Giancarlo Stanton (Photo: Samara Pearlstein)

The Boston Red Sox (29-31), having been swept over the weekend by the Washington Nationals, take the show on the road for a three-game skein against the Miami Marlins (31-29). The Marlins are on a cold streak, having lost their last six games in a row. And the Red Sox are also on a cold streak, having lost six of their last seven. Wait, don’t walk away! These are good teams! Really!

STARTING PITCHERSJosh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and Ricky Nolasco

Josh Johnson (facing Josh Beckett in Monday’s opener) is no longer untouchable but he has been unlucky in 2012. Johnson’s fastball, which averaged 94.7 MPH just two seasons ago, now averages 93 MPH. Also notable is that this season, Johnson has thrown fewer two-seam fastballs this year (5.7% vs. 14.5% last year) and more curveballs (11.4% in 2012, 8.2% in 2011) and changeups (12.1% in 2012, 8.7% in 2011). Johnson’s BABIP is a frightfully unlucky .370, and his ERA of 4.56 is over a run and a half higher than his FIP (2.91), and a run higher than his xFIP (3.43) and SIERA (3.53). If Johnson can improve on a solid but unspectacular 2.68 K/BB ratio, he could be in for a rebound in the second half.

Mark Buehrle (against Clay Buchholz on Tuesday) has always confused me. How is he a consistently good pitcher? His K/BB ratio has never been that high (although it is over 3 this season – 3.25 – for the first time in his career). He doesn’t strike out many, but he also doesn’t walk too many. His fastball isn’t fast (mid-80s in his career, averaging 83.0 this year). His FIP is never way too far away from his ERA to be statistically significant. His SIERA is always in the mid 4s. Location, pitch selection and pace – that’s Buehrle’s game and it plays well.

Ricky Nolasco (versus Felix Doubront in Wednesday’s finale) is on a worrying downward trajectory. His fastball is getting slower, down to an 89.7MPH average this season. His FIP (4.25) and SIERA (4.34) are over 4 for the first time in his career. He’s striking out too few batters (a career low of 5.45 per nine) and walking too many (2.66 per nine, his highest since 2007). These aren’t good signs for Nolasco.

EXPECTED LINEUP

1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Hanley Ramirez, 3B
4. Giancarlo Stanton, RF
5. Logan Morrison, LF
6. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
7. Chris Coghlan, CF
8. John Buck, C
9. pitcher’s spot

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

In the last two weeks, Jose Reyes (.320/.382/.480, .379 wOBA, 138 wRC+), Hanley Ramirez (.310/.400/.667, .428 wOBA, 170 wRC+) and Giancarlo Stanton (.302/.400/.605, .432 wOBA, 173 wRC+) have hit very well, while Justin Ruggiano (.444/.524/1.000, .571 wOBA, 267 wRC+) and Donovan Solano (.455/.500/.636, .487 wOBA, 211 wRC+) have also hit well in limited action. On the cold side in the last two weeks are Omar Infante (.196/.196/.255, .195 wOBA, 13 wRC+), Chris Coghlan (.179/.286/.179, .225 wOBA, 33 wRC+) and John Buck (.167/.286/.200, .222 wOBA, 31 wRC+). In the bullpen, Randy Choate (0.49 ERA/2.67 FIP/3.37 xFIP) and Steve Cishek (2.10 ERA/3.28 FIP/4.01 xFIP) are having excellent seasons, while Heath Bell (6.35 ERA/4.24 FIP/5.25 xFIP, .346 BABIP) is pitching slightly better than his terrible traditional statistics would indicate, although still not that great for a free agent signing.

INJURIES

RHP Jose Ceda (Tommy John surgery) is out for the year. CF Emilio Bonifacio (left thumb surgery) is on the 15-day DL. That’s it?

AND WHAT ABOUT THE RED SOX?

One step forward, two steps back. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, and this weekend’s sweep at the hands of the rising Washington Nationals showed the difference between a young and exciting team and an older and stagnant one. In the last two weeks, David Ortiz (.319/.418/.681, .452 wOBA, 187 wRC+), Daniel Nava (.311/.404/.489, .393 wOBA, 147 wRC+) and Ryan Sweeney (.294/.368/.382, .334 wOBA, 106 wRC+) are hitting well while Dustin Pedroia (.148/.226/.148, .181 wOBA, 0 wRC+) and Kevin Youkilis (.195/.283/.341, .279 wOBA, 68 wRC+) need to get it going. Clay Buchholz (1.06 ERA/4.11 FIP/4.10 xFIP) has pitched well in the last two weeks but Felix Doubront (5.51 ERA/5.44 FIP/2.86 xFIP) took a step backward. Daisuke Matsuzaka had an encouraging start on Saturday, striking out eight and walking one while giving up 5 hits, but was undone by a bad fourth inning (and wouldn’t you know it, the number 4 is considered unlucky in Japanese culture as the word for four (shi) is also the word for death). In the pen, Franklin Morales (1.13 ERA/3.68 FIP/4.02 xFIP) and Vicente Padilla (0.00 ERA/3.05 FIP/4.96 xFIP) pitched very well in the last two weeks while Alfredo Aceves (5.63 ERA/3.30 FIP/2.75 xFIP) had a bad, if unlucky, fortnight.

SUMMARY

With some better pitching performances, the Marlins may put a scare into the Washington Nationals and challenge for the NL East crown. In the meantime, maybe Papi can put a few dents into the Home Run Sculpture in center field in the brand new Marlins Park.

Categories: Alfredo Aceves Boston Red Sox Chris Coghlan Clay Buchholz Daisuke Matsuzaka Daniel Nava David Ortiz Donovan Solano Dustin Pedroia Emilio Bonifacio Felix Doubront Franklin Morales Gaby Sanchez Giancarlo Stanton Hanley Ramirez Heath Bell John Buck Jose Ceda Jose Reyes Josh Beckett Josh Johnson Justin Ruggiano Kevin Youkilis Logan Morrison Mark Buehrle Miami Marlins Omar Infante Randy Choate Ricky Nolasco Ryan Sweeney Steve Cishek Vicente Padilla Washington Nationals

Scott Candage is a long-time Red Sox fan. He recently came in third in the 127th annual Upperclass Twit of the Year competition. His best friend is a tree and he is a stockbroker in his spare time.

2 Responses to “The Advanced Scout – Miami Marlins” Subscribe

  1. Danny June 11, 2012 at 2:53 PM #

    I don't think people are giving Josh Johnson enough slack coming off that injury. He's clearly still getting his groove back, although he's been great through his last six starts.

  2. Travis June 11, 2012 at 3:09 PM #

    How can you say that Buchholz has pitched well but Doubront took a step back when Buchholz had a 4.10 xFIP compared to Doubront's 2.86 xFIP? Similarly, Morales and Padilla have significantly higher FIP and xFIP numbers than their ERA the past two weeks while Aceves has a much higher ERA than his FIP/xFIP. To me, it appears simply that Buchholz, Morales, and Padilla have been lucky the past two weeks whereas Doubront and Aceves have been getting some bad bounces of late.