Archive for the ‘Josh Beckett’ Category:
It’s rumored that the Red Sox and Josh Beckett are in strong discussions on a new contract according to Gordon Edes at ESPN Boston. The target is the end of spring training to finalize something or weight until the offseason. I have made my opinion on Beckett’s contract known at Yawkey Way Academy and came to a value of 4/$64, but this was before we saw the changes to the 2010 market and the addition of John Lackey.
It’s tough to say what Beckett will demand in these talks and how much injury language he will accept. The first point we must remember is that while Lackey came to Boston at 5/$82.5 he was a free agent and required top dollar. The Red Sox know that 2010 will include Beckett in the fold, but if Beckett wants long term security he might have to give up a few dollars.
Another point is that a new contract would up his payment in 2010. He is currently set to be paid $12.5 million this year, but any extension would likely include a solid raise in the 2010 season.
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With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it’s a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010?
10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate – While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.
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There has been a lot of talk this offseason of how Josh Beckett will approach 2010 with John Lackey signed for the next five years. Will he be pissed or determined? We can’t know, but while Curt Schilling is feeling free to share his opinion again I’ll give my reason why he’s wrong and Beckett will be a free agent after 2010.
The first reason we already discussed a bit, but there are plenty of questions about Beckett’s health. I discussed this on Fireside chat #68, but the central point is Beckett has injury history that can be very concerning. While many will say what about Lackey’s history I also discussed that in the podcast. He has an injury that is less severe and from his velocity and movement looked better with rest.
Beckett was able to top 200 IP for just the third time in his carer this year, but the last month was rough and might have been better served with a bit of rest. His back was a problem and could be seen in his lower velocity and some movement problems. This is no time to sign a pitcher and you should definitely wait to see how he does in 2010.
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As Theo Epstein exited Fenway Park under a gorilla suit, the Red Sox were busy trading away their best prospect, shortstop Hanley Ramirez, to the Florida Marlins for third baseman Mike Lowell (considered a throw-in that became much more) and starting pitcher Josh Beckett, an oft-injured 25-year old.
The hope was that Beckett could be the Sox’s new ace, with Pedro Martinez off to New York. The first year in the American League was not kind to the fastball-happy Beckett, who served up 36 home runs en route to the club finishing in third place. Despite Beckett’s struggles, the club moved to sign him to a three-year, $30 million extension ($12 million club option for 2010), which was a hometown discount.
In 2007, Beckett moved away from his fastball (going from using it 69 percent of the time to 63) and finished second in the Cy Young voting, leading Boston to a World Series championship. His 20-7 record along with a 3.27 ERA and second consecutive (and total, as well) season with at least 200 innings pitched along with Mike Lowell’s fantastic season caused many to forget about Hanley Ramirez.
One remarkable thing to note in 2007 is that Beckett suddenly became a control artist, averaging a 1.8 BB/9, a mark he would repeat in 2008. In 2006, that number was 3.3, which wasn’t even a career high and not out of line from 2004 (3.1) and 2005 (2.9.)
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By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services.
Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don’t attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names.
The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein’s first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract — so really, only two free agent years were bought out.
That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can’t really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn’t seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he’s been very good on the pitching ledger, so he’s stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.
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Theo’s “95-Win Team”
In recent years, one of the most important axioms put forth by the Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office is the law of the “95-Win Team”. According to this directive, the team’s goal is to target 95-wins annually in an effort to compete every season. This is really a great piece of wisdom, as a team that wins 95 games will make the playoffs most years. In fact, the Wild Card winner since 2003 – the first year Theo took the esteemed office of Red Sox General Manger – has averaged a record of just about 95-67.
However, this doctrine relies on one major assumption – that this team will always be able to perform up to their expected level…
Josh Beckett’s Extension
Over the past few days, rumors have been circulating that the Sox and the Josh Beckett camp have been discussing a contract extension. Adding fuel to the rumors, Beckett and agent Michael Moye have indicated that there will be no hometown discount for the Sox, so the team will have to be ready to shell out quite a bit of cash.
Introducing the FireBrand Mailbag
And, finally, introducing the FireBrand mailbag, where we will answer all of your darkest, most burning questions about Red Sox Baseball. If you would like to ask the writers a question to be answered on the site, please forward your inquiries to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com.
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In the coming weeks, Josh Beckett and his agent (Michael Moye) will meet with Theo Epstein and brass to discuss an extension.
There’s no way that Beckett sniffs $161 million, let alone $150 million, but I’m here to tell you there’s absolutely no chance Beckett settles for less than $100 million over his total value.
In the end, I’m calling a six-year, $111 million deal for Captain Kickass.
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As is customary at the conclusion of every MLB season, the Boston Red Sox are now the proud holders of a number of expiring contracts and team options.
For a team swept in the opening round of the playoffs, there is often the urge to spend big on the free agent market in an attempt to show the fans that they are committed to winning after a badly failed run.
However, this may not be the case with the 2010 Sox, as they are retaining most of their starting roster – many at excellent prices for their skill level (i.e. Lester for $3.75 million in 2010) – with significant questions at left field and shortstop only.
Now, with the end of the season upon us and free agency approaching, who will the Sox choose to keep around?
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New Poll Question: What do you expect out of the Kaz/Buchholz game Sunday?
- Gotta love that home cookin’, baby.
- For Kaz to be a Sox killer again and Buchholz to wilt.
- A pitching duel with the Sox bats not showing up again.
- It’ll come down to who hits more home runs.
I’m choosing to be optimistic and say it’s all about the home cooking! Leave your line predictions in the comments and vote in the poll on the right.
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