All-Aughts Team of the Decade RP3: Hideki Okajima

Lost in all the hubbub back when Daisuke Matsuzaka was being posted was Boston’s inking of left-handed reliever Hideki Okajima to a two-year deal with a club option. The signing flew rather under the radar given Okajima was a run-of-the-mill reliever in Japan and many felt the signing was to give Matsuzaka a caddy in Boston. (Fire Brand archive: What About Our Hideki? 2/20/07)

When Okajima came in Opening Day and gave up a home run to Royals catcher John Buck on his first pitch, things looked like they were taking a drastic turn for the worse. 19 scoreless appearances later, he finished with a 0.83 ERA in the first half. (Fire Brand archive: Okajima: Ability or Fortuity? 4/12/07.) He developed a changeup that took on a name called the Oki-Doki. (Fire Brand archive: Can Pitch FX track the Okie Dokie? 12/20/09.)

The state of the bullpen

This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez.

The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let’s assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we’ll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option.

Sure Things

Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn’t quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.

Papelbon, three others file for arbitration

This year, four Red Sox are eligible for arbitration. The big name is closer Jonathan Papelbon while Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez (the original one) and Jeremy Hermida round out the other three. (Hideki Okajima recently avoided arbitration, signing for $2.75 million, a raise of $1 million from his 2009 salary.)

Can Pitch FX track the Okie Dokie?

Reader Bill in FLA asked about a few pitcher profiles we could run in Pitch FX, and the first player I thought would be an excellent example of Pitch FX’s capabilities and limitations is Hideki Okajima.

Part of the limitations of Pitch FX, is that until the technology has a way to verify the exact pitch the pitcher intended to throw, the classification is an approximation of the overall speed, movement, and release points the pitches have. This is also why some pitchers have their pitches classified incorrectly, or in Oki’s case, a severe change in classification that was most likely caused by a change in one of those above factors.

TOR 11, BOS 5: Too Much To Ask

Michael Bowden was stretched too thin, giving up five hits and five earned runs in just over two innings of work. The bullpen did not help matters, as Hunter Jones handed the Blue Jays another four on the way to an 11-5 loss.

Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz would not go silently into the good night, but the pitching, or lack thereof, proved to be a bit too much to overcome, especially in a rain-shortened game.

POLL: Best playoff SP duo?

Testing the Papelbon Trade Theory

The popular rumor growing in MLB trade circles has Red Sox closer Jon Papelbon being traded in the offseason with Billy Wagner assuming closer duties for 2010. With the claims gaining steam, it’s time to look at the Sox’ possible 2010 bullpen scenarios.

The 2009 Jon Papelbon

Jon Papelbon hasn’t been the same JON PAPELBON he was from 2006-2008. It’s somewhat surprising that the baseball community has been as down on Pap as they have been, as he still has a 1.81 ERA and is 34/37 in save opportunities this season.

However, there has been a palpable decline in his numbers and rate indicators this season. While his strikeout rate has been stable since last season, as too has his velocity for the most part, his rising walk rate has been at the root of his relative “struggles” this season…

Tweets on the Red Sox’s 25-man roster

In a homage to Twitter, the new social media application that is changing how news is delivered (in the same vein how blogs changed everything) I bring to you a summary of each Red Sox player on the 25-man roster in 140 characters or less (the maximum number of characters you can enter on Twitter).

Have Twitter? Follow me. Tim’s on too. Oh, and Fire Brand has one as well. You’ll notice that had you followed Fire Brand, you would have gotten all these tweets last night.

A slumping Bay and improving Pap.

How many “clean” innings do you think Jonathan Papelbon has in 2009? The answer is…9. Pap has nine innings without allowing a walk or a hit. And of course his FIP is a less than acceptable 3.83.

Ok, that is not terrible. But for a reliever, and what we are accustomed to, Pap needs to continue to improve in order to get back to what he used to be. His line drives allowed are as high as ever, his home runs are up, and his walks are up, while his K’s are down just a tad.

He is also inducing ground balls at a concerning clip, at least comparatively. As Pap allowed ground balls 49 percent of the time in 2008. But right now it is sitting at 29 percent. Which of course is roughly the same as what he did in 2007.

But with all the other numbers in the wrong direction, it emphasizes them all. He is third in FIP this month, albeit in a very, very small sample. And the leader in FIP during June? Daniel Bard, our future closer.

BAL 11, BOS 10: Shocked

Even the best bullpen in baseball can have off days. This was just of the extreme variety.