Starting this season, the Orioles will be one of the more interesting teams in the division for what should be the better part of the decade. The top of the minors are awash with upper echelon pitching prospects (Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta) to go along with plenty of reinforcements in the low minors. The lineup card is stocked with building blocks that are either locked up long-term (Nick Markakis) or have just started their arbitration clock (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold).
While the 2010 season may not be the year of the Oriole, it will be a significant landmark in the progress of the club. The team is not expected to “compete” in the classical sense, in that they will still likely finish either fourth or fifth behind the Sox, Rays, and Yanks. Yet, the team could, with a couple of breaks in the right direction, finish with a .500 record – the first time Baltimore has done so since 1997.
Now, on to the sleepers:
C Matt Wieters: This one should come as no surprise. Coming into 2009, Wieters was at the top of nearly every meaningful prospect list known to man. Switch-hitting catchers with the plate discipline, power, AND defensive capabilities of a Matt Wieters come around once in a generation. Accordingly, he was expected to perform much better than he ultimately did, .288/.340/.412. Even the perennially underwhelming and modest PECOTA projections pegged Wieters to hit 30 home runs…
In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?
10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.
One of the more interesting names in Red Sox history with an origin from his fathers first name turned backwards and his last name is a combination of his parents last names. He was not only an elite athlete, but with a 4.0 GPA in high school and majored in business management at Georgia Tech. He was then drafted 12th overall by the Boston Red Sox in 1994 with the 12th overall pick.
After three years in the minors he made his first full season in 1997 with the Red Sox. He led the league in AB, hits and triples. He won the rookie of the year award and was voted 8th in the MVP award voting. His season would only be a taste of what was to coma as over the next 6 seasons he would total 40.6 WAR according to Sean Smith’s WAR calculations.
This amazing 7 year span even includes his forgettable 2001 season including the Sports Illustrated cover, a wrist injury and only 21 games played. That’s how great he really was and comparing him to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez he was right in the middle with Rodriguez totaling 54 WAR in his first seven full years and Jeter with 35.1.
While in Boston he was often known for his first pitch swings and infield pop ups, but that never hurt his production. He was not much for taking walks with a career BB% of 6.6%, but much like Dustin Pedroia he could hit most anything around the plate. He only struck out 10% of the time on average.
Clay Buchholz is poised to take another step forward this year as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. He spent much of the first half of 2009 dominating Triple-A competition, and finally got his shot when Tim Wakefield experienced injury problems most of the second half.
His “emergence” wasn’t much of a surprise despite his godawful 6.75 ERA in 15 starts and one relief appearance during 2008, as his Fielding Independent Pitching was 4.69 and xFIP (FIP with home runs normalized to park and league data) 4.28 over 76 innings. Those respective FIPs were 4.69 and 4.09, respectively, covering 92 innings in 2009 with a 4.21 ERA all told.
An aspect to Buchholz’s game I don’t think has been made enough of, however, is his inability to pitch against left-handers. Okay, inability is a bit strong, so let’s go clear deficiency compared to right-handed batters.
Joba Chamberlain finally got his full season to start and things didn’t turn out as the Yankees had hoped. His splits crashed and he wasn’t the same pitcher. At the same time Phil Hughes established himself in the bullpen after being unable to stay healthy in the starting role.
In the minors Chamberlain had an elite strikeout rate and continued to show that in the majors as a reliever. Overall a pitcher will always have lower strikeout rate as a starter and you can see that in his career K/9 as a starter in the majors at 8.4, while 11.9 as a reliever. That number is still a great number, but something happened this year. His K/9 dropped to 7.61 and his walks rose as well.
This has to be partly due to his loss in velocity going from 97 in 2007 to 95 in 2008. He then dropped to 92.5 this year as a full time starter. There is obviously some velocity drop being a starter to preserve his arm. I have the feeling this amount has some to do with his shoulder problems in 2008.
Now that the All-Aughts Team of the Decade roster is complete, it’s time to fill out the two remaining spots available: honorable mention and dishonorable mention. We’re tackling the former today.
The Red Sox have players worthy of being immortalized on the Team of the Decade even though they didn’t crack the roster. Below are the five candidates eligible for honorable mention. Please take your time and vote for the candidate you feel belongs on the roster, either at the end of this article or on the right sidebar, near the top.
For a team that, in any given year, is a collection of sleepers, this team has a number of high-upside contributors looking for either a rebound or breakout season. For the Rays to compete, they will need every player on the roster firing at all cylinders as the 2010 season is going to be – in all likelihood – the most competitive it has been since the 1990s.
Both the Red Sox and Yankees have restocked, the Rays have plugged up their disappointments and shored up their injuries, while the Orioles just got a serious infusion of young talent. The Blue Jays are still an NL West contender in any given year.
In 2004, Boston hired Terry Francona as manager, who had a nasty experience managing the Phillies in their down years, but also had experience managing superstars, such as Michael Jordan in the White Sox’s farm system. He had been training in Oakland, learning from Billy Beane and others. His reputation was one of a balanced background: using statistics to shape his decisions, but leaving plenty of room for the human element.
The going was a bit tough early on for Francona, although largely exacerbated by the awful choice of having Dale Sveum as the third-base coach. Where was Wavin’ Wendell when you needed him? Of course, he made far more right decisions than wrong, steering the club to a World Series title and should receive massive credit for his handling of the situation the Sox found themselves in during the playoffs, down three games to none in the best-of-seven ALCS.
Francona was at times — and still is, to this day — called Francoma for some questionable decisions he makes that is rooted in both the human element of the game and his ability to remain steady and even-keeled day in and day out, understanding the bigger picture.
This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place. Of course the big surprise is who is in first. PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card.
So where are the Yankees? Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs. OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along. The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.
In several pieces (here’s the ESPN Boston one) over the last couple days, it has been made clear by Tim Wakefield that he expects to serve as a full-time member of the Red Sox rotation. Coming off of back surgery in October, he expects to enter spring training healthy. This is a situation that is going to have to be resolved one way or the other. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey aren’t going anywhere and it’s difficult to imagine Daisuke Matsuzaka not being in the rotation. All indications are that the club is moving forward with Clay Buchholz as a long-term, permanent member of the rotation as well. So… where’s the give? Where’s the solution. Something’s gotta happen.I don’t see any way that Wakefield doesn’t open the season in the bullpen (barring injury). Anyone have any thoughts?
Lost in all the hubbub back when Daisuke Matsuzaka was being posted was Boston’s inking of left-handed reliever Hideki Okajima to a two-year deal with a club option. The signing flew rather under the radar given Okajima was a run-of-the-mill reliever in Japan and many felt the signing was to give Matsuzaka a caddy in Boston. (Fire Brand archive: What About Our Hideki? 2/20/07)
When Okajima came in Opening Day and gave up a home run to Royals catcher John Buck on his first pitch, things looked like they were taking a drastic turn for the worse. 19 scoreless appearances later, he finished with a 0.83 ERA in the first half. (Fire Brand archive: Okajima: Ability or Fortuity? 4/12/07.) He developed a changeup that took on a name called the Oki-Doki. (Fire Brand archive: Can Pitch FX track the Okie Dokie? 12/20/09.)
This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez.
The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let’s assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we’ll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option.
Sure Things
Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn’t quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.
The beginning of the 2000s saw saw such names as Dante Bichette, Brian Daubach and Carlos Baerga man the designated hitter position. Beginning in 2003, a new name was added to these ranks: David Ortiz. Once Shea Hillenbrand was ousted to Arizona in May, Ortiz took over the full-time DH job and carved his place in Red Sox lore as the greatest clutch hitter in Boston history (commemorated with a plaque given by John Henry in 2004) and a major reason why Boston won two titles.
Ortiz finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2003, topping 100 RBI for the first time in his career. He had a quiet ALDS against the Athletics save for his rousing double in Game 4, but gave us a hint of what was to come in the ALCS against New York, cranking two home runs. Ortiz then avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal worth $4.5875 million a year after earning $1.25 million. Such cheap production for such valuable output, much to George Steinbrenner’s anger as he reportedly encouraged GM Brian Cashman to ink Ortiz as a free agent, which Cashman nixed.
As Buster Olney stated in a recent piece, “the Red Sox may look to replace David Ortiz if he struggles again in the first half like he did last year.”
Certainly, the struggles of Big Papi have a lot to say about the success of the team. Like we profiled earlier, David Ortiz is undeniably on the downswing of his career. In what should be the last year of his contract, Ortiz will likely have difficulty living up to his $12.5 million price tag.
The plan outlined by Olney involves a specific scenario under which Ortiz repeats his 2009 first-half struggles, leading to a trade of Ortiz, acquiring a catcher and moving Victor Martinez to DH.
Quite the series of moves.
The first obstacle to any such move involves Ortiz underperforming to such a degree that he repeats his putrid April and May, in which he hit just one home run in 178 at-bats on his way to a .185/.289/.286 overall line…
The Chicago Tribune caught up with Carlton Fisk this week amid the new steroid drama circling Mark McGwire. Our old fireplug catcher responded as we would have expected, lambasting McGwire and the other confessers who continue to try and downplay the effects steroids had on them.
Hinske was acquired by Boston during the fateful year of 2006 to provide much-needed depth at first base, the outfield corners and third base (although he never once appeared in a game at third for Boston).
Hinske was similar to Doug Mirabelli during his time in Boston that he had a low batting average (.229 in Boston) but a fair amount of pop. He also had strong plate discipline and was considered a valuable asset to the team, serving as the utilityman in each 2007 postseason series roster.
Just before the deadline the Red Sox signed Jonathan Papelbon for the 2010 season at $9.35 million dollars. With a contract value like that it’s highly unlikely Papelbon is trade material. He has 2011 still under arbitration and with another raise I can’t see him going anywhere.
His contract this year looks like a solid deal. He has been worth 3.2, 2.2, 3.0 and 1.9 WAR over the past four years. Those values have resulted in values of $12, $9.1, $13.5 and $8.8 million in value to the team. That all makes $9.3 million seem like a very good deal. This doesn’t leave any expected value over his contract though. In other words he is being paid his value and makes trading him a difficult proposition.
The next step is looking ahead to his next arbitration case. As long as he maintains his health he can expect a raise again in 2011. Likely to the $12-14 million dollar range. That number makes his value a bit tougher to take. This fact also makes his trade value right now even less. Not many teams can afford to take a $9.3 million dollar closer let alone one due $12-14 in another year.
This is why the Papelbon trade rumors have gone away and never had much interest from the beginning. There are plenty of teams interested in adding a proven closer, but when you have to pay full value and give up players it’s not likely to get much interest.
As Theo Epstein exited Fenway Park under a gorilla suit, the Red Sox were busy trading away their best prospect, shortstop Hanley Ramirez, to the Florida Marlins for third baseman Mike Lowell (considered a throw-in that became much more) and starting pitcher Josh Beckett, an oft-injured 25-year old.
The hope was that Beckett could be the Sox’s new ace, with Pedro Martinez off to New York. The first year in the American League was not kind to the fastball-happy Beckett, who served up 36 home runs en route to the club finishing in third place. Despite Beckett’s struggles, the club moved to sign him to a three-year, $30 million extension ($12 million club option for 2010), which was a hometown discount.
In 2007, Beckett moved away from his fastball (going from using it 69 percent of the time to 63) and finished second in the Cy Young voting, leading Boston to a World Series championship. His 20-7 record along with a 3.27 ERA and second consecutive (and total, as well) season with at least 200 innings pitched along with Mike Lowell’s fantastic season caused many to forget about Hanley Ramirez.
One remarkable thing to note in 2007 is that Beckett suddenly became a control artist, averaging a 1.8 BB/9, a mark he would repeat in 2008. In 2006, that number was 3.3, which wasn’t even a career high and not out of line from 2004 (3.1) and 2005 (2.9.)
As I’m on shift at Rotoworld.com, I noticed the Red Sox have made a couple more signings. Mike took a look at the previous batch. Let’s quickly go through the new names alphabetically (Oh, and the depth chart is updated).
The rankings are rolling in and the Red Sox are entering 2010 with their best two prospects having yet to play a game at Double-A yet. I’m speaking of outfielder Ryan Westmoreland and confirmed starting pitcher Casey Kelly. I want to look at what the rankings are telling us and how we should value these two.
Baseball Prospectus and Minor League Ball have Westmoreland as the Red Sox number one prospect. John Sickels gives him a grade of B+ and gave the following comments.
Join us as we talk about such exiting topics as, arbitration and the hall of fame and pine for actual baseball games again. If for nothing else, listen to this weeks show to hear Paul pull off a front runner for analogy of the year with regard to the Mark McGwire interview.
Also, which “current” Red Sox would you consider potentially “Hall-worthy” by their career’s end?
All that and more on this episode of Fireside Chats after the jump.
Johnny Damon came to Boston for the tail-end of the previous regime, getting a taste for how unpopular the club was among players at the time. Damon’s autobiography, Idiot: Beating “The Curse” and Enjoying the Game of Life, related that an unnamed Red Sox player told him he made a mistake signing with the team.
That was back in 2002, when Damon led the American League with 11 triples, erasing the memories of Carl Everett from our mind. The following year, the tide began to turn for both Damon and the Red Sox, as both became fan favorites. In the offseason, Damon grew lazy and allowed his hair and beard to grow out, coming across as a “Caveman” and being referred to as Jesus.
In a flurry of moves late last week, the Sox signed seven players to minor league deals. For some, the moves will result in mid-season call-ups or a cup of coffee in September. For others, the moves are very curious from a career-advancement standpoint as many are blocked by what is already substantial organizational depth.
Even so, injuries and circumstance will assuredly open the door for a few of these singees and spring training invites. For others, it will be a long season at Pawtucket.
RP Brian Shouse: Another move that doesn’t make much sense for the player at hand, Shouse would have a much better shot at breaking camp in the bigs with some other team. Still, the signing is a great move for the Red Sox, as Shouse can be an excellent situational lefty when the time calls for it. In 2009, lefties batted a combined .224/.243/.373 against Shouse, with 14 Ks and just 1 BB in 67 at-bats.
With arbitration cases kicking in, payroll comes to the forefront of team concerns this week. While the Red Sox only have 4 arbitration cases left to settle, we can start to look at the overall payroll concerns going into 2010 and beyond. 2010 is supposed to be our “bridge” year, but is 2011 really when the Red Sox completely reload?
Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists the Red Sox payroll commitments, and a handy spreadsheet breakdown for the next 4 years as well.
Evan’s article yesterday laid out some basic figures for the four arbitration eligible Red Sox. While his figures for Delcarman, Ramirez, and Hermida seem solid ($1M, $1.5M, $3M) I have more reservations about Papelbon, considering the “favor” he wants to achieve for his fellow closers, and think his case will invariably go all the way into arbitration, where he’ll get close to $9M. I have a feeling he’ll ask for at least $10M, especially after he thinks he should be getting Mariano Rivera-liek deals in free agency.
Currently, the Red Sox payroll stands at $149M, taking into account all new contracts, leftover payments for former players (like Lugo) any options exercise upon contract termination (Wagner, Alex Gonzales) and monies received form other teams (via Seattle for Bill Hall).
This year, four Red Sox are eligible for arbitration. The big name is closer Jonathan Papelbon while Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez (the original one) and Jeremy Hermida round out the other three. (Hideki Okajima recently avoided arbitration, signing for $2.75 million, a raise of $1 million from his 2009 salary.)
I don’t want to use this as another debate about how good or bad Jacoby Ellsbury is or anything, but this is a chance to look at the different metrics and where they come from. I’m going to center on four major metrics and what they attempt to measure as best we know.
First up is John Dewan’s plus/minus measurement from The Fielding Bible. Only leader boards are available for free and the rest is in the yearly Fielding Bible. This has to be one of the most involved as each players ranking involves video scouts watching every play a player makes and grading him against his peers. The resulting plus or minus value is based on how many more or less plays he make than the rest at that position.
This system has a less direct effect on scoring, but how to compare players defensively. Taking a look at 2008 you have Adrian Beltre as the best third basemen in baseball with a +32. On the other end you have Edwin Encarnacion who was a -21. This number is not a run value as I understand it though and more of a comparison tool. It intends to say that Beltre made 53 more plays defensively than Encarnacion in 2008.
The plus/minus system plays into another Dewan system called DRS or Defensive Runs Saved. It takes the the plays that added or subtracted to their plus/minus and assign run values to them. This gain or loss of run values results in a total value based on expected runs. Let’s see the explanation straight from John:
Dougie’s going deep tonight! A popular meme about a day in the life of Doug Mirabelli (there were two such days, I can’t find the other one) was passed around back when Mirabelli was a cult figure in Boston.
It might be odd for some to think that Doug Mirabelli was a cult figure for Red Sox fans, but I can assure you… he was.
Mirabelli was acquired as a response to Jason Varitek breaking his elbow on the since-removed on-deck circle in 2001. At that point, Mirabelli was 30 and quickly gained a reputation for being a defensive whiz with a cannon for an arm behind the plate… as well as launching bombs at the plate without batting gloves, adding a bit of intrigue in the process.
In 141 at-bats for Boston that year, he hit. 270/.360/.518 with nine home runs. I remember attending the August 16, 2001 game in which Ichiro Suzuki and Mark McLemore were ruthlessly gunned out trying to steal by Mirabelli, and the crowd was in an uproar. We couldn’t believe it. Mirabelli had a cannon.
Recently we learned that Daisuke Matsuzaka admitted to hiding a leg injury that occurred in the World Baseball Classic from the Red Sox. Matsuzaka said the injury caused him to overwork his shoulder to maintain velocity and that by admitting to his injury, cause a limit in his training that would have made him not available to the Red sox in his expected full capacity. Matzusaka also claimed the injury was not so much a physical problem but more a struggle mentally to prepare for his starts and overcome the nagging pain he would be forced to endure.
But I couldn’t use my lower body well, and I could not use my full body to generate the power. My fastball was not effective, therefore I lost effectiveness of my other pitches.
This definately can be seen in his first two starts, but looking at his full season there is less evidence that there was something different in his approach. The big numbers show a similar Matsuzaka in both season with a K/BB of 1.64 last year and a 1.80 in 2009. He was actually a bit better at avoiding walks, but a 4.55 BB/9 is still pretty bad.
Let’s look at his arm strength to see if there was any difference. His fastball dropped slightly from 91.8 to 91.0, but nothing to drastic and only his changeup also dropped more than 0.5 mph to match the fastball. Perhaps he was right that he was able to keep his speed up by relying on his shoulder strength, but we should be able to see some changes in his movement charts.
During Derek Lowe’s tenure with the Red Sox, he was a 21-game winner, 42-save closer and 5.42 ERA starter.
Lowe was consistently inconsistent and gave birth to what we all refer to as the “Derek Lowe” face — a face of pure failure.
All Star Game
Lowe was acquired along with Jason Varitek in the Heathcluff Slocumb heist of 1997. After making his major league debut for the Mariners and tossing 53 innings, Lowe saw 16 innings of relief work in Boston. In 1998, Lowe was a swingman, making 10 starts and relieving in 53 others. As 1999 rolled around, Lowe eventually was anointed the closer and finished the year with 15 saves.
With all the positive moves the Red Sox have made this off-season, it’s a bit curious that Casey Kotchman became the first player expendable in the wake of the Adrian Beltre acquisition.
Following the trade, the party line claimed that Kotchman became obsolete – and expendable – with four starting-caliber corner infielders on the roster. While it is certainly true that the team does not need four such players to man two positions (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, Kotchman), it seems as if the team has forgotten that they have been aggressively shopping Mike Lowell since November.
Following a trade of Mike Lowell – whose occurrence is a near certainty – the team is likely to be without a quality reserve corner infielder. Sure, Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall will be able to man the position in the event of injury and off-days, but what kind of upgrade do they provide over Kotchman?
In the event of a significant injury to Beltre or Youkilis, both Hall and Lowrie would be completely miscast as a full-time option. In addition, with Beltre missing 51 games this past season, entrusting the insurance policy to either option is a very dangerous proposition…
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The rankings are rolling in and the Red Sox are entering 2010 with their best two prospects having yet to play a game at Double-A yet. I’m speaking of outfielder Ryan Westmoreland and confirmed starting pitcher Casey Kelly. I want to look at what the rankings are telling us and how we should value these two.
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