10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?

10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

The state of the bullpen

This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez.

The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let’s assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we’ll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option.

Sure Things

Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn’t quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.

Papelbon gets his money

Just before the deadline the Red Sox signed Jonathan Papelbon for the 2010 season at $9.35 million dollars. With a contract value like that it’s highly unlikely Papelbon is trade material. He has 2011 still under arbitration and with another raise I can’t see him going anywhere.

His contract this year looks like a solid deal. He has been worth 3.2, 2.2, 3.0 and 1.9 WAR over the past four years. Those values have resulted in values of $12, $9.1, $13.5 and $8.8 million in value to the team. That all makes $9.3 million seem like a very good deal. This doesn’t leave any expected value over his contract though. In other words he is being paid his value and makes trading him a difficult proposition.

The next step is looking ahead to his next arbitration case. As long as he maintains his health he can expect a raise again in 2011. Likely to the $12-14 million dollar range. That number makes his value a bit tougher to take. This fact also makes his trade value right now even less. Not many teams can afford to take a $9.3 million dollar closer let alone one due $12-14 in another year.

This is why the Papelbon trade rumors have gone away and never had much interest from the beginning. There are plenty of teams interested in adding a proven closer, but when you have to pay full value and give up players it’s not likely to get much interest.

Payroll Pressures

With arbitration cases kicking in, payroll comes to the forefront of team concerns this week. While the Red Sox only have 4 arbitration cases left to settle, we can start to look at the overall payroll concerns going into 2010 and beyond. 2010 is supposed to be our “bridge” year, but is 2011 really when the Red Sox completely reload?

Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists the Red Sox payroll commitments, and a handy spreadsheet breakdown for the next 4 years as well.

Evan’s article yesterday laid out some basic figures for the four arbitration eligible Red Sox. While his figures for Delcarman, Ramirez, and Hermida seem solid ($1M, $1.5M, $3M) I have more reservations about Papelbon, considering the “favor” he wants to achieve for his fellow closers, and think his case will invariably go all the way into arbitration, where he’ll get close to $9M. I have a feeling he’ll ask for at least $10M, especially after he thinks he should be getting Mariano Rivera-liek deals in free agency.

Currently, the Red Sox payroll stands at $149M, taking into account all new contracts, leftover payments for former players (like Lugo) any options exercise upon contract termination (Wagner, Alex Gonzales) and monies received form other teams (via Seattle for Bill Hall).

Papelbon, three others file for arbitration

This year, four Red Sox are eligible for arbitration. The big name is closer Jonathan Papelbon while Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez (the original one) and Jeremy Hermida round out the other three. (Hideki Okajima recently avoided arbitration, signing for $2.75 million, a raise of $1 million from his 2009 salary.)

The Red Sox’s Christmas List

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Holidays to everyone!

While I celebrate both Christmas and Hannukah, there’s no denying the holiday that stops America in its tracks — that’s Christmas. That’s why I’ve chosen Christmas as the holiday of choice to reveal certain Red Sox personnel’s holiday gift lists that were acquired in some unseemly ways. And away we go…

An Introduction to Pitch FX

In 2007, pitching analysis was changed forever with the addition of the Pitch FX system. While the technology in 2007 was not as widely available throughout all ballparks as it is today, it has helped the average fan be able to take a critical eye to pitches. Have you ever wondered how much vertical break Barry Zito’s curveball had? How about the angle Randy Johnson’s slider took as it swept across the plate? What about how our own Jonathan Papelbon throws his fastballs? Now you have the power.

All-Aughts Team of the Decade CL: Jonathan Papelbon

Keith Foulke gave his right arm to pitch the Sox to the 2004 World Series. I’m forever appreciative of what Foulke did — moreso than most people, I think — but it’s obvious that Jonathan Papelbon ranks as the closer of the All-Aughts Team of the Decade.

Papelbon holds the record for most career saves in Boston — all this despite entering 2010 at the tender age of 29. Paps’ 151 saves blew past Bob Stanley’s old record. Those saves were all legitimate too: his 1.84 ERA in two innings short of 300 IP is outstanding. Among Boston relievers who had 80 percent of their appearances out of the bullpen as well as a minimum of 250 innings pitched, Papelbon checks in at numero uno on the list for ERA.

In 2006, Keith Foulke was supposed to be the closer despite injuries nagging him. When Terry Francona needed a closer on April 5 against Texas, he did not summon Foulke. No, Papelbon was the guy. He would go on to rattle off seven straight saves, finish the season with 35 saves, be named to the All-Star team and rank second in Rookie of the Year voting (Justin Verlander). His 0.92 ERA that season still stands as a personal best

LAA 7, BOS 6: The End Is Here

That one stings. Jon Papelbon’s ninth inning meltdown ended the playoff journey for Boston, as the Red Sox are swept by the Los Angeles Angels, 7-6.

After leading for the entire game, Vlad Guerrero’s single off Papelbon in the top of the ninth was the culmination of a completely lackluster post-season, the end of a pretty abysmal weekend for Boston sports in general. But… there’s always next year.

The Turning Point, The Injury Front, and Sleep Tremors

The Turning Point

There’s no better way to enter the playoffs than on a hot streak, unless, of course, your opponent is reeling in defeat.

The ninth inning of last night’s game must have put a real damper on the spirit in the Los Angeles clubhouse. After reclaiming their lead in the ninth against the unhittable, untouchable Daniel Bard, the Sox were able to steal the victory away when closer Brian Fuentes unraveled with one out to go.

As David Ortiz walked to the plate in the ninth against a left-handed Fuentes, hearts were simultaneously dropping all over New England. Two outs, down one, no one on, and Ortiz hasn’t been able to touch lefties since 1945. The game was all but over…