Wrapping Up the Offseason

Spring Training is only a day away, and it’s been a busy offseason for the Red Sox in 2010. The team struggled in the playoffs last year after putting up another solid regular season; tweaks were made to sew up the loose ends on the team’s defensive deficiencies. Another front line starter was brought into the fold. Is Lackey here to supplant Josh Beckett in 2011 and beyond, or simply be another high priced compliment to the rotation?

With the Olympics currently underway, let’s review what’s happened this offseason, and see what moves the teams made deserved a spot on the podium.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre replaces Mike Lowell
While the Lowell trade was derailed by an injury the fan base is still scratching their heads over (was Lowell hiding it, was the organization?), the acquisition of Beltre signaled the end of Lowell’s regular playing time. Arguably the most talented defensive third basemen in baseball, Beltre brings his slick glove to Fenway to provide the teams with the defensive wins they had lacked all last season. Even returning just to his 2008 level of offensive woudl make Beltre a 4 WAR player, a huge bonus for the Red Sox with minimal risk.

Super Advertising Sporting Event Squares

In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don’t sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding?

10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation.
Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he’s paid his dues over the past decade.

Adaptation and working the market

Since Moneyball was published in 2003 there has been a clear misunderstanding of what the book meant. I’m sure much of this is by people who never read the book, but perhaps some who missed the message. The message that is spread and widely understood is that Billy Beane was a huge proponent of OBP and that that wins games. If you ask anyone at a baseball game or on a sports talk show what was the point of Moneyball 90% will say OBP. Of course that 90% will also say that Billy Beane wrote the book.

So what was the point in a cliff notes version? Learn what the market has failed to value and use it to your advantage. As of the writing of the book OBP was a largely ignored stat and teams were viewing players like Adam Kennedy as quality players for a solid batting average. This made a market for Beane to attack and he did so effectively. The problem is teams adapted and not only followed his model with greater finances, but also stole his staff.

One $9 Million Question Answered, One More Arises

Adrian Beltre, The Player

This off-season has had quite an emphasis on trusting higher-order statistical metrics as, surely, both Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre do not fit the conventional mold for key cogs on championship caliber teams. Two players whose values lie predominantly with their defensive production, 2010 will be a trial by fire for the front office’s new-fangled policy of relying on fielding.

Sabermetricians worldwide rejoice at this move towards the mainstream (myself included). As a Red Sox fan, however, I find myself wishing some other team were the guinea pig.

Which begs the question: what kind of player are the Red Sox getting with Adrian Beltre?

A Move Within a Move

Maybe that last point runs contrary to the whole business side of sports – that, because you pay these players so much, they should do whatever the hell you tell ‘em to do. He should be the good soldier, not reply, and go into camp as Beltre’s backup. If he whines about not playing, too bad! Go get a day job!

Though, in reality, that’s not the way things work. Aging veterans who have earned their stripes always get traded – and this may very well be the last bastion of humanity left in the business side of sports…

Red Sox and Adrian Beltre Agree to Terms

Someone pinch me… feels like I’m dreaming. Peter Gammons reports the Red Sox have inked Beltre to a one-year deal worth $9 million, with a player option for an additional $5 million.

Is Casey Kotchman our best bet at first?

As comprised today, Boston has two choices when it comes to filling it’s first/third hole: Slide Youkilis over to third and commit to Nick Johnson as first-baseman… or leave the window open for Beltre with the expectation that Kotchman ends up at first.

The question is:

Is Nick Johnson appreciably better than Casey Kotchman based on actual value?

To me, it’s a rather simple answer: No. Casey Kotchman is the better option than Nick Johnson.

Evaluating the 2010 team so far

After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it’s possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn’t very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I’m going to look at the roster without any third baseman.

*Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it’s an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them.

Better than 2009

Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.

Pressing reasons to improve the infield defense

There has been a lot of stress placed on the defense this offseason and that looks to continue with the interest in Adrian Beltre to replace Mike Lowell at third base. Other than the obvious value gained from a solid defense is there another reason to make sure you obtain positive gains this year in defense? I think I found it and it starts with Clay Buchholz.

With Buchholz taking on the number three spot in the rotation there was an interesting number that seemed in common for our top three. That number is groundball percentage, which Buchholz led the team in during his limited appearances at 53.8%. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have established new career levels above 47% meaning 3 out of 5 starts by the team should have a large amount of work for the infield.

Lowell to Texas, Beltre to Boston… And a Cherry Named Maximiliano

Lowell to Texas, Beltre to Boston?

This rumor has been cooking for a long time, and it may finally be ready for consumption. According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Red Sox and Rangers have a deal in place that would send Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers, with the Sox receiving top catching prospect Max Ramirez. Many expect the trade to be a precursor to the signing of Adrian Beltre.

As per Rosenthal, the Sox would contribute a substantial portion of Lowell’s contract – in his words, with the Sox “eating nearly all of [Lowell’s] 12 [million dollar] salary.” Dan Barbarisi of the Providence Journal, on the other hand, has the Sox providing “at least half” of the deal. We likely won’t know for some time which of the two price tags will win out, but be certain that it will significantly affect the team’s outlook for the remainder of the winter.

Is this the Sox answer to the Granderson deal in New York? Probably not. This isn’t the kind of blockbuster trade that substantially alters the team for 2010. In fact, the trade is curious in the sense that it would significantly hinder the team’s ability to maneuver for free agents for the rest of the off-season – and could put them out of the running for either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday…

Nightengale: Beltre to Sox a Possibility

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, a Sox acquisition of Adrian Beltre is becoming a real possibility. As per Nightengale’s Twitter account,

“It wouldn’t be surprising if Beltre falls into the Red Sox lap if he doesn’t accept arbitration from the Mariners.”

The move would be predicated by Beltre declining arbitration, which SI’s Jon Heyman reports as a growing likelihood. Beltre, 30, qualified as a Type B free agent this offseason, so he would not cost the Sox a draft pick.

Beltre battled injuries this past season, batting .265/.304/.379 with only 8 home runs in 449 at-bats. Beltre remains an elite fielding third baseman, however, as he posted a 14.3 UZR at the hot corner in 2009.

Should Beltre regain his hitting prowess from previous seasons, he could present a nice upgrade over a declining Mike Lowell…