Nick Cafardo filed a more traditional column this week, and his opinions are kept to a minimum. Of course, when we discover his opinion, it is unsubstantiated and unsupported. Journalism, people!
As always, BOLD is Cafardo, standard text is me.
A running joke through spring training was, who will win more games: Francona’s Indians or John Farrell’s Red Sox?
It will be an interesting subplot.
Francona is king, but if the Indians win more games than the Red Sox, Farrell will probably be looking for a job as an Athletic Director in the Northeast Conference, if you know what I am saying.
Apropos of something
That general manager Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy were signed through the 2016 season by Giants ownership should come as no surprise. They deserve it after winning two World Series championships in three years.
“It’s a tribute to our entire organization,” Sabean said. “We have hard-working people here who know baseball and know what our manager needs to put together the best team possible.
“Bruce does an incredible job getting our guys ready to play baseball on a daily basis. We have people out in the field scouting and recognizing top players and we have a farm system that keeps producing players for our major league team.
“But every year is different. There are no guarantees. In 2011, we had some injuries to deal with, especially to Buster Posey], that set us back and we weren’t able to overcome that. We learned a lot from that. So you have to keep reinventing yourself and keep working hard to stay a step ahead.”
Shortly after securing a new deal for himself, Sabean finished off a nine-year, $167 million extension for Posey.
Sabean is never completely satisfied with the team he starts the season with. He always fears there’s not enough depth to withstand those injuries, yet he always seems to adjust as the season goes on.
Three years ago, he acquired Cody Ross on a waiver deal from the Marlins and Ross carried the Giants to a World Series win. Last season, he acquired Marco Scutaro from the Rockies, and Scutaro was red-hot in the second half of the season and the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP award.
Sabean is an “old school” GM who relies on scouting more than statistical data, though he has a department in baseball operations for such things. As team chemistry is a theme of our preview section in the Globe, it’s worth saying that the Giants are the epitome of chemistry, from the front office down.
The worst part of Giants winning two World Series in three years is the over the top praise for a GM who has hit a few home runs anyone could have hit (Posey, Lincecum) and couple of good ones (Sandoval, Cain, and Bumgarner) and a couple of lucky fliers (Vogelsong, Pagan). Other than that, their process is a mess. I don’t want to hear how brilliant they are when the team spends the season incapable of scoring against a weak division, then gets hot in October. That, my friends, is the crap shoot that is playoffs.
Then again, for all the Hunter Pence high school pep rally shenanigans and Barry Zito signings…they have won two of three, so what do I know?
Apropos of nothing
1. If you’re in New York Tuesday between 6-8 p.m., stop by Foley’s at 18 W 33rd Street (between 5th and 6th Avenues, across from the Empire State Building), where Dan Shaughnessy will sign copies of “Francona: The Red Sox Years.”
Probably a huge market in New York for a book by CHB about the best era in Red Sox history!
2. I wonder, did the Red Sox let the wrong guy go in Lyle Overbay?
Why, because he is a Yankee now? Because he was so amazing during Spring Training (hint:he wasn’t)? Because he can also play left, like Carp or Nava (he can’t)? Because he has been so good the last few years (he hasn’t been)? WHY? A hunch?
3. The Red Sox seem to have younger pitching depth with Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, and Rubby De La Rosa.
What is with the word seem, here? He assumes they may not be good or ready? Perhaps that is the case, but depth does not presume effectiveness, it names multiple viable options. They have that to an infinite degree more than last year.
4. The Orioles may be the most confident team in the AL, and with good reason. They believe they’ll get better as their younger core veterans get a little bit older, and because the very impressive Kevin Gausman is likely to be added to the rotation at some point.
But do they have talent to back up the confidence? They were lucky, last year, to have such a remarkable record in close and late games as well as one run games. This is well documented. We’ll see how confident they are when they regress to the mean
and fight the Yankees for last place. You heard it here…well, not first…but it is on record.
5. Andy Pettitte issued a very confident declaration when he said, “I expect us to win the division. Until somebody knocks us off, we’re the champs of that division. We came four games away from going to the World Series last year; that’s a good year. We have a lot of pieces coming back and hopefully we can do what we want to do, and that’s getting to the World Series.”
Last year: not a barometer for this year. Someone needs to count the amount of replacement level players in the Yankee lineup these days.
6. Once again, most teams sent their top prospects back to the minors. They apparently didn’t learn from the Angels’ mistake last season when they didn’t start Mike Trout in the big leagues. That likely cost them the division, as they got off to a 6-14 start. The Red Sox are doing the right thing with Jackie Bradley Jr.
We shall see how Cafardo feels about this in 2018 when Trout is still with the Angels. Also, the Nationals made the playoffs just fine with Bryce Harper missing more time than Trout. Can we take a more global view here?
Also -we all love JBJ, but he is no Mike Trout.
7. AL predictions: MVP: Miguel Cabrera. Cy Young: Josh Johnson. Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers. Manager of the Year:John Gibbons. Batting champion: Cabrera. Comeback Player: Victor Martinez.
Nice projections. None of them are egregious. I like the sneaky pick of Josh Johnson. If he can stay healthy and adjust to the AL, he could indeed be CY worthy. Of course, that is a lot of if for a league that sports Justin Verlander.
8. When you see the tireless work scouts do — in spring training especially, but all season as well — you continue to have a great appreciation for them. And you realize that some of these fine men should be inducted into the Hall ofFame.
Ummmmmmmmmmmmm….ok.
Updates on nine
1. Bruce Rondon, RP, Tigers — After all the hype about him being their
closer, he was returned to minor league camp, leaving Joaquin Benoit the man. Were the Tigers a tad short-sighted or stubborn? Here’s the case made by John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press: “Washington: With closer Drew Storen sidelined by elbow surgery, set-up man Tyler Clippard[one career save] stepped in as closer. He recorded 32
saves. Cincinnati: Closer Ryan Madson was lost for the season in spring training with a torn ligament in his elbow. In late May, young flame-thrower Aroldis Chapman (one career save) took over as closer. From late June through early September, he converted 27 straight save opportunities. He finished the season with 38 saves. San
Francisco: With closer Brian Wilson lost for the season with elbow surgery, the Giants got 21 saves by midseason from Santiago Casilla, a veteran set-up man. Down the stretch, Sergio Romo, who had three career saves, became the closer. He went 9 for 9 in save chances to finish the regular season. In his three saves against the Tigers in the World Series, he didn’t allow a runner.”
Does Nick really not understand the closer position? It has high turnover, and there are few long term guarantees (or contracts for that matter). Bullpens fluctuate from year to year, and the case made by John Lowe is sound.
Where has Nick been?
2. Brian Wilson, RP, free agent — Here’s a guy the Tigers might be able to pluck from the mix when he’s ready. According to a National League GM, “He won’t let anyone look at him until he’s completely ready to go. I think everyone is anxious to see when that time comes, because if he gets it back to what he used to be, he’s
going to help someone immediately down the stretch of a pennant race.” And don’t rule out a return to the Giants.
Brian Wilson – exhibit number one of closer peaks and bullpen fluctuation.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP, Indians — There’s hope that he can get his act together at Columbus and help the Indians. “He’s been so up and down for the past few years and mostly down,” said one talent evaluator. “But you can see when he’s really aggressive to the plate and coming at hitters, he still has pretty good stuff. Part of him still has the nibbling mind-set, and the other part that he needs to have come out is that he can overpower and fool hitters if he’s aggressive.”
How long has Boston known this?
4. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies — One of my candidates for breakout player. He seems to be figuring it out. Others on my list: Lonnie Chisenhall, Brett Lawrie, Will Middlebrooks, Colby Rasmus, and Justin Smoak.
Why is Nick allowed to write in incomplete sentences?
Do Brett Lawrie or Will Middlebrooks really need to breakout?
5. Alfonso Soriano, LF, Cubs — When will someone deal for him? Funny thing is, Soriano loves playing for the Cubs, and it showed with his intensity in spring training and leading the way for the younger players. “We’ve played with emotion,” said Soriano. “All of those guys are young and they’re passionate. We’re young, but we have so much talent.”
He. Is. Not. Good. Anymore.
That is why no one wants to pay more than $10million for him.
6. Carlos Zambrano, RHP, free agent — One of those intriguing guys still out there. He had an unsuccessful audition in the World Baseball Classic (3⅔ innings, 2 runs) for Venezuela. Zambrano, 132-91 lifetime with a 3.66 ERA, is only 31 years old. But his reputation as a bad guy in the clubhouse, coupled with his downward-trending performance, have kept teams away. “You’ve got to be up for what he brings,” said an NL GM. “Not saying the guy hasn’t been good in his career because he has, but when things go bad, he has a rap sheet that shows how he reacts, and that’s hard to
overcome.”
#rapsheet
7. Carl Pavano, RHP, free agent — The serious spleen injury in January that nearly cost him his life — he fell at his Vermont home while shoveling snow — has put baseball in the distant future, if it’s there at all. Pavano lost 6½ liters of blood and faces a long recovery.
Ok…that is depressing, even for Carl Pavano.
8. Brian Butterfield, coach, Red Sox — Yes, it was Butterfield who influenced Derek Jeter’s baseball career, probably more than anyone. When Butterfield was in the Yankees organization, he took a 19-year-old Jeter who had made 56 errors at Greensboro in 1993 and worked with him every day for 40 days in instructional league. “He had great hands but he didn’t know what to do with them,” said Butterfield. “Tremendous raw talent, so we broke it down for him. We worked him pretty hard.” Jeter reduced his errors to 25 in 1994 and never looked back.
“He had great hands but he didn’t know what to do with them” is now my favorite Derek Jeter scouting report ever. This even beats the famous Tim McCarver scouting report declaring him to have “calm eyes,” which of course FireJoeMorgan.com made famous.
9. John Henry, owner, Red Sox (left) — According to Forbes, the Sox are valued at $1.3 billion, which is third among baseball teams, behind the Yankees ($2.3billion) and Dodgers ($1.6 billion). Asked what he thought of the value placed on his team, Henry texted, “Low.”
John Henry – ever the businessman.
BTW – he is not selling the team, despite his concern over the valuation of Forbes over his prized asset.
Extra innings
From the Bill Chuck files: “R.A. Dickey allowed 23 0-and-2 hits last season, the most in the majors. Ryan Dempster only allowed five.” Also, “Last season, major league batters averaged .298 against fastballs. David Ortiz hit .321 against the fastball, but Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a dreadful .198.” . . . Interesting that, according to Yahoo, the Red Sox were the fourth most-searched team on the website over the last 30 days (the Tigers, Yankees, and Rangers were ahead of them) and that Jackie Bradley Jr. was the second most-searched rookie (behind the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig) . . . Wish Scott Atchison(37) and Eric Gunderson (47) a belated happy birthday
(Friday).
Just yesterday you asked yourself, who is still searching on Yahoo? Now you know the answer is Tiger, Ranger, and Yankee fans.
Credit Steve Schar via flickr
True story, NESN interviewed Nick Cafardo during a recent Spring Training game. He said some people told him he was better than Peter Gammons at putting together the famed Diamond Notes in the Globe. His mother and grandmother are indeed some people.