The Cubs took another big step in their lengthy rebuilding plan yesterday, reportedly signing first baseman Anthony Rizzo to a seven-year, $41 million extension that could keep the 23-year-old in Chicago blue until 2021.

While there is of course some risk involved for the team here, reporters, analysts and fans have been largely supportive of the deal, praising the Cubs for locking up a core young player at a time when fewer and fewer stars are reaching free agency. And even if Rizzo tanks and his best days are behind him (which is unlikely), $41 million over seven years is a loss the Cubs can absorb with ease.

Anthony Rizzo: the one who got away. Photo by Kelly O'Connor, sittingstill.net.

Anthony Rizzo: the one who got away. Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.net.

You can argue that the connection to the Red Sox here is somewhat tenuous, but I disagree. Rizzo used to be a Red Sox prospect. The men who just signed Rizzo to an extension, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, have both played integral parts in Rizzo’s career to this point as well, holding positions in Boston, San Diego and Chicago: the three
organizations in which Rizzo has played.

But in a more abstract way, this deal is important to the Red Sox because it represents something they no longer have: young players worth locking up to long-term deals.

It’s easy to criticize trade that sent Rizzo, Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez in 2010. In some other ways, it’s easy to dismiss it, as the Red Sox have been freed from the burden of A-Gon’s contract. I don’t think either approach is right.

The Red Sox gave Gonzalez a seven-year, $154 million deal before the 2011 season: a potentially disastrous contract given that it’s now at least reasonable to question whether Gonzalez’ best days are behind him. There’s a temptation to say “no harm, no foul” since the Sox are no longer on the hook for that money, and since the talent we received in return for A-Gon – Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa – is pretty remarkable. But you can’t sign players to bad deals and assume you’ll be able to trade them later. Epstein and the Red Sox should not get a pass for the deal.

It’s also easy to shrug the trade off since Kelly hasn’t developed as expected, Fuentes is basically a non-prospect at this point and Rizzo was flipped to the Cubs for Andrew Cashner in what looks like a legendary head-scratcher. But this isn’t right either: Perhaps the Sox knew things about Kelly or Fuentes that led them to view such players as expendable, but without evidence that’s a tough argument to make.

I’m not trying to suggest that the Red Sox should not have pulled the trigger on the A-Gon trade: I loved the move at the time, and I thought A-Gon would be the next great hitter to anchor the Sox lineup. What I am trying to point out, though, is that it’s been quite a while since the Red Sox have developed and retained a young player who looks like he’ll be a difference-maker for a long time, and that is not a good thing.

The Red Sox do not currently have a player of Rizzo’s caliber to whom offering a Rizzo-like extension is even close to reasonable. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Will Middlebrooks are the only offensive starters who are home grown, and the first two are not at analogous points in their careers with Rizzo. Pedroia once signed a team-friendly long-term deal, and we’ve been reaping the rewards ever since. Ellsbury did not, and it’s likely we’ll need to see him play for someone else in 2014. Middlebrooks is the closest thing the Sox have to a Rizzo-like player, but we need to see if he can make adjustments before cementing him as a big part of Boston’s future.

Deals of this nature for pitchers are even riskier than for their position-playing counterparts, but the Red Sox don’t have a strong fit there either. FelixDoubront is in some ways the pitcher equivalent of WMB – talented but clearly flawed – and isn’t worth the gamble. The other four starters in Boston’s rotation are older, and Webster hasn’t done enough to prove he should stick in the rotation, never mind deserve an extension. Your mind might jump to the likes of Junichi Tazawa or Andrew Bailey, but long extensions for relievers of any kind – never mind injury prone or non-elite ones – are never a good idea.

If we revisit this conversation in a year, we could be looking at a few more reasonable candidates – I’m looking at you, Xander, and you, Jackie – but we’re getting ahead of ourselves there.

The Red Sox have a ton of money to play with after dealing A-Gon, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett (and Nick Punto) to the Dodgers last season, but we’ll likely find ourselves in a similar hole if we continue to use all that cash on older free agents. I have no problem with the strategy the Sox took this offseason, as they didn’t give out any deals that compromise the long term financial stability of the organization. But such an approach can only work for so long.

We’re getting close to having a crop of young players worth locking up for a long time again, and breaking up that crop is a mistake. My hope is that Rizzo’s deal can serve as a reminder of that to those who are growing impatient.

Categories: Adrian Gonzalez Allen Webster Andrew Cashner Anthony Rizzo Carl Crawford Casey Kelly Chicago Cubs Dustin Pedroia Felix Doubront Jackie Bradley Jacoby Ellsbury Jed Hoyer Josh Beckett Junichi Tazawa Los Angeles Dodgers Reymond Fuentes Rubby de la Rosa Theo Epstein Will Middlebrooks Xander Bogearts

Ben is a graduate of Boston University with a degree in journalism and a love of all things Red Sox and minor league baseball. He has experience writing for Baseball Prospectus, NESN, RotoExperts, BU Today and other sites, and typically serves as an in-house MiLB writer. An editor for a business website by day, Ben likes to grill, sample IPAs and re-read Faulkner novels by night. He is an unabashed J.D. Drew apologist with a deep-seated fear of middle relievers. Follow Ben on Twitter here.

12 Responses to “The Anthony Rizzo Extension: What Could Have Been” Subscribe

  1. Chip Buck May 13, 2013 at 12:31 PM #

    Very well put, Ben. I don’t lament Rizzo being traded for A-Gon. It was absolutely the right move at the time. Really, it was the only move. Given A-Gon’s track record and future projections, everyone agrees the price was more than adequate.

    Most rational people saw Rizzo as a nice prospect who would fall somewhere between Mark Grace and Paul Konerko. A nice, useful player, but not a superstar hitter. Now, it seems he’s much more than that. It’s a shame he’s in a Cubs uniform, but it is what it is.

    I think we’re going to see some really interesting impact hitters come up over the next few years. You already mentioned Bogearts and Bradley, but I’d also add Cecchini to the list. I really became interested in him last year when he was blasting doubles all over the Sally and stealing bases at a highly efficient rate. This season, he’s exceeded expectations. I think he’s going to be a stud, and I won’t be surprised if he’s playing third base for the Red Sox in 2015 or 2016 as opposed to WMB. Nothing against WMB, but Cecchini is a more compete hitter.

    • Ben Carsley May 13, 2013 at 2:32 PM #

      Thanks Chip. It's funny that you mention Konerko, because that's sort of the comp I keep returning to for Rizzo in my head.

      I like Cecchini too, but I'm not ready to give up on WMB and Cecchini is also a year-or-so behind X and JBJ, as you alluded to. But I think we're in agreement here re: young players and extensions.

  2. Darryl Johnston May 13, 2013 at 1:52 PM #

    test

  3. Darryl Johnston May 13, 2013 at 2:01 PM #

    Good article. I always hesitate though to say "such-and-such a prospect" would pan out this way if he were still in Boston. I always feel like development is circumstantial to the environment and the person, so who knows? Rizzo looks like a real budding power hitter who can hit .275 but would that mean it would translate to Fenway? Maybe. But Boston is a different place and sometimes players don't work out here. I thinkthat trade was the right thing to do at the time but it turned out Gonzo didn't really assimilate very well and of course neither did Carl Crawford. I'd like to think Rizzo would, but i don'tr know.

    It is what it is. Maybe he would have been Mo Vaughn. Or maybe Lars Anderson.

    • Ben Carsley May 13, 2013 at 2:28 PM #

      Thanks, Daryl. Your point is well taken, and it can go the other way too. The Padres have seen their crop of young pitching devastated by arm injures recently. Casey Kelly is viewed by some as a lost cause now, but who's to say he doesn't get injured if he stays in the Sox' system? When healthy, his upside and floor are actually pretty comparable to Webster's so maybe that part of the A-Gon trade triangle is a wash.

      I get where you're coming from, though, and you're correct. Organizational development is certainly a huge wildcard in how these guys will progress. It's just one that's really tough to quantify.

  4. Darryl Johnston May 13, 2013 at 4:17 PM #

    Love WMB too but his plate approach is so poor. That BB/K ratio is bad. But when does make contact, the kid can rake!

    • Mike May 14, 2013 at 12:34 AM #

      Yeah but he's still 24, so we can still hope that he'll improve his plate discipline. Without it, though, he'll be a limited player, unfortunately.

  5. Gerry May 14, 2013 at 2:25 AM #

    Cecchini may be at 3B, or at 1B. WMB is developing well as a defender in his first full season in the Majors. I see no reason why, at his age and level of experience, that his bat won't also develop as he adjusts and matures. Both WMB and Cechhini seem to be keepers worthy of long term extensions. And, frustrating as he has been, it's much too early to give up on Doubront, even if this turns into a lost season and he eventually winds up as closer. Age, talent, experience, maturity, Nieves, Pedro. We can be certain his offseason workouts will be tightly scripted monitored, and his focus will improve to where he may also be worthy of a contract, or a trade worh making.

  6. JiminNC May 14, 2013 at 8:04 AM #

    I'm surprised you don't mention Beltre or Youkilis. If we had passed on the trade and re-signed Beltre (who has hit .304.342.550.892 for Texas with GG defense) and kept Youk at 1b, we would have been much better off, especially if staying at 1b would have helped Youk stay healthy until Rizzo was ready.

  7. JiminNC May 14, 2013 at 8:06 AM #

    And as for Pedroia, who has not hit for power since hurting his hand in a head-first slide opening day: no long-term contracts for players dumb enough to slide head-first.

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