'Josh Beckett' photo (c) 2011, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/Well, it’s Opening Day–again!  Today, the Red Sox will open their doors for the 101st home opener in Fenway Park’s history. For some reason, this year’s opener feels more important than in years past. No, there isn’t any panic eminating from this writer, but I can definitely feel the sense of urgency. After last year’s debacle, a 1-5 start was the last thing the Red Sox wanted or needed. Today, they hope to turn their performance around with Josh Beckett on the mound.

As I mentioned in Wednesday’s column, Beckett had an incredibly ugly appearance last Saturday that resulted in him allowing five home runs to a powerful Detroit Tigers offense. So what happened to Beckett that caused him to struggle so mightily?  What can we expect in today’s start?

What Went Wrong?

While this might sound strange, Beckett probably threw too many strikes.  Right now many of you are probably thinking, “How can a pitcher throw too many strikes?  That’s his job.”  You’d be right–sort of.  A pitcher does need to throw strikes.  If a pitcher is consistently wild and none of his pitches come anywhere near to cross the plate, hitters will eventually make the adjustment and stop swinging.  That said, good pitchers not only throw strikes, but they get hitters to create strikes by swinging at pitches outside of the zone.  Beckett didn’t do that in his start last Saturday–or if he did, his pitches weren’t far enough outside of the zone, and he was getting hammered as a result.

According to Brooks Baseball, Beckett’s two biggest problem pitches on Saturday were his sinker (SI) and changeup (CH).  Sinkers are known (and this will shock you) for their ability to induce ground balls due the pitch’s ability to sink as it reaches the plate.  Mastery of this pitch is one of the reasons pitchers like Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, and Jake Westbrook (among others) have had so much success inducing groundballs over the years. Not surprisingly, the biggest benefit to throwing this pitch is that good ones coax groundballs that can’t be hit out of the ballpark. In Beckett’s last start, he didn’t have a good sinker, and it resulted in three of them (the only three fly balls he allowed with the pitch) being deposited into the outfield seats at Comerica Park.  The only other sinker that was put into play by the Tigers was a line drive.  That pretty much tells you all you need to know about his success with that pitch in his first start.

Beckett’s change-up was an incredibly valuable pitch for him in 2011.  According to Fangraphs pitch f/x pitch value charts, it was valued at 1.75 linear weight runs (LWR) per 100 pitches (7.2 LWR overall), which was good for 10th among all pitchers.  On Satuday, his change-up was in less than optimal condition, and subsequently got hammered; it was valued at an astonishing -3.5 LWR.  The biggest reason he struggled so mightily with the pitch is that he wasn’t fooling anyone.  He threw 22 change-ups on Saturday, 63.6% for strikes.  Hitters swung at the pitch (ta da!) 63.6% of the time, and only whiffed once.  Needless to say, that’s not exactly a winning combination.  Further complicating Beckett’s change-up issues is that the velocity difference between his fastball and change-up was roughly 3 MPH, as opposed to the 5 MPH differential he had last season.  With his change-up catching so much of the plate, it probably looked more like a very hittable upper 80s fastball than an effective “change-of-pace” pitch.

What Should We Expect in Today’s Start?

Considering his poor performance this past Saturday and the fact his right wrist was recently examined, its tough to say how he’ll perform this afternoon against the Rays.  Regardless of any lingering issues with his wrist, Beckett will need to see an uptick in his fastball velocity while establishing better pitch location.  The Rays have a pretty formidable offense that will take pitches and draw walks.  (They’re third in both walks and OBP through six games.)  They also haven’t been striking out much this season (fourth in the AL), so he’ll probably need to look more at coaxing ground balls and pop-ups on “pitcher’s pitches” rather than going after strikeouts.  Look for Beckett to try to establish his cutter and four seamer early in hopes of establishing counts in his favor.  Once he does, he’ll need to expand the zone to induce weak contact and whiffs.