH next year, he should be worth the $13M team option, but any long-term deal after will surely be approached with caution.